Dataset Information

A modelling framework based on MDP to coordinate farmers' disease control decisions at a regional scale.

ABSTRACT: The effectiveness of infectious disease control depends on the ability of health managers to act in a coordinated way. However, with regards to non-notifiable animal diseases, farmers individually decide whether or not to implement control measures, leading to positive and negative externalities for connected farms and possibly impairing disease control at a regional scale. Our objective was to facilitate the identification of optimal incentive schemes at a collective level, adaptive to the epidemiological situation, and minimizing the economic costs due to a disease and its control. We proposed a modelling framework based on Markov Decision Processes (MDP) to identify effective strategies to control PorcineReproductive andRespiratorySyndrome (PRRS), a worldwide endemicinfectiousdisease thatsignificantly impactspig farmproductivity. Using a stochastic discrete-time compartmental model representing PRRS virus spread and control within a group of pig herds, we defined the associated MDP. Using a decision-tree framework, we translated the optimal policy into a limited number of rules providing actions to be performed per 6-month time-step according to the observed system state. We evaluated the effect of varying costs and transition probabilities on optimal policy and epidemiological results. We finally identifiedan adaptive policy that gave the best net financial benefit. The proposed framework is a tool for decision support as it allows decision-makers to identify the optimal policy and to assess its robustness to variations in the values of parameters representing an impact of incentives on farmers' decisions.

SUBMITTER: Viet AF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5999088 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A modelling framework based on MDP to coordinate farmers' disease control decisions at a regional scale.

Viet Anne-France AF Krebs Stéphane S Rat-Aspert Olivier O Jeanpierre Laurent L Belloc Catherine C Ezanno Pauline P

PloS one 20180613 6

The effectiveness of infectious disease control depends on the ability of health managers to act in a coordinated way. However, with regards to non-notifiable animal diseases, farmers individually decide whether or not to implement control measures, leading to positive and negative externalities for connected farms and possibly impairing disease control at a regional scale. Our objective was to facilitate the identification of optimal incentive schemes at a collective level, adaptive to the epid ...[more]

PMID: 29897988

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Project description:Although farm biosecurity reduces the risk of disease spread among livestock, this knowledge is not always applied. Farmers' application of disease preventive measures is expected to depend on many things, e.g. whether they consider disease prevention possible and demographic factors. In this study, Swedish livestock farmers' perspectives on occurrence, control and communication related to infectious livestock diseases were investigated. A questionnaire study was performed in 2012-2013, and included responses from almost 2000 livestock farmers with cattle, pigs, sheep or goats. Associations between responses and factors related to herd type and demography were investigated using multivariable regression models. Results showed a strong general agreement among farmers that disease prevention is important. However, results also showed differing opinions among farmers. For example, female farmers indicated higher levels of perceived knowledge of disease spread and a stronger belief that they can prevent disease introduction. Results indicate that farmers who believe they have the necessary knowledge, have stronger sense of control and also demand that others take responsibility to prevent spread. Furthermore, dairy farmers were more likely to respond that repeated exposure to infections could be beneficial for animal health. The number of perceived disease outbreaks was also higher among these farmers. Regarding government issued compensation to farmers in case of outbreaks, a wide range of opinions were recorded. Responses confirm that the farm veterinarian is an important source of disease information and several different communication channels are needed to reach farmers. In conclusion, our results show that factors such as gender, education level and age influence how prevention and occurrence of disease outbreaks are perceived and best communicated. We suggest that efforts are made to increase knowledge about disease prevention among farmers and veterinary practitioners and that farm veterinarians should be encouraged to motivate farmers to strengthen farm biosecurity.

Project description:INTRODUCTION:The narrative of prosperous economic livelihood of tobacco farmers in Kenya as alleged by the tobacco industry deserves challenge as evidence increasingly suggests that smallholder tobacco farmers are making little or no profits. Article 17 of the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control encourages viable alternative livelihoods for tobacco farmers. There is little evidence, however, on how tobacco farmers make livelihood choice decisions. METHODS:A total of 527 purposefully selected smallholder tobacco farmers in Kenya from three main tobacco-growing regions participated in a 2017 economic livelihood survey. Geo-economic data were matched to surveyed farmers' Global Positioning System coordinates to estimate each farmer's access to nearby economic centers. Ownership of cell phones or radios was also used to estimate farmers' virtual access to nearby economic activities to understand better the role of information. Multivariate logistic regressions were used to control socioeconomic status and self-reported activity in nearby economic centers. RESULTS:Tobacco farmers rarely live within 10 km of an economic center. Results suggest that the further away farmers live from economic centers, the less likely they are to grow tobacco, but more likely to grow tobacco under contract. Also, farmers owning a cell phone or radio are not only less likely to grow tobacco, but also to not engage in farming under contract if they do grow tobacco. CONCLUSIONS:Physical and virtual access to nearby economic activities is significantly associated with tobacco farmers' livelihood choice decision and should be taken into consideration by decision makers while developing interventions for FCTC Article 17. IMPLICATIONS:Smallholder tobacco farmers in lower-income countries are making little or no profits, but few studies have been conducted to illuminate what perpetuates tobacco production, with such studies urgently needed to support governments to develop viable alternative livelihoods for tobacco farmers. This study suggests that geographic and technological factors that shape farmers' economic decisions can help policy makers tailor alternative livelihood policies to different regional contexts and should be a focus of future research in this area.

Dataset Information

A modelling framework based on MDP to coordinate farmers' disease control decisions at a regional scale.

Publications

A modelling framework based on MDP to coordinate farmers' disease control decisions at a regional scale.

Similar Datasets

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