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Validity of inferring size-selective mortality and a critical size limit in Pacific salmon from scale circulus spacing.

ABSTRACT: Size-selective mortality owing to lack of energy reserves during the first marine winter has been suggested to be a result of juvenile salmon failing to reach a critical size or condition by the end of their first marine summer and not surviving the following winter due to this presumed energy deficit. This hypothesis implies strong size dependency of mortality, and is subject to empirical data support for acceptance. Scale circulus spacing has been interpreted as an index for body size, and we reviewed the effect of size-selective mortality with a knife-edge mortality function on descriptive statistics for a scale circulus spacing index (SCSI). In order to invoke size selection as an important driver of mortality during the first year of ocean rearing, it is necessary to demonstrate not only that size-selective mortality is directed towards the smaller members of the population, but that the selective nature of the mortality can account for a substantial portion of the observed mortality. If the assumption is made that a random sample of a single juvenile population has been obtained, then studies that employ a SCSI to infer size-selective mortality coupled with a critical size limit must demonstrate a shift toward larger values of the SCSI, but also a concomitant reduction in the variance and range of the SCSI and an increase in the skewness and kurtosis of the SCSI values. Through simulation we found that the percentage of adults that displayed a SCSI value greater than the maximum observed in the juvenile sample was highly dependent on the initial juvenile sample size and size-selective mortality rate. Geographical distributions of juvenile Pacific salmon can be stratified by size, with larger individuals migrating earlier from local ocean entry locations than smaller individuals, and thus differential timing migration of juveniles based upon body size prior to the collection of the marine juvenile sample may be a more plausible explanation of published trends in the SCSI, rather than invoking substantial size-selective mortality and a critical size limit.

SUBMITTER: Beacham TD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6019399 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Validity of inferring size-selective mortality and a critical size limit in Pacific salmon from scale circulus spacing.

Beacham Terry D TD Araujo H Andres HA Tucker Strahan S Trudel Marc M

PloS one 20180626 6

Size-selective mortality owing to lack of energy reserves during the first marine winter has been suggested to be a result of juvenile salmon failing to reach a critical size or condition by the end of their first marine summer and not surviving the following winter due to this presumed energy deficit. This hypothesis implies strong size dependency of mortality, and is subject to empirical data support for acceptance. Scale circulus spacing has been interpreted as an index for body size, and we ...[more]

PMID: 29944683

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Project description:Myriad human activities increasingly threaten the existence of many species. A variety of conservation interventions such as habitat restoration, protected areas, and captive breeding have been used to prevent extinctions. Evaluating the effectiveness of these interventions requires appropriate statistical methods, given the quantity and quality of available data. Historically, analysis of variance has been used with some form of predetermined before-after control-impact design to estimate the effects of large-scale experiments or conservation interventions. However, ad hoc retrospective study designs or the presence of random effects at multiple scales may preclude the use of these tools. We evaluated the effects of a large-scale supplementation program on the density of adult Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha from the Snake River basin in the northwestern United States currently listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. We analyzed 43 years of data from 22 populations, accounting for random effects across time and space using a form of Bayesian hierarchical time-series model common in analyses of financial markets. We found that varying degrees of supplementation over a period of 25 years increased the density of natural-origin adults, on average, by 0-8% relative to nonsupplementation years. Thirty-nine of the 43 year effects were at least two times larger in magnitude than the mean supplementation effect, suggesting common environmental variables play a more important role in driving interannual variability in adult density. Additional residual variation in density varied considerably across the region, but there was no systematic difference between supplemented and reference populations. Our results demonstrate the power of hierarchical Bayesian models to detect the diffuse effects of management interventions and to quantitatively describe the variability of intervention success. Nevertheless, our study could not address whether ecological factors (e.g., competition) were more important than genetic considerations (e.g., inbreeding depression) in determining the response to supplementation.

Dataset Information

Validity of inferring size-selective mortality and a critical size limit in Pacific salmon from scale circulus spacing.

Publications

Validity of inferring size-selective mortality and a critical size limit in Pacific salmon from scale circulus spacing.

Similar Datasets

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