Forecasting demand for maternal influenza immunization in low- and lower-middle-income countries.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Debellut F
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6014664 | biostudies-literature | 2018
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Forecasting demand for maternal influenza immunization in low- and lower-middle-income countries.
Debellut Frédéric F Hendrix Nathaniel N Ortiz Justin R JR Lambach Philipp P Neuzil Kathleen M KM Bhat Niranjan N Pecenka Clint C
PloS one 20180622 6
Immunization of pregnant women against seasonal influenza remains limited in low- and lower-middle-income countries despite being recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). The WHO/PATH Maternal Influenza Immunization Project was created to identify and address obstacles to delivering influenza vaccines to pregnant women in low resource setting. To gain a better understanding of potential demand from this target group, we developed a model simulating pregnant women populations eligible ...[more]
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Project description:BACKGROUND:The World Health Organization (WHO) released a position paper in March 2018 calling for integration of a novel typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV) into routine immunization along with catch-up campaigns for children up to age 15. Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, has committed funding to help resource-constrained countries introduce this vaccine. In this article, the Typhoid Vaccine Acceleration Consortium forecasts demand if WHO recommendations are followed. METHODS:We built a model of global TCV introductions between 2020 and 2040 to estimate the demand of the vaccine for 133 countries. We estimated each country's year of introduction by examining its estimated incidence of typhoid fever, its history of introducing new vaccines, and any knowledge we have of its engagement with typhoid prevention, including intention to apply for Gavi funding. Our model predicted use in routine infant vaccination as well as campaigns targeting varying proportions of the unvaccinated population up to 15 years of age. RESULTS:Between 2020 and 2025, demand will predominantly come from African countries, many receiving Gavi support. After that, Asian countries generate most demand until 2030, when campaigns are estimated to end. Demand will then track the birth cohort of participating countries, suggesting an annual routine demand between 90 and 100 million doses. Peak demand is likely to occur between 2023 and 2026, approaching 300 million annual doses if campaign implementation is high. CONCLUSIONS:In our analysis, target population for catch-up campaigns is the main driver of uncertainty. At peak demand, there is some risk of exceeding presently estimated peak production capacity. Therefore, it will be important to carefully coordinate introductions, especially when accompanied by campaigns targeting large proportions of the eligible population.
| S-EPMC6405267 | biostudies-other
Project description:An estimated 23 million infants are still not being benefitted from routine immunization services. We assessed how many children failed to be fully immunized even though they or their mothers were in contact with health services to receive other interventions.Fourteen countries with Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys carried out after 2000 and with coverage for DPT (Diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis) vaccine below 70% were selected. We defined full immunization coverage (FIC) as having received one dose of BCG (bacille Calmette-Guérin), one dose of measles, three doses of polio, and three doses of DPT vaccines. We tabulated FIC against: antenatal care (ANC), skilled birth attendance (SBA), postnatal care for the mother (PNC), vitamin A supplementation (VitA) for the child, and sleeping under an insecticide-treated bed-net (ITN). Missed opportunities were defined as the percentage of children who failed to be fully immunized among those receiving one or more other interventions.Children who received other health interventions were also more likely to be fully immunized. In nearly all countries, FIC was lowest among children born to mothers who failed to attend ANC, and highest when the mother had four or more ANC visits Côte d'Ivoire presented the largest difference in FIC: 54 percentage points (pp) between having four or more ANC visits and lack of ANC. SBA was also related with higher FIC. For instance, the coverage in children without SBA was 36 pp lower than for those with SBA in Nigeria. The largest absolute difference on FIC in relation to PNC was observed for Ethiopia: 31 pp between those without and with PNC. FIC was also positively related with having received VitA. The largest absolute difference was observed in DR Congo: 41 pp. The differences in FIC among whether or not children slept under ITN were much smaller than for other interventions. Haiti presented the largest absolute difference: 16 pp.Our results show the need to develop and implement strategies to vaccinate all children who contact health services in order to receive other interventions.
| S-EPMC4856841 | biostudies-other
Project description:Novel vaccine development and production has given rise to a growing number of vaccines that can prevent disease and save lives. In order to realize these health benefits, it is essential to ensure adequate immunization financing to enable equitable access to vaccines for people in all communities. This analysis estimates the full immunization program costs, projected available financing, and resulting funding gap for 94 low- and middle-income countries over five years (2016-2020). Vaccine program financing by country governments, Gavi, and other development partners was forecasted for vaccine, supply chain, and service delivery, based on an analysis of comprehensive multi-year plans together with a series of scenario and sensitivity analyses. Findings indicate that delivery of full vaccination programs across 94 countries would result in a total funding gap of $7.6 billion (95% uncertainty range: $4.6-$11.8 billion) over 2016-2020, with the bulk (98%) of the resources required for routine immunization programs. More than half (65%) of the resources to meet this funding gap are required for service delivery at $5.0 billion ($2.7-$8.4 billion) with an additional $1.1 billion ($0.9-$2.7 billion) needed for vaccines and $1.5 billion ($1.1-$2.0 billion) for supply chain. When viewed as a percentage of total projected costs, the funding gap represents 66% of projected supply chain costs, 30% of service delivery costs, and 9% of vaccine costs. On average, this funding gap corresponds to 0.2% of general government expenditures and 2.3% of government health expenditures. These results suggest greater need for country and donor resource mobilization and funding allocation for immunizations. Both service delivery and supply chain are important areas for further resource mobilization. Further research on the impact of advances in service delivery technology and reductions in vaccine prices beyond this decade would be important for efficient investment decisions for immunization.
| S-EPMC5142419 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveThis study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of maternal acellular pertussis (aP) immunization in low- and middle-income countries using a dynamic transmission model.MethodsWe developed a dynamic transmission model to simulate the impact of infant vaccination with whole-cell pertussis (wP) vaccine with and without maternal aP immunization. The model was calibrated to Brazilian surveillance data and then used to project health outcomes and costs under alternative strategies in Brazil, and, after adjusting model parameter values to reflect their conditions, in Nigeria and Bangladesh. The primary measure of cost-effectiveness is incremental cost (2014 USD) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY).ResultsThe dynamic model shows that maternal aP immunization would be cost-effective in Brazil, a middle-income country, under the base-case assumptions, but would be very expensive at infant vaccination coverage in and above the threshold range necessary to eliminate the disease (90-95%). At 2007 infant coverage (DTP1 90%, DTP3 61% at 1 year of age), maternal immunization would cost < $4,000 per DALY averted. At high infant coverage, such as Brazil in 1996 (DTP1 94%, DTP3 74% at 1 year), cost/DALY increases to $1.27 million. When the model's time horizon was extended from 2030 to 2100, cost/DALY increased under both infant coverage levels, but more steeply with high coverage. The results were moderately sensitive to discount rate, maternal vaccine price, and maternal aP coverage and were robust using the 100 best-fitting parameter sets. Scenarios representing low-income countries showed that maternal aP immunization could be cost-saving in countries with low infant coverage, such as Nigeria, but very expensive in countries, such as Bangladesh, with high infant coverage.ConclusionA dynamic model, which captures the herd immunity benefits of pertussis vaccination, shows that, in low- and middle-income countries, maternal aP immunization is cost-effective when infant vaccination coverage is moderate, even cost-saving when it is low, but not cost-effective when coverage levels pass 90-95%.
| S-EPMC7735375 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMaternal mortality is a public health problem that disproportionately affects low and lower-middle income countries (LMICs). Appropriate data sources are lacking to effectively track maternal mortality and monitor changes in this health indicator over time.MethodsWe analyzed data from women enrolled in the NICHD Global Network for Women's and Children's Health Research Maternal Newborn Health Registry (MNHR) from 2010 through 2018. Women delivering within research sites in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Guatemala, India (Nagpur and Belagavi), Kenya, Pakistan, and Zambia are included. We evaluated maternal and delivery characteristics using log-binomial models and multivariable models to obtain relative risk estimates for mortality. We used running averages to track maternal mortality ratio (MMR, maternal deaths per 100,000 live births) over time.ResultsWe evaluated 571,321 pregnancies and 842 maternal deaths. We observed an MMR of 157 / 100,000 live births (95% CI 147, 167) across all sites, with a range of MMRs from 97 (76, 118) in the Guatemala site to 327 (293, 361) in the Pakistan site. When adjusted for maternal risk factors, risks of maternal mortality were higher with maternal age > 35 (RR 1.43 (1.06, 1.92)), no maternal education (RR 3.40 (2.08, 5.55)), lower education (RR 2.46 (1.54, 3.94)), nulliparity (RR 1.24 (1.01, 1.52)) and parity > 2 (RR 1.48 (1.15, 1.89)). Increased risk of maternal mortality was also associated with occurrence of obstructed labor (RR 1.58 (1.14, 2.19)), severe antepartum hemorrhage (RR 2.59 (1.83, 3.66)) and hypertensive disorders (RR 6.87 (5.05, 9.34)). Before and after adjusting for other characteristics, physician attendance at delivery, delivery in hospital and Caesarean delivery were associated with increased risk. We observed variable changes over time in the MMR within sites.ConclusionsThe MNHR is a useful tool for tracking MMRs in these LMICs. We identified maternal and delivery characteristics associated with increased risk of death, some might be confounded by indication. Despite declines in MMR in some sites, all sites had an MMR higher than the Sustainable Development Goals target of below 70 per 100,000 live births by 2030.Trial registrationThe MNHR is registered at NCT01073475 .
| S-EPMC7745363 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPregnancy and early infancy are considered to be the vulnerable phases for severe influenza infection causing morbidity and mortality. Despite WHO recommendations, influenza is not included in the immunization programs of many low- and middle-income countries. This systematic review is aimed at identifying barriers and facilitators for maternal influenza vaccination amongst the perinatal women and their health care providers in low- and middle-income countries.MethodsWe selected 11 studies from the 1669 records identified from PubMed, CABI, EMBASE and Global Health databases. Studies related to both pandemic and routine influenza vaccination and studies conducted amongst women in the antenatal as well as postnatal period were included. Both qualitative, quantitative, cross-sectional and interventional studies were included.ResultsKnowledge about influenza disease, perception of the disease severity during pregnancy and risk to the foetus/newborn and perceived benefits of influenza vaccination during pregnancy were associated with increased uptake of influenza vaccination during pregnancy. Recommendation by health care provider, vaccination in previous pregnancy and availability of vaccine in public health system facilitated vaccine uptake. High parity, higher education, vaccination in the later months of pregnancy, less than 4 antenatal visits, concerns about vaccine safety and negative publicity in media were identified as barriers for influenza vaccination. Lack of government recommendation, concerns about safety and effectiveness and distrust in manufacturer were the barriers for the healthcare providers to recommend vaccination.ConclusionWhile availability of influenza vaccine in public health system can be a key to the success of vaccine implementation program, increasing the awareness about need and benefits of maternal influenza vaccination amongst pregnant women as well as their health care providers is crucial to improve the acceptance of maternal influenza vaccination in low and middle-income countries.
| S-EPMC8791521 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVE:To investigate the association between maternal employment and childhood overweight in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Design/Setting We utilized cross-sectional data from forty-five Demographic and Health Surveys from 2010 to 2016 (n 268 763). Mothers were categorized as formally employed, informally employed or non-employed. We used country-specific logistic regression models to investigate the association between maternal employment and childhood overweight (BMI Z-score>2) and assessed heterogeneity in the association by maternal education with the inclusion of an interaction term. We used meta-analysis to pool the associations across countries. Sensitivity analyses included modelling BMI Z-score and normal weight (weight-for-age Z-score?-2 to <2) as outcomes. SUBJECTS:Participants included children 0-5 years old and their mothers (aged 18-49 years). RESULTS:In most countries, neither formal nor informal employment was associated with childhood overweight. However, children of employed mothers, compared with children of non-employed mothers, had higher BMI Z-score and higher odds of normal weight. In countries where the association varied by education, children of formally employed women with high education, compared with children of non-employed women with high education, had higher odds of overweight (pooled OR=1·2; 95 % CI 1·0, 1·4). CONCLUSIONS:We find no clear association between employment and child overweight. However, maternal employment is associated with a modestly higher BMI Z-score and normal weight, suggesting that employment is currently associated with beneficial effects on children's weight status in most LMIC.
| S-EPMC7059352 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background?Despite longstanding infant vaccination programs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), pertussis continues to cause deaths in the youngest infants. A maternal monovalent acellular pertussis (aP) vaccine, in development, could prevent many of these deaths. We estimated infant pertussis mortality rates at which maternal vaccination would be a cost-effective use of public health resources in LMICs.Methods?We developed a decision model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of maternal aP immunization plus routine infant vaccination vs routine infant vaccination alone in Bangladesh, Nigeria, and Brazil. For a range of maternal aP vaccine prices, one-way sensitivity analyses identified the infant pertussis mortality rates required to make maternal immunization cost-effective by alternative benchmarks ($100, 0.5 gross domestic product [GDP] per capita, and GDP per capita per disability-adjusted life-year [DALY]). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis provided uncertainty intervals for these mortality rates.Results?Infant pertussis mortality rates necessary to make maternal aP immunization cost-effective exceed the rates suggested by current evidence except at low vaccine prices and/or cost-effectiveness benchmarks at the high end of those considered in this report. For example, at a vaccine price of $0.50/dose, pertussis mortality would need to be 0.051 per 1000 infants in Bangladesh, and 0.018 per 1000 in Nigeria, to cost 0.5 per capita GDP per DALY. In Brazil, a middle-income country, at a vaccine price of $4/dose, infant pertussis mortality would need to be 0.043 per 1000 to cost 0.5 per capita GDP per DALY.Conclusions?For commonly used cost-effectiveness benchmarks, maternal aP immunization would be cost-effective in many LMICs only if the vaccine were offered at less than $1-$2/dose.
| S-EPMC5106625 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: Due to high fertility rates in some low and lower-middle income countries, the interval between pregnancies can be short, which may lead to adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes.Methods: We analyzed data from women enrolled in the NICHD Global Network Maternal Newborn Health Registry (MNHR) from 2013 through 2018. We report maternal characteristics and outcomes in relationship to the inter-delivery interval (IDI, time from previous delivery [live or stillborn] to the delivery of the index birth), by category of 6-17?months (short), 18-36?months (reference), 37-60?months, and 61-180?months (long). We used non-parametric tests for maternal characteristics, and multivariable logistic regression models for outcomes, controlling for differences in baseline characteristics.Results: We evaluated 181,782 women from sites in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia, Kenya, Guatemala, India, and Pakistan. Women with short IDI varied by site, from 3% in the Zambia site to 20% in the Pakistan site. Relative to a 18-36?month IDI, women with short IDI had increased risk of neonatal death (RR?=?1.89 [1.74, 2.05]), stillbirth (RR?=?1.70 [1.56, 1.86]), low birth weight (RR?=?1.38 [1.32, 1.44]), and very low birth weight (RR?=?2.35 [2.10, 2.62]). Relative to a 18-36?month IDI, women with IDI of 37-60?months had an increased risk of maternal death (RR 1.40 [1.05, 1.88]), stillbirth (RR 1.14 [1.08, 1.22]), and very low birth weight (RR 1.10 [1.01, 1.21]). Relative to a 18-36?month IDI, women with long IDI had increased risk of maternal death (RR 1.54 [1.10, 2.16]), neonatal death (RR?=?1.25 [1.14, 1.38]), stillbirth (RR?=?1.50 [1.38, 1.62]), low birth weight (RR?=?1.22 [1.17, 1.27]), and very low birth weight (RR?=?1.47 [1.32,1.64]). Short and long IDIs were also associated with increased risk of obstructed labor, hemorrhage, hypertensive disorders, fetal malposition, infection, hospitalization, preterm delivery, and neonatal hospitalization.Conclusions: IDI varies by site. When compared to 18-36?month IDI, women with both short IDI and long IDI had increased risk of adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes.Trial registration: The MNHR is registered at NCT01073475 .
| S-EPMC7708104 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVES:To assess the frequency of maternal death (MD) due to cardiac disease in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). METHODS:Systematic review searching Medline, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Emcare, LILACS, African Index Medicus, IMEMR, IndMED, WPRIM, IMSEAR up to 01/Nov/2017. Maternal mortality reports from LMIC reviewing all MD in a given geographical area were included. Hospital-based reports or those solely based on verbal autopsies were excluded. Numbers of MD and cardiac-related deaths were extracted. We calculated cardiac disease MMR (cMMR, cardiac-related MD/100 000 live births) and proportion of cardiac-related MDs among all MDs. Frequency of cardiac MD was compared with the MMR of the country. RESULTS:Forty-seven reports were included, which reported on 38,486 maternal deaths in LMIC. Reported cMMR ranged from 0/100 000 live births (Moldova, Ghana) to 31.9/100 000 (Zimbabwe). The proportion of cardiac-related MD ranged from 0% (Moldova, Ghana) to 24.8% (Sri Lanka). In countries with a higher MMR, cMMR was also higher. However, the proportion of cardiac-related MD was higher in countries with a lower MMR. CONCLUSIONS:The burden of cardiac-related mortality is difficult to assess due limited availability of mortality reports. The proportion of cardiac deaths among all MD appeared to be higher in countries with a lower MMR. This is in line with what has been called 'obstetric transition': pre-existing medical diseases including cardiac disease are becoming relatively more important where the MMR falls.
| S-EPMC7318167 | biostudies-literature