Dataset Information

Development and validation of a prediction model estimating the 10-year risk for type 2 diabetes in China.

ABSTRACT: PURPOSE:To derive and validate a concise prediction model estimating the 10-year risk for type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in China. METHODS:A total of 11494 subjects from the China Health and Nutrition Survey recorded from 2004 to 2015 were analyzed and only 6023 participants were enrolled in this study. Four logistic models were analyzed using the derivation cohort. Methods of calibration and discrimination were used for the validation cohort. RESULTS:In the derivation cohort, 257 patients were identified from a total of 4498 cases. In the validation cohort, 92 patients were identified from a total of 1525 cases. Four models performed nicely for both calibration and discrimination. The AUC in the derivation cohort for models A, B, C and D were 0.788 (0.761-0.816), 0.807 (0.780-0.834), 0.905 (0.879-0.932) and 0.882 (0.853-0.912), respectively. The Youden index for models A, B, C and D were 1.46, 1.48, 1.67 and 1.65, respectively. Model C showed the highest sensitivity and model D showed the highest specificity. CONCLUSION:Models A and B were non-invasive and can be used to identify high-risk patients for broad screening. Models C and D may be used to provide more accurate assessments of diabetes risk. Furthermore, model C showed the best performance for predicting T2DM risk and identifying individuals who are in need of interventions, current approach improvement and additional follow-up.

SUBMITTER: Shao X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7470416 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development and validation of a prediction model estimating the 10-year risk for type 2 diabetes in China.

Shao Xian X Wang Yao Y Huang Shuai S Liu Hongyan H Zhou Saijun S Zhang Rui R Yu Pei P

PloS one 20200903 9

<h4>Purpose</h4>To derive and validate a concise prediction model estimating the 10-year risk for type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in China.<h4>Methods</h4>A total of 11494 subjects from the China Health and Nutrition Survey recorded from 2004 to 2015 were analyzed and only 6023 participants were enrolled in this study. Four logistic models were analyzed using the derivation cohort. Methods of calibration and discrimination were used for the validation cohort.<h4>Results</h4>In the derivation cohort, 257 ...[more]

PMID: 32881911

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Project description:Aims/hypothesisWe aimed to report current rates of CVD in type 1 diabetes and to develop a CVD risk prediction tool for type 1 diabetes.MethodsA cohort of 27,527 people with type 1 diabetes without prior CVD was derived from the national register in Scotland. Incident CVD events during 199,552 person-years of follow-up were ascertained using hospital admissions and death registers. A Poisson regression model of CVD was developed and then validated in the Swedish National Diabetes Register (n = 33,183). We compared the percentage with a high 10 year CVD risk (i.e., ≥10%) using the model with the percentage eligible for statins using current guidelines by age.ResultsThe age-standardised rate of CVD per 100,000 person-years was 4070 and 3429 in men and women, respectively, with type 1 diabetes in Scotland, and 4014 and 3956 in men and women in Sweden. The final model was well calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow test p > 0.05) and included a further 22 terms over a base model of age, sex and diabetes duration (C statistic 0.82; 95% CI 0.81, 0.83). The model increased the base model C statistic from 0.66 to 0.80, from 0.60 to 0.75 and from 0.62 to 0.68 in those aged <40, 40-59 and ≥ 60 years, respectively (all p values <0.005). The model required minimal calibration in Sweden and had a C statistic of 0.85. Under current guidelines, >90% of those aged 20-39 years and 100% of those ≥40 years with type 1 diabetes were eligible for statins, but it was not until age 65 upwards that 100% had a modelled risk of CVD ≥10% in 10 years.Conclusions/interpretationA prediction tool such as that developed here can provide individualised risk predictions. This 10 year CVD risk prediction tool could facilitate patient discussions regarding appropriate statin prescribing. Apart from 10 year risk, such discussions may also consider longer-term CVD risk, the potential for greater benefits from early vs later statin intervention, the potential impact on quality of life of an early CVD event and evidence on safety, all of which could influence treatment decisions, particularly in younger people with type 1 diabetes.

Project description:Many studies had established the chronic kidney disease (CKD) prediction models, but most of them were conducted on the general population and not on patients with type 2 diabetes, especially in Asian populations. This study aimed to develop a risk prediction model for CKD in patients with type 2 diabetes from the Diabetes Care Management Program (DCMP) in Taiwan. This research was a retrospective cohort study. We used the DCMP database to set up a cohort of 4,601 patients with type 2 diabetes without CKD aged 40-92 years enrolled in the DCMP program of a Taichung medical center in 2002-2016. All patients were followed up until incidences of CKD, death, and loss to follow-up or 2016. The dataset for participants of national DCMP in 2002-2004 was used as external validation. The incident CKD cases were defined as having one of the following three conditions: ACR data greater than or equal to 300 (mg/g); both eGFR data less than 60 (ml/min/1.73 m2) and ACR data greater than or equal to 30 (mg/g); and eGFR data less than 45 (ml/min/1.73 m2). The study subjects were randomly allocated to derivation and validation sets at a 2:1 ratio. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to identify the risk factors of CKD in the derivation set. Time-varying area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the performance of the risk model. After an average of 3.8 years of follow-up period, 3,067 study subjects were included in the derivation set, and 786 (25.63%) were newly diagnosed CKD cases. A total of 1,534 participants were designated to the validation set, and 378 (24.64%) were newly diagnosed CKD cases. The final CKD risk factors consisted of age, duration of diabetes, insulin use, estimated glomerular filtration rate, albumin-to-creatinine ratio, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, diabetes retinopathy, variation in HbA1c, variation in FPG, and hypertension drug use. The AUC values of 1-, 3-, and 5-year CKD risks were 0.74, 0.76, and 0.77 in the validation set, respectively, and were 0.76, 0.77, and 0.76 in the sample for external validation, respectively. The value of Harrell's c-statistics was 0.76 (0.74, 0.78). The proposed model is the first CKD risk prediction model for type 2 diabetes patients in Taiwan. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year CKD risk prediction models showed good prediction accuracy. The model can be used as a guide for clinicians to develop medical plans for future CKD preventive intervention in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes.

Dataset Information

Development and validation of a prediction model estimating the 10-year risk for type 2 diabetes in China.

Publications

Development and validation of a prediction model estimating the 10-year risk for type 2 diabetes in China.

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