Dataset Information

Stochastic techno-economic analysis of the production of aviation biofuel from oilseeds.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The economic viability of hydrodeoxygenation process using Camelina, Carinata and Jatropha feedstocks for aviation biofuel production was evaluated for two product profiles: (i) maximum diesel production and (ii) maximum jet fuel production (HRJ).

Results

Deterministic analysis of Camelina and Carinata diesel facilities returned positive NPVs and IRRs of 25 and 18%, respectively. Stochastic analysis suggested that the probabilities of positive NPVs were 75, 59 and 15%, respectively, for Camelina, Carinata and Jatropha diesel plants. Jet fuel facilities presented probabilities of loss of 98, 99 and 100% for Camelina, Carinata and Jatropha scenarios, respectively. Sensitivity analysis determined that financial performance was majorly influenced by feedstock and fuel prices. Categories of subsidies to enhance the attractiveness of the projects were studied.

Conclusions

Camelina, Carinata and Jatropha plants targeting HRJ required incentives of 0.31, 0.39 and 0.61 US$/L of biofuel produced, respectively, to reduce the probabilities of loss to approximately 30%.

SUBMITTER: Diniz APMM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5992646 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Stochastic techno-economic analysis of the production of aviation biofuel from oilseeds.

Diniz Ana Paula M M APMM Sargeant Richard R Millar Graeme J GJ

Biotechnology for biofuels 20180608

<h4>Background</h4>The economic viability of hydrodeoxygenation process using Camelina, Carinata and Jatropha feedstocks for aviation biofuel production was evaluated for two product profiles: (i) maximum diesel production and (ii) maximum jet fuel production (HRJ).<h4>Results</h4>Deterministic analysis of Camelina and Carinata diesel facilities returned positive NPVs and IRRs of 25 and 18%, respectively. Stochastic analysis suggested that the probabilities of positive NPVs were 75, 59 and 15%, ...[more]

PMID: 29930707

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Project description:BackgroundAlcohol-to-jet (ATJ) is one of the technical feasible biofuel technologies. It produces jet fuel from sugary, starchy, and lignocellulosic biomass, such as sugarcane, corn grain, and switchgrass, via fermentation of sugars to ethanol or other alcohols. This study assesses the ATJ biofuel production pathway for these three biomass feedstocks, and advances existing techno-economic analyses of biofuels in three ways. First, we incorporate technical uncertainty for all by-products and co-products though statistical linkages between conversion efficiencies and input and output levels. Second, future price uncertainty is based on case-by-case time-series estimation, and a local sensitivity analysis is conducted with respect to each uncertain variable. Third, breakeven price distributions are developed to communicate the inherent uncertainty in breakeven price. This research also considers uncertainties in utility input requirements, fuel and by-product outputs, as well as price uncertainties for all major inputs, products, and co-products. All analyses are done from the perspective of a private firm.ResultsThe stochastic dominance results of net present values (NPV) and breakeven price distributions show that sugarcane is the lowest cost feedstock over the entire range of uncertainty with the least risks, followed by corn grain and switchgrass, with the mean breakeven jet fuel prices being $0.96/L ($3.65/gal), $1.01/L ($3.84/gal), and $1.38/L ($5.21/gal), respectively. The variation of revenues from by-products in corn grain pathway can significantly impact its profitability. Sensitivity analyses show that technical uncertainty significantly impacts breakeven price and NPV distributions.ConclusionsTechnical uncertainty is critical in determining the economic performance of the ATJ fuel pathway. Technical uncertainty needs to be considered in future economic analyses. The variation of revenues from by-products plays a significant role in profitability. With the distribution of breakeven prices, potential investors can apply whatever risk preferences they like to determine an appropriate bid or breakeven price that matches their risk profile.

Project description:BackgroundRecent advances in metabolic engineering enable the production of chemicals from sugars through microbial bio-conversion. Terpenes have attracted substantial attention due to their relatively high prices and wide applications in different industries. To this end, we synthesize and assess processes for microbial production of terpenes.ResultsTo explain a counterintuitive experimental phenomenon where terpenes such as limonene (normal boiling point 176 °C) are often found to be 100% present in the vapor phase after bio-conversion (operating at only ~ 30 °C), we first analyze the vapor-liquid equilibrium for systems containing terpenes. Then, we propose alternative production configurations, which are further studied, using limonene as an example, in several case studies. Next, we perform economic assessment of the alternative processes and identify the major cost components. Finally, we extend the assessment to account for different process parameters, terpene products, ways to address terpene toxicity (microbial engineering vs. solvent use), and cellulosic biomass as a feedstock. We identify the key cost drivers to be (1) feed glucose concentration (wt%), (2) product yield (% of maximum theoretical yield) and (3) VVM (Volume of air per Volume of broth liquid per Minute, i.e., aeration rate in min-1). The production of limonene, based on current experimental data, is found to be economically infeasible (production cost ~ 465 $/kg vs. market selling price ~ 7 $/kg), but higher glucose concentration and yield can lower the cost. Among 12 terpenes studied, limonene appears to be the most reasonable short-term target because of its large market size (~ 160 million $/year in the US) and the relatively easier to achieve break-even yield (~ 30%, assuming a 14 wt% feed glucose concentration and 0.1 min-1 VVM).ConclusionsThe methods proposed in this work are applicable to a range of terpenes as well as other extracellular insoluble chemicals with density lower than that of water, such as fatty acids. The results provide guidance for future research in metabolic engineering toward terpenes production in terms of setting targets for key design parameters.

Dataset Information

Stochastic techno-economic analysis of the production of aviation biofuel from oilseeds.

Background

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Stochastic techno-economic analysis of the production of aviation biofuel from oilseeds.

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