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Effects of regional differences and demography in modelling foot-and-mouth disease in cattle at the national scale.

ABSTRACT: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a fast-spreading viral infection that can produce large and costly outbreaks in livestock populations. Transmission occurs at multiple spatial scales, as can the actions used to control outbreaks. The US cattle industry is spatially expansive, with heterogeneous distributions of animals and infrastructure. We have developed a model that incorporates the effects of scale for both disease transmission and control actions, applied here in simulating FMD outbreaks in US cattle. We simulated infection initiating in each of the 3049 counties in the contiguous US, 100 times per county. When initial infection was located in specific regions, large outbreaks were more likely to occur, driven by infrastructure and other demographic attributes such as premises clustering and number of cattle on premises. Sensitivity analyses suggest these attributes had more impact on outbreak metrics than the ranges of estimated disease parameter values. Additionally, although shipping accounted for a small percentage of overall transmission, areas receiving the most animal shipments tended to have other attributes that increase the probability of large outbreaks. The importance of including spatial and demographic heterogeneity in modelling outbreak trajectories and control actions is illustrated by specific regions consistently producing larger outbreaks than others.

SUBMITTER: Tsao K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6936011 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Effects of regional differences and demography in modelling foot-and-mouth disease in cattle at the national scale.

Tsao Kimberly K Sellman Stefan S Beck-Johnson Lindsay M LM Murrieta Deedra J DJ Hallman Clayton C Lindström Tom T Miller Ryan S RS Portacci Katie K Tildesley Michael J MJ Webb Colleen T CT

Interface focus 20191213 1

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a fast-spreading viral infection that can produce large and costly outbreaks in livestock populations. Transmission occurs at multiple spatial scales, as can the actions used to control outbreaks. The US cattle industry is spatially expansive, with heterogeneous distributions of animals and infrastructure. We have developed a model that incorporates the effects of scale for both disease transmission and control actions, applied here in simulating FMD outbreaks in ...[more]

PMID: 31897292

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Project description:Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) field studies have suggested the occurrence of simultaneous infection of individual hosts by multiple virus strains; however, the pathogenesis of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) coinfections is largely unknown. In the current study, cattle were experimentally exposed to two FMDV strains of different serotypes (O and A). One cohort was simultaneously infected with both viruses, while additional cohorts were initially infected with FMDV A and subsequently superinfected with FMDV O after 21 or 35 days. Coinfections were confirmed during acute infection, with both viruses concurrently detected in blood, lesions, and secretions. Staggered exposures resulted in overlapping infections as convalescent animals with persistent subclinical FMDV infection were superinfected with a heterologous virus. Staggering virus exposure by 21 days conferred clinical protection in six of eight cattle, which were subclinically infected following the heterologous virus exposure. This effect was transient, as all animals superinfected at 35 days post-initial infection developed fulminant FMD. The majority of cattle maintained persistent infection with one of the two viruses while clearing the other. Analysis of viral genomes confirmed interserotypic recombination events within 10 days in the upper respiratory tract of five superinfected animals from which the dominant genomes contained the capsid coding regions of the O virus and nonstructural coding regions of the A virus. In contrast, there were no dominant recombinant genomes detected in samples from simultaneously coinfected cattle. These findings inculpate persistently infected carriers as potential FMDV mixing vessels in which novel strains may rapidly emerge through superinfection and recombination. IMPORTANCE Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a viral infection of livestock of critical socioeconomic importance. Field studies from areas of endemic FMD suggest that animals can be simultaneously infected by more than one distinct variant of FMD virus (FMDV), potentially resulting in emergence of novel viral strains through recombination. However, there has been limited investigation of the mechanisms of in vivo FMDV coinfections under controlled experimental conditions. Our findings confirmed that cattle could be simultaneously infected by two distinct serotypes of FMDV, with different outcomes associated with the timing of exposure to the two different viruses. Additionally, dominant interserotypic recombinant FMDVs were discovered in multiple samples from the upper respiratory tracts of five superinfected animals, emphasizing the potential importance of persistently infected FMDV carriers as sources of novel FMDV strains.

Project description:BackgroundFoot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in Uganda in spite of the control measures used. Various aspects of the maintenance and circulation of FMD viruses (FMDV) in Uganda are not well understood; these include the role of the African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) as a reservoir for FMDV. To better understand the epidemiology of FMD at the livestock-wildlife-interface, samples were collected from young, unvaccinated cattle from 24 pastoral herds that closely interact with wildlife around Queen Elizabeth National Park in Uganda, and analysed for evidence of FMDV infection.ResultsIn total, 37 (15%) of 247 serum samples had detectable antibodies against FMDV non-structural proteins (NSPs) using a pan-serotypic assay. Within these 37 sera, antibody titres ≥ 80 against the structural proteins of serotypes O, SAT 1, SAT 2 and SAT 3 were detected by ELISA in 5, 7, 4 and 3 samples, respectively, while neutralizing antibodies were only detected against serotype O in 3 samples. Two FMDV isolates, with identical VP1 coding sequences, were obtained from probang samples from clinically healthy calves from the same herd and are serotype SAT 1 (topotype IV (EA-I)). Based on the VP1 coding sequences, these viruses are distinct from previous cattle and buffalo SAT 1 FMDV isolates obtained from the same area (19-30% nucleotide difference) and from the vaccine strain (TAN/155/71) used within Uganda (26% nucleotide difference). Eight herds had only one or a few animals with antibodies against FMDV NSPs while six herds had more substantial evidence of prior infection with FMDV. There was no evidence for exposure to FMDV in the other ten herds.ConclusionsThe two identical SAT 1 FMDV VP1 sequences are distinct from former buffalo and cattle isolates from the same area, thus, transmission between buffalo and cattle was not demonstrated. These new SAT 1 FMDV isolates differed significantly from the vaccine strain used to control Ugandan FMD outbreaks, indicating a need for vaccine matching studies. Only six herds had clear serological evidence for exposure to O and SAT 1 FMDV. Scattered presence of antibodies against FMDV in other herds may be due to the occasional introduction of animals to the area or maternal antibodies from past infection and/or vaccination. The evidence for asymptomatic FMDV infection has implications for disease control strategies in the area since this obstructs early disease detection that is based on clinical signs in FMDV infected animals.

Project description:Nigeria is a large densely populated country in West Africa. Most of its livestock is raised in a pastoralist production system with typical long distance migration in search of water and feed. As the demand for animal products largely exceeds the domestic production, large numbers of livestock are imported from neighboring countries without sanitary restrictions. In Nigeria, foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) serotypes O, A, and Southern African Territories (SAT)2 are endemic for a long time. Clinical outbreaks of FMD due to serotype SAT1 are described again since 2015, after an absence of more than 30 years. Historically, outbreaks of FMD due to serotypes O, A, SAT1, and SAT2 were each time associated with trade of cattle entering Nigeria from neighboring countries. In the present study, tissue samples from 27 outbreaks of FMD were collected in Nigerian cattle from 2012 until 2017 in six different States and in the Federal Capital Territory. FMDV was isolated and serotyped and further characterized by VP1 sequencing and phylogenetic analysis to gain more knowledge on FMDV circulation in Nigeria. Half of the outbreaks were characterized as FMDV topotype O/EA-3, while outbreaks with other serotypes and topotypes were-in descending order-less prevalent: A/Africa/G-IV, SAT1/X, SAT2/VII, and O/WA. The high dynamics and omnipresence of FMD in Nigeria were illustrated in Plateau State where FMDV serotypes O, SAT1, and SAT2 were isolated during the course of the study, while at some point in the study, outbreaks due to FMDV serotype A were observed in three remote States. The genetic and phylogenetic analysis suggests a mixed origin of FMD outbreaks. Some outbreaks seem to be caused by sustained local transmission of FMDV strains present in Nigeria since a number of years, while other outbreaks seem to be related to recent incursions with new FMDV strains. The role of African buffaloes in the etiology of FMD in Nigeria is unclear, and sampling of wildlife is needed. The results of the present study suggest that systematic sample collection is essential to understand the complex concomitance of FMDV strains in Nigeria and essential to support the implementation of a vaccination-based control plan.

Project description:BackgroundThe Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME) has been used around the world to assess the health impact and cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in girls. We updated PRIME with new data and methods for demography, disability weights, and cervical cancer burden, and generated revised estimates of the health impact of HPV vaccination at the global, regional, and national levels for 177 countries.MethodsPRIME was updated with population demography of the UN World Population Prospects (UNWPP) 2019 revision, disability weights of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study, and cervical cancer burden from the Global Cancer Incidence, Mortality and Prevalence (GLOBOCAN) 2018 database. We estimated the lifetime health benefits for bivalent or quadrivalent and nonavalent vaccination of 9-year-old and 12-year-old girls at 90% coverage during 2020-29 in 177 countries. Health impact was presented in terms of cervical cancer cases, deaths, or disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted per 1000 vaccinated girls in comparison with the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination, and the number of girls needed to be vaccinated to prevent a single case, death, or DALY.FindingsIn estimating the health impact of HPV vaccination of 9-year-old girls, the combined updates to demography, disability weights, cervical cancer burden estimates resulted in a 26% increase in the estimated number of cases averted, a 51% increase in deaths averted, and a 72% increase in DALYs averted per 1000 vaccinated girls for both the bivalent or quadrivalent and nonavalent vaccines, compared with previous estimates. With the updated model, the bivalent or quadrivalent HPV vaccine was estimated to avert 15 cases, 12 deaths, and 243 DALYs per 1000 vaccinated girls, and the nonavalent HPV vaccine was estimated to avert 19 cases, 14 deaths, and 306 DALYs per 1000 vaccinated girls. The health benefits of vaccination of 12-year-old girls were estimated to be similar but slightly decreased in comparison with vaccination of 9-year-old girls.InterpretationHPV vaccination provides greater health benefits and is more cost-effective than was previously estimated. The demography update, which incorporates population aging, has the largest effect on the health impact estimates. The WHO African region is expected to gain the greatest health benefits and should be prioritised for HPV vaccination.FundingGavi, the Vaccine Alliance; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Dataset Information

Effects of regional differences and demography in modelling foot-and-mouth disease in cattle at the national scale.

Publications

Effects of regional differences and demography in modelling foot-and-mouth disease in cattle at the national scale.

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