Estimating lifetime and 10-year risk of lung cancer.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Bruder C
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6010924 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:BackgroundCardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer share many common risk factors; patients with CVD also may be at risk of developing cancer.ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to derive and externally validate prediction models for the estimation of lifetime and 10-year risk for total, colorectal, and lung cancer in patients with established CVD.MethodsData from patients with established CVD from the UCC-SMART cohort (N = 7,280) were used for model development, and from the CANTOS trial (N = 9,322) for model validation. Predictors were selected based on previously published cancer risk scores, clinical availability, and presence in the derivation dataset. Fine and Gray competing risk-adjusted lifetime models were developed for the outcomes total, colorectal, and lung cancer.ResultsSelected predictors were age, sex, smoking, weight, height, alcohol use, antiplatelet use, diabetes, and C-reactive protein. External calibration for the 4-year risk of lung, colorectal, and total cancer was reasonable in our models, as was discrimination with C-statistics of 0.74, 0.64, and 0.63, respectively. Median predicted lifetime and 10-year risks in CANTOS were 26% (range 1% to 52%) and 13% (range 1% to 31%) for total cancer; 4% (range 0% to 13%) and 2% (range 0% to 6%) for colorectal cancer; and 5% (range 0% to 37%) and 2% (range 0% to 24%) for lung cancer.ConclusionsLifetime and 10-year risk of total, colorectal, and lung cancer can be estimated reasonably well in patients with established CVD with readily available clinical predictors. With additional study, these tools could be used in clinical practice to further aid in the emphasis of healthy lifestyle changes and to guide thresholds for targeted diagnostics and screening.
| S-EPMC8352343 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundLong-term changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk after bariatric surgery are not well characterized.ObjectiveTo report sex-specific changes in CVD risk after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery (RYGB).SettingObservational cohort study at ten hospitals throughout the United States.MethodsBetween 2006 and 2009, 1770 adults enrolled in a prospective cohort study underwent RYGB at 1 of 10 U.S. hospitals. Research assessments were conducted presurgery and annually postsurgery over 7 years. Sex specific-predicted 10-year and lifetime CVD risk were calculated using the Framingham10-year and lifetime risk scores, Framingham-body mass index, and atherosclerotic CVD scoring algorithms among participants with no history of CVD. Of 1566 eligible participants, 1234 (75.9%) with CVD risk determination pre- and postsurgery were included (1013 females, 221 males).ResultsBased on the Framingham10-year and lifetime risk scores, the percentage of females with predicted high (>20%) 10-year CVD risk declined from presurgery (6.5% [95% confidence interval: 6.7-7.5]) to 1 year postsurgery (1.0% [95% confidence interval: .8-1.2]; P < .001), then increased 1 to 7 years postsurgery (to 2.8% [95% confidence interval: 1.6-3.3]; P = .003), but was lower 7 years postsurgery versus presurgery (P < .001). Time trends for percentage of high-risk participants and mean CVD risk scores were similar for both sexes and other evaluated CVD risk scores. For example, among males mean lifetime atherosclerotic CVD score declined from presurgery to 1 year postsurgery, then increased 1 to 7 years postsurgery. However, there was a net decline from presurgery (P < .001).ConclusionAmong both females and males, predicted 10-year and lifetime CVD risk was substantially lower 7 years post RYGB than presurgery, suggesting RYGB surgery can lead to sustained improvements in short- and long-term CVD risk.
| S-EPMC7423710 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeDuring gas station operation, unburned fuel can be released to the environment through distribution, delivery, and storage. Due to the toxicity of fuel compounds, setback distances have been implemented to protect the general population. However, these distances treat gasoline sales volume as a categorical variable and only account for the presence of a single gas station and not clusters, which frequently occur. This paper introduces a framework for recommending setback distances for gas station clusters based on estimated lifetime cancer risk from benzene exposure.MethodsUsing the air quality dispersion model AERMOD, we simulated levels of benzene released to the atmosphere from single and clusters of generic gas stations and the associated lifetime cancer risk under meteorological conditions representative of Albany, New York.ResultsCancer risk as a function of distance from gas station(s) and as a continuous function of total sales volume can be estimated from an equation we developed. We found that clusters of gas stations have increased cancer risk compared to a single station because of cumulative emissions from the individual gas stations. For instance, the cancer risk at 40 m for four gas stations each dispensing 1 million gal/year is 9.84 × 10-6 compared to 2.45 × 10-6 for one gas station.ConclusionThe framework we developed for estimating cancer risk from gas station(s) could be adopted by regulatory agencies to make setback distances a function of sales volume and the number of gas stations in a cluster, rather than on a sales volume category.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40201-020-00601-w.
| S-EPMC8172828 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background The 10-year and lifetime cardiovascular disease risk in the population with stage 1 hypertension and the effects of recovery from and progression of stage 1 hypertension remain undetermined. Methods and Results This prospective cohort study included 96 268 individuals with blood pressure measurements obtained in 2006 and again in 2010. The 10-year cardiovascular disease risk was estimated using the multivariable Cox proportional hazards model, and the lifetime risk was calculated using a modified survival analysis that accounted for the competing risk of death. Stage 1 hypertension was detected in 30.83% of the cohort. The 10-year cardiovascular disease risk was 2.80%, and the lifetime risk was 16.61%. Compared with the normal blood pressure group, the stage 1 hypertension group had a 35% higher 10-year risk (hazard ratio [HR], 1.35 [95% CI, 1.19-1.52]) and a 36% higher lifetime risk (HR, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.25-1.49]). By 2010, 12.57% of the participants with stage 1 hypertension had progressed to stage 2, with a significant 156% increase in 10-year risk (HR, 2.56 [95% CI, 2.11-3.11]) and an increased lifetime risk of 129% (HR, 2.29 [95% CI, 1.89-2.77]). There was no appreciable change in risk in those with stage 1 hypertension whose blood pressure returned to the normal-elevated range. Conclusions Stage 1 hypertension was associated with a significant increase in 10-year and lifetime cardiovascular disease risk. Progression to stage 2 hypertension was associated with a marked increase in lifetime risk. The current guidelines require revision to promote early detection and appropriate management of blood pressure.
| S-EPMC10122910 | biostudies-literature
Project description:False positive results in screening tests have potentially severe psychological, medical, and financial consequences for the recipient. However, there have been few efforts to quantify how the risk of a false positive accumulates over time. We seek to fill this gap by estimating the probability that an individual who adheres to the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) screening guidelines will receive at least one false positive in a lifetime. To do so, we assembled a data set of 116 studies cited by the USPSTF that report the number of true positives, false negatives, true negatives, and false positives for the primary screening procedure for one of five cancers or six sexually transmitted diseases. We use these data to estimate the probability that an individual in one of 14 demographic subpopulations will receive at least one false positive for one of these eleven diseases in a lifetime. We specify a suitable statistical model to account for the hierarchical structure of the data, and we use the parametric bootstrap to quantify the uncertainty surrounding our estimates. The estimated probability of receiving at least one false positive in a lifetime is 85.5% (±0.9%) and 38.9% (±3.6%) for baseline groups of women and men, respectively. It is higher for subpopulations recommended to screen more frequently than the baseline, including more vulnerable groups such as pregnant women and men who have sex with men. Since screening technology is imperfect, false positives remain inevitable. The high lifetime risk of a false positive reveals the importance of educating patients about this phenomenon.
| S-EPMC9931091 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeTo derive and validate a concise prediction model estimating the 10-year risk for type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in China.MethodsA total of 11494 subjects from the China Health and Nutrition Survey recorded from 2004 to 2015 were analyzed and only 6023 participants were enrolled in this study. Four logistic models were analyzed using the derivation cohort. Methods of calibration and discrimination were used for the validation cohort.ResultsIn the derivation cohort, 257 patients were identified from a total of 4498 cases. In the validation cohort, 92 patients were identified from a total of 1525 cases. Four models performed nicely for both calibration and discrimination. The AUC in the derivation cohort for models A, B, C and D were 0.788 (0.761-0.816), 0.807 (0.780-0.834), 0.905 (0.879-0.932) and 0.882 (0.853-0.912), respectively. The Youden index for models A, B, C and D were 1.46, 1.48, 1.67 and 1.65, respectively. Model C showed the highest sensitivity and model D showed the highest specificity.ConclusionModels A and B were non-invasive and can be used to identify high-risk patients for broad screening. Models C and D may be used to provide more accurate assessments of diabetes risk. Furthermore, model C showed the best performance for predicting T2DM risk and identifying individuals who are in need of interventions, current approach improvement and additional follow-up.
| S-EPMC7470416 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeThis study aimed to describe the survival outcomes and factors associated with prognosis in patients undergoing pulmonary metastasectomy with colorectal cancer (CRC) in a cancer center in South America.Material and methodsA retrospective analysis of patients that underwent lung metastasectomy due to CRC at National Cancer Institute (INC), Colombia between 2007 and 2017 was performed and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis along with log-rank test and Cox regression multivariate analysis were completed.ResultsSeventy-five patients with colorectal adenocarcinoma were included in the study. Of them, 57.3% were women with a median age of 62 years [interquartile ranges (IQR): 18.5]. For 45.3% the adenocarcinoma was located in the rectum and 29.3% had stage IV at diagnosis. 56% had a history of controlled extrapulmonary metastasis and 20% of the cases had a history of the metastasis of the liver. The median follow-up was 36.8 months (IQR: 27.4). Three-year and five-year overall survival (OS) was 57.5% [95% confidence interval (CI), 47.0-70.4] and 33.2% (95% CI, 23.4-47.2), respectively. Patients with bilateral, more than one pulmonary metastasis, abnormal postmetastasectomy carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), history of liver metastasis, and disease-free interval (DFI) ≤12 months had worse OS. Three-year and five-year disease-free survival (DFS) was 30.1% (95% CI, 20.8-43.6) and 21.6% (95% CI, 13.0-35.9), respectively. Bilateral, more than one pulmonary metastasis, and patients with stage IV at diagnosis had the worst DFS. Multivariate analysis in the Cox regression model showed that abnormal postmetastasectomy CEA [Hazard Ratio (HR):1.97, 95% CI, 1.01-3.86, p = 0.045] and DFI ≤ 12 months (HR: 3.08, 95% CI, 1.26-7.53, p = 0.014) were independent factors for worst OS.ConclusionsThe OS found falls within the wide range described in the world literature but interestingly it falls at the bottom end of this range. The factors associated with worst survival were identified as bilateral, more than one pulmonary metastasis, abnormal postmetastasectomy CEA, history of liver metastasis, and DFI ≤12 months.Contribution to the fieldPulmonary metastasectomy is the standard of care in patients with metastatic CRC. However, the literature supporting this conduct is based on retrospective studies and the only randomized controlled trial conducted to date was stopped due to poor recruitment. Limited information is available in South America about survival and factors associated with prognosis in patients with metastatic CRC. While this study is another series that adds to the many studies across the world that describe the use of pulmonary metastasectomy in CRC, it presents critical data as it is one of the few studies carried out in South America. As described in a wide range of world literature, OS found falls in patients that underwent lung metastasectomy due to CRC however; interestingly, in the South American population analyzed here it falls at the bottom end of this range. This may be explained by a large number of patients included with a history of extrapulmonary metastasis as well as may reflect inadequate patient access to reference cancer centers in Colombia. Factors associated with worst survival in our population were bilateral, more than one pulmonary metastasis, abnormal postmetastasectomy CEA, history of liver metastasis, and interval from diagnosis to development of pulmonary metastasis ≤12 months.
| S-EPMC9406509 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC10407683 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesOccupational lung carcinogens have been primarily studied in men. The aim of this study was to investigate occupational lung cancer risk in a cohort of Chinese non-smoking women.MethodsIn 1996-2000, 71 067 non-smoking women who had held a job outside the home were interviewed for the prospective Shanghai Women's Health Study in China. Exposure to lung carcinogens was assessed by matching occupation and industry titles from lifetime occupational histories with lists of jobs identified by the International Agency for Research on Cancer to have potential exposure to: (1) known (A-list); or (2) suspected (B-list) carcinogens. In addition, similar occupational titles were grouped independent of the a priori defined lists. Relative risks (RRs) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression.ResultsDuring follow-up through 2005, 219 incident lung cancer cases were diagnosed. Jobs on the A-list and B-list were held by 0.8-6.7% and 2.7-9.4% of the cohort, respectively. Overall, ever holding any job on the A-list or B-list was not associated with lung cancer incidence. Indications of excess risk were found for two subgroups: painters (A-list) and rubber workers (B-list) (RR = 2.0 and 1.7, respectively, p<or=0.1). An exploratory analysis of 35 occupational categories independent of the lists showed significantly increased risks for leather products/shoes, wood/paper products and miscellaneous production/transportation. The former two of these categories were similar to subgroups of the B-list, but broader than the specific a priori defined jobs.ConclusionsSignificantly elevated lung cancer risk was associated with employment in some broad occupational categories that also included jobs with potential exposure to suspected carcinogens (B-list). The results suggest that although similar exposures to those described on the B-list may play a role in this cohort of Chinese women, carcinogenic exposure may not be restricted only to the jobs on the B-list.
| S-EPMC3007593 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe National Lung Screening Trial showed that lung cancer (LC) screening by three annual rounds of low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) reduces LC mortality. We evaluated the benefit of prolonged LDCT screening beyond 5 years, and its impact on overall and LC specific mortality at 10 years.DesignThe Multicentric Italian Lung Detection (MILD) trial prospectively randomized 4099 participants, to a screening arm (n = 2376), with further randomization to annual (n = 1190) or biennial (n = 1186) LDCT for a median period of 6 years, or control arm (n = 1723) without intervention. Between 2005 and 2018, 39 293 person-years of follow-up were accumulated. The primary outcomes were 10-year overall and LC specific mortality. Landmark analysis was used to test the long-term effect of LC screening, beyond 5 years by exclusion of LCs and deaths that occurred in the first 5 years.ResultsThe LDCT arm showed a 39% reduced risk of LC mortality at 10 years [hazard ratio (HR) 0.61; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.39-0.95], compared with control arm, and a 20% reduction of overall mortality (HR 0.80; 95% CI 0.62-1.03). LDCT benefit improved beyond the 5th year of screening, with a 58% reduced risk of LC mortality (HR 0.42; 95% CI 0.22-0.79), and 32% reduction of overall mortality (HR 0.68; 95% CI 0.49-0.94).ConclusionsThe MILD trial provides additional evidence that prolonged screening beyond 5 years can enhance the benefit of early detection and achieve a greater overall and LC mortality reduction compared with NLST trial.Clinicaltrials.gov identifierNCT02837809.
| S-EPMC6637372 | biostudies-literature