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Effect of restricting the legal supply of prescription opioids on buying through online illicit marketplaces: interrupted time series analysis.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:To examine the effect on the trade in opioids through online illicit markets ("cryptomarkets") of the US Drug Enforcement Administration's ruling in 2014 to reschedule hydrocodone combination products. DESIGN:Interrupted time series analysis. SETTING:31 of the world's largest cryptomarkets operating from October 2013 to July 2016. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:The proportion of total transactions, advertised and active listings for prescription opioids, prescription sedatives, prescription steroids, prescription stimulants, and illicit opioids, and the composition of the prescription opioid market between the US and elsewhere. RESULTS:The sale of prescription opioids through US cryptomarkets increased after the schedule change, with no statistically significant changes in sales of prescription sedatives, prescription steroids, prescription stimulants, or illicit opioids. In July 2016 sales of opioids through US cryptomarkets represented 13.7% of all drug sales (95% confidence interval 11.5% to 16.0%) compared with a modelled estimate of 6.7% of all sales (3.7% to 9.6%) had the new schedule not been introduced. This corresponds to a 4 percentage point yearly increase in the amount of trade that prescription opioids represent in the US market, set against no corresponding changes for comparable products or for prescription opioids sold outside the US. This change was first observed for sales, and later observed for product availability. There was also a change in the composition of the prescription opioid market: fentanyl was the least purchased product during July to September 2014, then the second most frequently purchased by July 2016. CONCLUSIONS:The scheduling change in hydrocodone combination products coincided with a statistically significant, sustained increase in illicit trading of opioids through online US cryptomarkets. These changes were not observed for other drug groups or in other countries. A subsequent move was observed towards the purchase of more potent forms of prescription opioids, particularly oxycodone and fentanyl.

SUBMITTER: Martin J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5998052 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Effect of restricting the legal supply of prescription opioids on buying through online illicit marketplaces: interrupted time series analysis.

Martin James J Cunliffe Jack J Décary-Hétu David D Aldridge Judith J

BMJ (Clinical research ed.) 20180613

<h4>Objective</h4>To examine the effect on the trade in opioids through online illicit markets ("cryptomarkets") of the US Drug Enforcement Administration's ruling in 2014 to reschedule hydrocodone combination products.<h4>Design</h4>Interrupted time series analysis.<h4>Setting</h4>31 of the world's largest cryptomarkets operating from October 2013 to July 2016.<h4>Main outcome measures</h4>The proportion of total transactions, advertised and active listings for prescription opioids, prescriptio ...[more]

PMID: 29899119

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Project description:ImportanceIt is not yet known how many children and adolescents die each year from opioid poisonings and how mortality rates have changed over time.ObjectiveTo examine national trends in pediatric deaths from prescription and illicit opioids.Design, setting, and participantsCross-sectional in which serial mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were analyzed. The population included 8986 children and adolescents (age, <20 years) who died in all US settings from opioid poisonings between 1999 and 2016. Data were collected and analyzed between June 1 and October 31, 2018.ExposuresAll opioids.Main outcomes and measuresAge-specific mortality rates per 100?000 were estimated with smoothing spline Poisson regression.ResultsOf the 8986 children and adolescents who died between 1999 and 2016 from prescription and illicit opioid poisonings, 6567 (73.1%) were male, 7921 (88.1%) were among adolescents aged 15 to 19 years, and 605 (6.7%) were among children aged 0 to 4 years. The overall pediatric mortality rate increased from 0.22 (95% CI, 0.19-0.25) to 0.81 (95% CI, 0.76-0.88) per 100?000, an increase of 268.2% (P for time effect <.001). The highest annual rates were among adolescents aged 15 to 19 years, but time trends revealed a steady linear increase among children aged 0 to 4 years and those aged 5 to 9 years as well as a steady linear increase until 2008 among the cohorts aged 10 to 14 years and 15 to 19 years, when rates briefly declined before rising again. Among adolescents aged 15 to 19 years, heroin was implicated in 1872 deaths: rates increased from 0.21 (95% CI, 0.17-0.25) to 1.06 (95% CI, 0.97-1.17), an increase of 404.8%, whereas rates for prescription opioids increased by 94.7% from 0.57 (95% CI, 0.49-0.66) to 1.11 (95% CI, 0.99-1.25) (all P for time effect <.001). Between 2014 and 2016, there were 1508 opioid deaths among adolescents aged 15 to 19 years; of these, 468 (31.0%) were attributed to synthetic opioids. Across time, 7263 (80.8%) of all pediatric deaths were unintentional, 5537 (61.6%) occurred outside of a medical facility, and 3419 (38.0%) children died at home or another residential setting. Among children younger than 5 years, 148 (24.5%) deaths were attributed to homicide.Conclusions and relevanceOver 18 years, nearly 9000 children and adolescents died from opioid poisonings, and the mortality rate increased nearly 3-fold. These findings suggest that the opioid epidemic is likely to remain a growing public health problem in the young unless legislators, public health officials, clinicians, and parents take a wider view of the opioid crisis and implement protective measures that are pediatric specific and family centered.

Dataset Information

Effect of restricting the legal supply of prescription opioids on buying through online illicit marketplaces: interrupted time series analysis.

Publications

Effect of restricting the legal supply of prescription opioids on buying through online illicit marketplaces: interrupted time series analysis.

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