Dataset Information

Trajectories of prescription opioids filled over time.

ABSTRACT: We performed a retrospective cohort study that aimed to identify one or more groups that followed a pattern of chronic, high prescription use and quantify individuals' time-dependent probabilities of belonging to a high-utilizer group. We analyzed data from 52,456 adults age 18-45 who enrolled in Medicaid from 2009-2017 in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania who filled at least one prescription for an opioid analgesic. We used group-based trajectory modeling to identify groups of individuals with distinct patterns of prescription opioid use over time. We found the population to be comprised of three distinct trajectory groups. The first group comprised 83% of the population and filled few, if any, opioid prescriptions after their index prescription. The second group (12%) initially filled an average of one prescription per month, but declined over two years to near-zero. The third group (6%) demonstrated sustained high opioid prescriptions utilization. Using individual patients' posterior probability of membership in the high utilization group, which can be updated iteratively over time as new information become available, we defined a sensitive threshold predictive of sustained future opioid utilization. We conclude that individuals at risk of sustained opioid utilization can be identified early in their clinical course from limited observational data.

SUBMITTER: Elmer J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6777776 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Trajectories of prescription opioids filled over time.

Elmer Jonathan J Fogliato Riccardo R Setia Nikita N Mui Wilson W Lynch Michael M Hulsey Eric E Nagin Daniel D

PloS one 20191004 10

We performed a retrospective cohort study that aimed to identify one or more groups that followed a pattern of chronic, high prescription use and quantify individuals' time-dependent probabilities of belonging to a high-utilizer group. We analyzed data from 52,456 adults age 18-45 who enrolled in Medicaid from 2009-2017 in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania who filled at least one prescription for an opioid analgesic. We used group-based trajectory modeling to identify groups of individuals with dis ...[more]

PMID: 31584961

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Project description:OBJECTIVE:To examine the effect on the trade in opioids through online illicit markets ("cryptomarkets") of the US Drug Enforcement Administration's ruling in 2014 to reschedule hydrocodone combination products. DESIGN:Interrupted time series analysis. SETTING:31 of the world's largest cryptomarkets operating from October 2013 to July 2016. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:The proportion of total transactions, advertised and active listings for prescription opioids, prescription sedatives, prescription steroids, prescription stimulants, and illicit opioids, and the composition of the prescription opioid market between the US and elsewhere. RESULTS:The sale of prescription opioids through US cryptomarkets increased after the schedule change, with no statistically significant changes in sales of prescription sedatives, prescription steroids, prescription stimulants, or illicit opioids. In July 2016 sales of opioids through US cryptomarkets represented 13.7% of all drug sales (95% confidence interval 11.5% to 16.0%) compared with a modelled estimate of 6.7% of all sales (3.7% to 9.6%) had the new schedule not been introduced. This corresponds to a 4 percentage point yearly increase in the amount of trade that prescription opioids represent in the US market, set against no corresponding changes for comparable products or for prescription opioids sold outside the US. This change was first observed for sales, and later observed for product availability. There was also a change in the composition of the prescription opioid market: fentanyl was the least purchased product during July to September 2014, then the second most frequently purchased by July 2016. CONCLUSIONS:The scheduling change in hydrocodone combination products coincided with a statistically significant, sustained increase in illicit trading of opioids through online US cryptomarkets. These changes were not observed for other drug groups or in other countries. A subsequent move was observed towards the purchase of more potent forms of prescription opioids, particularly oxycodone and fentanyl.

Project description:Study objectiveOpioid abuse and overdose constitute an ongoing health emergency. Many presume opioids have little potential for iatrogenic addiction when used as directed, particularly in short courses, as is typical of the emergency department (ED) setting. We preliminarily explore the possibility that initial exposure to opioids by EDs could be related to subsequent opioid misuse.MethodsThis cross-sectional study surveyed a convenience sample of patients reporting heroin or nonmedical opioid use at an urban, academic ED. We estimated the proportion whose initial exposure to opioids was a legitimate medical prescription and the proportion of those prescriptions that came from an ED. Secondary measurements included the proportion of patients receiving nonopioid substances before initial opioid exposure, the source of opioids between initial exposure and onset of regular nonmedical use, and time from initial prescription to opioid use disorder.ResultsOf 59 subjects, 35 (59%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 47% to 71%) reported they were first exposed to opioids by a legitimate medical prescription, and for 10 of 35 (29%; 95% CI 16% to 45%), the prescription came from an ED. Most medically exposed subjects (28/35; 80%; 95% CI 65% to 91%) reported nonopioid substance use or treatment for nonopioid substance use disorders preceding the initial opioid exposure. Emergency providers were a source of opioids between exposure and onset of regular nonmedical use in 11 of 35 cases (31%; 95% CI 18% to 48%). Thirty-one of the 35 medically exposed subjects reported the time of onset of nonmedical use; median time from exposure to onset of nonmedical use was 6 months for use to get high (N=25; interquartile range [IQR] 2 to 36), 12 months for regular use to get high (N=24; IQR 2 to 36), 18 months for use to avoid withdrawal (N=26; IQR 2 to 38), and 24 months for regular use to avoid withdrawal (N=27; IQR 2 to 48). Eleven subjects (36%; 95% CI 21% to 53%) began nonmedical use within 2 months, and 9 of 11 (82%; 95% CI 53% to 96%) reported nonopioid substance use or treatment for alcohol abuse before initial opioid exposure.ConclusionAlthough short-term opioid administration by emergency providers is unlikely to cause addiction by itself, ED opioid prescriptions may contribute to the development of addiction in some patients. There is an urgent need for further research to estimate long-term risks of short-course opioid therapy so that the risk of iatrogenic addiction can be appropriately balanced with the benefit of analgesia.

Dataset Information

Trajectories of prescription opioids filled over time.

Publications

Trajectories of prescription opioids filled over time.

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