Nomogram predicting the risk of recurrence after curative-intent resection of primary non-metastatic gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors: An analysis of the U.S. Neuroendocrine Tumor Study Group.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Merath K
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5992105 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Apr
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Nomogram predicting the risk of recurrence after curative-intent resection of primary non-metastatic gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors: An analysis of the U.S. Neuroendocrine Tumor Study Group.
Merath Katiuscha K Bagante Fabio F Beal Eliza W EW Lopez-Aguiar Alexandra G AG Poultsides George G Makris Eleftherios E Rocha Flavio F Kanji Zaheer Z Weber Sharon S Fisher Alexander A Fields Ryan R Krasnick Bradley A BA Idrees Kamran K Smith Paula M PM Cho Cliff C Beems Megan M Schmidt Carl R CR Dillhoff Mary M Maithel Shishir K SK Pawlik Timothy M TM
Journal of surgical oncology 20180215 5
<h4>Background</h4>The risk of recurrence after resection of non-metastatic gastro-entero-pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (GEP-NET) is poorly defined. We developed/validated a nomogram to predict risk of recurrence after curative-intent resection.<h4>Methods</h4>A training set to develop the nomogram and test set for validation were identified. The predictive ability of the nomogram was assessed using c-indices.<h4>Results</h4>Among 1477 patients, 673 (46%) were included in the training set and ...[more]
Similar Datasets
Project description:BACKGROUND:The biological behavior of early recurrence is more invasive and the prognosis is worse in gastric cancer (GC). The risk of early recurrence (ER) for GC in stage II/III has not been reported of which the majority of GC patients are in China. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the ER of gastric cancer in stage II/III. METHODS:The medical records of 1511 consecutive stage II/III GC patients who received resections were retrospectively reviewed. They were randomly classified into either a development or validation group at a ratio of 7:3. The nomogram was constructed based on prognostic factors using logistic regression analysis and was validated by bootstrap resampling and validation dataset, respectively. Concordance index (C-index) values and calibration curves were used to evaluate the predictive accuracy and discriminatory capability. RESULTS:Three hundred eleven patients experienced ER, accounting for 20.58% of the GC patients investigated. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified tumors located at upper, middle third, or mixed, a positive lymph node ratio ? 0.335, pTNM stage III, lymphocyte count < 1.5 × 109/L, postoperative infection complications and adjuvant chemotherapy < 6?cycles were all independent predictors for ER after curative resection of stage II/III GC. The C-index value obtained for the model was 0.780 (95% CI, 0.747-0.813), and the calibration curves of validation group yielded a C-index value of 0.739 (95% CI, 0.684-0.794), suggesting the practicability of the model. CONCLUSIONS:The nomogram which was developed for predicting ER of stage II/III GC after surgery had good accuracy and was verified through both internal and external validation. The nomogram established can assist clinicians in determining the optimal therapy strategies in counseling, adjuvant treatments, and subsequent follow-up planning.
| S-EPMC6923869 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:The recurrence after curative surgery of the rectal adenocarcinoma is a serious complication, considered as a failure of the therapeutic strategy. The aim of this study was to identify the different prognostic factors affecting the recurrence of adenocarcinoma of the rectum. METHODS:A retrospective analysis of patients operated for adenocarcinoma of the rectum between January 2000 and December 2015 was conducted. The study of the recurrence rate and prognostic factors was performed through the Kaplan Meier survival curve and the Cox regression analysis. RESULTS:During the study period, 188 patients underwent curative surgery for rectal adenocarcinoma, among which 53 had a recurrence. The recurrence rate was 44.6% at 5?years. The multivariate analysis identified four parameters independently associated with the risk of recurrence after curative surgery: a distal margin ??2?cm (HR?=?6.8, 95% CI 2.7-16.6, 6), extracapsular invasion of lymph node metastasis (HR?=?4.4, 95% CI 1.3-14), tumor stenosis (HR?=?4.3, 95% CI 1.2-15.2), and parietal invasion (pT3/T4 disease) (HR?=?3, 95% CI 1.1-9.4). CONCLUSION:The determination of the prognostic factors affecting the recurrence of rectal adenocarcinoma after curative surgery allows us to define the high-risk patients for recurrence. TRIAL REGISTRATION:ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03899870 . Registered on 2 February 2019, retrospectively registered.
| S-EPMC6819540 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundNumerous studies have shown that hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) without microvascular invasion (MVI) may have better outcomes. This study established a preoperative MVI risk nomogram mainly incorporating three related risk factors of MVI in BCLC 0/A HCC after surgery.MethodsIndependent predictors for the risk of MVI were investigated, and an MVI risk nomogram was established based on 60 patients in the training group who underwent curative hepatectomy for BCLC 0/A HCC and validated using a dataset in the validation group.ResultsUnivariate analysis in the training group showed that hepatitis viral B (HBV) DNA (P=0.034), tumor size (P<0.001), CT value in the venous phase (P=0.039), CT value in the delayed phase (P=0.017), peritumoral enhancement (P=0.013), visible small blood vessels in the arterial phase (P=0.002), and distance from the tumor to the inferior vena cava (IVC) (DTI, P=0.004) were risk factors significantly associated with the presence of MVI. According to multivariate analysis, the independent predictive factors of MVI, including tumor size (P=0.002), CT value in the delayed phase (P=0.018), and peritumoral enhancement (P=0.057), were incorporated in the corresponding nomogram. The nomogram displayed an unadjusted C-index of 0.851 and a bootstrap-corrected C-index of 0.832. Calibration curves also showed good agreement on the presence of MVI. ROC curve analyses showed that the nomogram had a large AUC (0.851).ConclusionsThe proposed nomogram consisting of tumor size, CT value in the delayed phase, and peritumoral enhancement was associated with MVI risk in BCLC 0/A HCC following curative hepatectomy.
| S-EPMC6683833 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundRecent studies have shown that the systemic inflammation and nutritional indicators are prognostic for a variety of malignancies. However, only limited data have so far demonstrated their usefulness in gastrointestinal mesenchymal tumors (GIST).MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed the data of GIST patients who underwent radical surgery in Beijing hospital from October 2004 to July 2018. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to compare several commonly used inflammatory and nutritional indicators. The indicators with largest AUC were further analysis. Optimal cut-off values of those indicators in predicting recurrence-free survival (RFS) were determined. Kaplan-Meier curve and the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to assess the prognostic values. We then used univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses to identify prognostic factors that were associated with RFS.ResultsIn total, 160 patients who underwent surgery for GIST were included in the study. The median survival time was 34.5 months, with 1-, 3-, and 5-year RFS rates of 96.1%, 84.7%, and 80.8%, respectively. The inflammatory and nutritional indicators with largest AUC were Systemic immunoinflammatory Index (SII) and Geriatric Nutrition Risk Index (GNRI), reached 0.650 and 0.713, respectively. The optimal cutoff of GNRI and SII were 98.3, and 820.0, respectively. Univariate analysis showed that GNRI, SII, KI67, surgery method, tumor location, tumor size, and mitotic index were all significant prognostic indicators of RFS. After multivariate Cox analysis, independent prognostic factors for RFS in GIST included tumor location, mitotic index, tumor size, and GNRI (HR=2.802,95% CI: 1.045 to 7.515, p = 0.041). Besides, SII also tended to be associated with RFS (HR = 2.970, 95% CI: 0.946 to 9.326, p = 0.062).ConclusionsHigh GNRI is an independent prognostic factor for RFS in GIST, while SII can be considered as a prognostic factor. GNRI and SII can be used as tools to evaluate the prognosis of patients before surgery, helping doctors to better treat high-risk patients.
| S-EPMC8350728 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Pancreatic metastasis is a rare cause for pancreas surgery and often a sign of advanced disease no chance of curative-intent treatment. However, surgery for metastasis might be a promising approach to improve patients' survival. The aim of this study was to analyze the surgical and oncological outcome after pancreatic resection of pancreatic metastasis. METHODS:This is a retrospective cohort analysis of a prospectively-managed database of patients undergoing pancreatic resection at the University of Freiburg Pancreatic Center from 2005 to 2017. RESULTS:In total, 29 of 1297 (2%) patients underwent pancreatic resection due to pancreatic metastasis. 20 (69%) patients showed metastasis of renal cell carcinoma (mRCC), followed by metastasis of melanoma (n?=?5, 17%), colon cancer (n?=?2, 7%), ovarian cancer (n?=?1, 3%) and neuroendocrine tumor of small intestine (n?=?1, 3%). Two (7%) patients died perioperatively. Median follow-up was 76.4 (range 21-132) months. 5-year and overall survival rates were 82% (mRCC 89% vs. non-mRCC 67%) and 70% (mRCC 78% vs. non-mRCC 57%), respectively. Patients with mRCC had shorter disease-free survival (14 vs. 22 months) than patients with other primary tumor entities. CONCLUSION:Despite malignant disease, overall survival of patients after metastasectomy for pancreatic metastasis is acceptable. Better survival appears to be associated with the primary tumor entity. Further research should focus on molecular markers to elucidate the mechanisms of pancreatic metastasis to choose the suitable therapeutic approach for the individual patient.
| S-EPMC7138763 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundLate recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver resection is regarded as a de novo tumor primarily related to the severity of underlying liver disease. We aimed to investigate risk factors, especially spleen volume, associated with late recurrence in patients with HCC and cirrhosis.MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed 301 patients with HCC and cirrhosis who received curative resection and preoperative MRI. Patients were followed for late recurrence for at least 2 years. Spleen volume was automatically measured on MRI with artificial intelligence techniques, and qualitative MRI imaging features reflecting tumor aggressiveness were evaluated. Uni- and multivariable Cox regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors and a risk score was developed to predict late recurrence.ResultsEighty-four (27.9%) patients developed late recurrence during follow-up. Preoperative spleen volume was independently associated with late recurrence, and patients with a volume > 370 cm3 had significantly higher recurrence risk (hazard ratio 2.02, 95%CI 1.31-3.12, p = 0.002). Meanwhile, no qualitative imaging features were associated with late recurrence. A risk score was developed based on the APRI score, spleen volume, and tumor number, which had time-dependent area under the curve ranging from 0.700 to 0.751. The risk score at a cutoff of 0.42 allowed for the identification of two risk categories with distinct risk of late recurrence.ConclusionsPreoperative spleen volume on MRI was independently associated with late recurrence after curative-intent resection in patients with HCC and cirrhosis. A risk score was proposed for individualized risk prediction and tailoring of postoperative surveillance strategies.Critical relevance statementSpleen volume measured on MRI with the aid of AI techniques was independently predictive of late HCC recurrence after liver resection. A risk score based on spleen volume, APRI score, and tumor number was developed for accurate prediction of late recurrence.Key points• Preoperative spleen volume measured on MRI was independently associated with late recurrence after curative-intent resection in patients with HCC and cirrhosis. • Qualitative MRI features reflecting tumor aggressiveness were not associated with late recurrence. • A risk score based on spleen volume was developed for accurate prediction of late recurrence and risk stratification.
| S-EPMC10834928 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background Early tumor recurrence is one of the most significant poor prognostic factors for patients with HCC after R0 resection. The aim of this study is to identify risk factors of early recurrence, in addition, to develop a nomogram model predicting early recurrence of HCC patients. Methods A total of 481 HCC patients after R0 resection were enrolled and divided into a training cohort (n = 337) and a validation cohort (n = 144). Risk factors for early recurrence were determined based on Cox regression analysis in the training cohort. A nomogram incorporating independent risk predictors was established and validated. Results Early recurrence occurred in 37.8% of the 481 patients who underwent curative liver resection of HCC. AFP ≥ 400 ng/mL (HR: 1.662; P = 0.008), VEGF-A among 127.8 to 240.3 pg/mL (HR: 1.781, P = 0.012), VEGF-A > 240.3 pg/mL (HR: 2.552, P < 0.001), M1 subgroup of MVI (HR: 2.221, P = 0.002), M2 subgroup of MVI (HR: 3.120, P < 0.001), intratumor necrosis (HR: 1.666, P = 0.011), surgical margin among 5.0 to 10.0 mm (HR: 1.601, P = 0.043) and surgical margin < 5.0 mm (HR: 1.790, P = 0.012) were found to be independent risk factors for recurrence-free survival in the training cohort and were used for constructing the nomogram. The nomogram indicated good predictive performance with an AUC of 0.781 (95% CI: 0.729-0.832) and 0.808 (95% CI: 0.731-0.886) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Conclusions Elevated serum concentrations of AFP and VEGF-A, microvascular invasion, intratumor necrosis, surgical margin were independent risk factors of early intrahepatic recurrence. A reliable nomogram model which incorporated blood biomarkers and pathological variables was established and validated. The nomogram achieved desirable effectiveness in predicting early recurrence in HCC patients.
| S-EPMC10063973 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceAmpullary adenocarcinoma is a rare malignant neoplasm that arises within the duodenal ampullary complex. The role of adjuvant therapy (AT) in the treatment of ampullary adenocarcinoma has not been clearly defined.ObjectiveTo determine if long-term survival after curative-intent resection of ampullary adenocarcinoma may be improved by selection of patients for AT directed by histologic subtype.Design, setting, and participantsThis multinational, retrospective cohort study was conducted at 12 institutions from April 1, 2000, to July 31, 2017, among 357 patients with resected, nonmetastatic ampullary adenocarcinoma receiving surgery alone or AT. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify covariates associated with overall survival. The surgery alone and AT cohorts were matched 1:1 by propensity scores based on the likelihood of receiving AT or by survival hazard from Cox modeling. Overall survival was compared with Kaplan-Meier estimates.ExposuresAdjuvant chemotherapy (fluorouracil- or gemcitabine-based) with or without radiotherapy.Main outcomes and measuresOverall survival.ResultsA total of 357 patients (156 women and 201 men; median age, 65.8 years [interquartile range, 58-74 years]) underwent curative-intent resection of ampullary adenocarcinoma. Patients with intestinal subtype had a longer median overall survival compared with those with pancreatobiliary subtype (77 vs 54 months; P = .05). Histologic subtype was not associated with AT administration (intestinal, 52.9% [101 of 191]; and pancreatobiliary, 59.5% [78 of 131]; P = .24). Patients with pancreatobiliary histologic subtype most commonly received gemcitabine-based regimens (71.0% [22 of 31]) or combinations of gemcitabine and fluorouracil (12.9% [4 of 31]), whereas treatment of those with intestinal histologic subtype was more varied (fluorouracil, 50.0% [17 of 34]; gemcitabine, 44.1% [15 of 34]; P = .01). In the propensity score-matched cohort, AT was not associated with a survival benefit for either histologic subtype (intestinal: hazard ratio, 1.21; 95% CI, 0.67-2.16; P = .53; pancreatobiliary: hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% CI, 0.66-2.76; P = .41).Conclusions and relevanceAdjuvant therapy was more frequently used in patients with poor prognostic factors but was not associated with demonstrable improvements in survival, regardless of tumor histologic subtype. The value of a multimodality regimen remains poorly defined.
| S-EPMC6547142 | biostudies-literature
Project description:To investigate the ability of CT-based radiomics signature for pre-and postoperatively predicting the early recurrence of intrahepatic mass-forming cholangiocarcinoma (IMCC) and develop radiomics-based prediction models. Institutional review board approved this study. Clinicopathological characteristics, contrast-enhanced CT images, and radiomics features of 125 IMCC patients (35 with early recurrence and 90 with non-early recurrence) were retrospectively reviewed. In the training set of 92 patients, preoperative model, pathological model, and combined model were developed by multivariate logistic regression analysis to predict the early recurrence (≤ 6 months) of IMCC, and the prediction performance of different models were compared using the Delong test. The developed models were validated by assessing their prediction performance in test set of 33 patients. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified solitary, differentiation, energy- arterial phase (AP), inertia-AP, and percentile50th-portal venous phase (PV) to construct combined model for predicting early recurrence of IMCC [the area under the curve (AUC) = 0.917; 95% CI 0.840-0.965]. While the AUC of pathological model and preoperative model were 0.741 (95% CI 0.637-0.828) and 0.844 (95% CI 0.751-0.912), respectively. The AUC of the combined model was significantly higher than that of the preoperative model (p = 0.049) or pathological model (p = 0.002) in training set. In test set, the combined model also showed higher prediction performance. CT-based radiomics signature is a powerful predictor for early recurrence of IMCC. Preoperative model (constructed with homogeneity-AP and standard deviation-AP) and combined model (constructed with solitary, differentiation, energy-AP, inertia-AP, and percentile50th-PV) can improve the accuracy for pre-and postoperatively predicting the early recurrence of IMCC.
| S-EPMC8443588 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This study aimed to develop and validate a prognostic nomogram for recurrence-free survival (RFS) after surgery in the absence of adjuvant therapy to guide the selection for adjuvant imatinib therapy based on Residual Neural Network (ResNet). The ResNet model was developed based on contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CE-CT) in a training cohort consisted of 80 patients pathologically diagnosed gastrointestinal sromal tumors (GISTs) and validated in internal and external validation cohort respectively. Independent clinicopathologic factors were integrated with the ResNet model to construct the individualized nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated in regard to discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness. The ResNet model was significantly associated with RFS. Integrable predictors in the individualized ResNet nomogram included the tumor site, size, and mitotic count. Compared with modified NIH, AFIP, and clinicopathologic nomogram, both ResNet nomogram and ResNet model showed a better discrimination capability with AUCs of 0·947(95%CI, 0·910-0·984) for 3-year-RFS, 0·918(0·852-0·984) for 5-year-RFS, and AUCs of 0·912 (0·851-0·973) for 3-year-RFS, 0·887(0·816-0·960) for 5-year-RFS, respectively. Calibration curve shows the good calibration of the nomogram in terms of the agreement between the estimated and the observed 3- and 5- year outcomes. Decision curve analysis showed that the ResNet nomogram had a higher overall net benefit. In conclusion, we presented a deep learning-based prognostic nomogram to predict RFS after resection of localized primary GISTs with excellent performance and could be a potential tool to select patients for adjuvant imatinib therapy.
| S-EPMC6355433 | biostudies-literature