Dataset Information

The Modelling of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Contaminated Environments in Bangkok, Thailand.

ABSTRACT: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has spread widely in a continuing endemic in Thailand. There are no specific vaccines or antiviral treatments available that specifically target HFMD. Indirect transmission via free-living viruses from the environment may influence HFMD infections because the virus can survive for long periods in the environment. In this study, a new mathematical model is proposed to investigate the effect of indirect transmission from contaminated environments and the impact of asymptomatic individuals. By fitting our model to reported data on hospitalized individuals of HFMD endemic in Bangkok, Thailand, 2016, the basic reproduction number was estimated as 1.441, which suggests that the disease will remain under current conditions. Numerical simulations show that the direct transmission from asymptomatic individuals and indirect transmission via free-living viruses are important factors which contribute to new HFMD infections. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the basic reproduction number is sensitive to the transmission rate of asymptomatic and symptomatic subgroups and indirect transmission. Our findings suggest that cleaning the environment frequently and healthcare precautions which include the reduction of direct transmission rates should be promoted as effective control strategies for preventing the HFMD spread.

SUBMITTER: Chadsuthi S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6008700 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The Modelling of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Contaminated Environments in Bangkok, Thailand.

Chadsuthi Sudarat S Wichapeng Surapa S

Computational and mathematical methods in medicine 20180603

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has spread widely in a continuing endemic in Thailand. There are no specific vaccines or antiviral treatments available that specifically target HFMD. Indirect transmission via free-living viruses from the environment may influence HFMD infections because the virus can survive for long periods in the environment. In this study, a new mathematical model is proposed to investigate the effect of indirect transmission from contaminated environments and the impact ...[more]

PMID: 29971133

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Project description:BackgroundHand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a major communicable disease in children ?6?years old, particularly in several countries in the Asia-Pacific Region, including Thailand. HFMD impacts public health and the economy, especially in northern Thailand.MethodsA prospective cohort study was conducted to estimate the incidence rate and to identify the serotype and clinical features of HFMD among children in northern Thailand. A validated questionnaire and throat swab were used for data collection. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used to detect human enterovirus and identify its serotypes. Participants were recruited from 14 hospitals in two provinces in northern Thailand, specifically, Chiang Rai and Pha Yao Province, between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2016. Chi-square or Fisher's exact test was used to detect the associations of signs and symptoms with HFMD serotype. Logistic regression was used to detect the associations of variables with a positive enterovirus at alpha?=?0.05.ResultIn total, 612 children aged ?6?years from Chiang Rai and Pha Yao Province who were diagnosed with HFMD by a throat swab were recruited for the analysis. Approximately half of the cohort was male (57.2%), 57.5% was aged <?2?years, and 57.5% lived in rural areas. The incidence rate was 279.72/100,000 person-years in Chiang Rai Province and 321.24 per 100,000 person-years in Pha Yao Province. Additionally, 42.5% of children were positive for human enterovirus; among these children, 56.1% were positive for enterovirus-A (EV-A), 17.7% were positive for coxsackievirus (CV), and 26.2% were positive for other human RNA enteroviruses. During the study period, 21 distinct outbreaks of HFMD were recognized. Four to five patients (total 92 patients) were selected from each outbreak for identifying its serotype; enterovirus-A71 (EV-A71) was detected in 34.8% of HFMD cases, coxsackievirus-A16 (CV-A16) in 26.1%, coxsackivirus-A6 (CV-A6) in 15.2%, coxsackievirus-A10 (CV-A10) in 10.9%, coxsackievirus-A4 (CV-A4) in 2.2%, coxsackievirus-B2 (CV-B2) in 2.2%, human rhinovirus in 2.2%, and unknown serotype in 6.4%. Multivariable analysis demonstrated that a history of breastfeeding for ?6?months was associated with a higher chance of enterovirus infection than a history of breastfeeding >?6?months, and children who had mother who worked as farmers, daily wage employees, and unprofessional skilled jobs had a greater chance of enterovirus infection than those who had unemployed mothers. Coxsackievirus-infected children had a higher rate of rashes on the buttocks, knee, and elbow and fever but a lower rate of lethargy and malaise than EV-A71-infected children.ConclusionsEV-A71 is a major cause of HFMD in children <?6?years old in northern Thailand, but rash, fever, and mouth ulcers are mostly found in participants with coxsackievirus infection. Breastfeeding should be promoted during early childhood for at least 6?months to prevent HFMD particularly those mother who are working in unprofessional skill jobs.

Dataset Information

The Modelling of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Contaminated Environments in Bangkok, Thailand.

Publications

The Modelling of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Contaminated Environments in Bangkok, Thailand.

Similar Datasets

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