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Combining data-derived priors with postrelease monitoring data to predict persistence of reintroduced populations.

ABSTRACT: Monitoring is an essential part of reintroduction programs, but many years of data may be needed to obtain reliable population projections. This duration can potentially be reduced by incorporating prior information on expected vital rates (survival and fecundity) when making inferences from monitoring data. The prior distributions for these parameters can be derived from data for previous reintroductions, but it is important to account for site-to-site variation. We evaluated whether such informative priors improved our ability to estimate the finite rate of increase (?) of the North Island robin (Petroica longipes) population reintroduced to Tawharanui Regional Park, New Zealand. We assessed how precision improved with each year of postrelease data added, comparing models that used informative or uninformative priors. The population grew from about 22 to 80 individuals from 2007 to 2016, with ? estimated to be 1.23 if density dependence was included in the model and 1.13 otherwise. Under either model, 7 years of data were required before the lower 95% credible limit for ? was > 1, giving confidence that the population would persist. The informative priors did not reduce this requirement. Data-derived priors are useful before reintroduction because they allow ? to be estimated in advance. However, in the case examined here, the value of the priors was overwhelmed once site-specific monitoring data became available. The Bayesian method presented is logical for reintroduced populations. It allows prior information (used to inform prerelease decisions) to be integrated with postrelease monitoring. This makes full use of the data for ongoing management decisions. However, if the priors properly account for site-to-site variation, they may have little predictive value compared with the site-specific data. This value will depend on the degree of site-to-site variation as well as the quality of the data.

SUBMITTER: Drummond FM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6024125 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Combining data-derived priors with postrelease monitoring data to predict persistence of reintroduced populations.

Drummond Faline M FM Lovegrove Tim G TG Armstrong Doug P DP

Ecology and evolution 20180522 12

Monitoring is an essential part of reintroduction programs, but many years of data may be needed to obtain reliable population projections. This duration can potentially be reduced by incorporating prior information on expected vital rates (survival and fecundity) when making inferences from monitoring data. The prior distributions for these parameters can be derived from data for previous reintroductions, but it is important to account for site-to-site variation. We evaluated whether such infor ...[more]

PMID: 29988454

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Project description:AimIn Africa, reintroduction of wild animal species to conservation areas is a common practice, for the recovery or restoration of populations. Effective monitoring of reintroduced species requires understanding of basic ecological requirements such as habitat selection of these species in the new environment. Therefore, the present study investigated the habitat selection of zebra and wildebeest following their reintroduction into Maputo Special Reserve, south Mozambique, and we use binary logistic analyses to investigate the relative influence of biotic and abiotic factors in determining the habitat use.LocationMaputo Special Reserve, south Mozambique.MethodsWe conducted the study from July 2016 to June 2017. The data were collected by direct observation, driving the vehicle along the reserve's roads that covered the vegetation communities where zebras and wildebeest are known to commonly occur. Habitat selection was calculated using selection indices (Manly's alpha), and binary logistic analyses were used to investigate the relative influence of biotic and abiotic factors in determining the habitat use.ResultsThe arboreal savanna was the preferred habitat by both herbivore species. Habitat use of zebra appeared to be strongly determined by characteristics such as high grass cover, high grass greenness, and distance to water, while the habitat use by wildebeest, was strongly affected by grass height.Main conclusionsBoth zebra and wildebeest prefer arboreal savanna, forage selection likely drove preference of this habitat. Greater grass cover and greater percentage greenness of the grass both significantly increased the odds of zebra use of habitat, whereas the odds of use decreased with increases in distance to water, meaning an opportunity to ingest large amounts of grass biomass with higher quality, and this opportunity decreases with increasing in distance to water. Grass height was in the highest-ranking model predicting habitat use by wildebeest, and during the dry season the use of habitat increased with increasing grass height, suggesting that selecting areas with tall grasses by wildebeest equated to choosing areas with higher grass quantity, as the food intake rate increases with grass height.

Project description:Theories of dispersal and senescence (or aging) predict that dispersal, and ongoing survival and body condition, are influenced by evolutionary drivers, along with intrinsic and extrinsic factors. Such theories are relevant to translocations of animals where high mortality, loss of body condition, and dispersal beyond the area of release are commonly reported. However, these theories have rarely been tested using data from translocations.We explore whether theories of dispersal and senescence, together with biological knowledge and management interventions, can predict rates of postrelease dispersal, survival and change in body condition of a translocated endangered meso-predator, the eastern quoll Dasyurus viverrinus.Captive-bred quolls (n = 60) from three sanctuaries were translocated to an unfenced, predator-managed reserve (Booderee National Park) over 2 years (2018, 2019). Survival, dispersal and body mass were monitored via GPS/VHF tracking and targeted trapping for 45 days postrelease.We found support for the "social subordinate" hypothesis, with smaller quolls dispersing further. Consistent with theories of senescence and the biology of our species, survival was marginally greater for females, and females regained losses in body mass in both years following release. In contrast, males recovered body condition in the first but not the second release as this coincided with breeding. Quolls that originated from the mainland sanctuary were on average heavier at release and, after accounting for weight, dispersed further. Synthesis and applications. Using theory to test outcomes of wildlife translocations can provide insights into patterns across taxa and under different conditions, enabling useful improvements to future fauna translocations. This allows for better predictions to be made about the likelihood of success from proposed translocations, changes to planning to improve outcomes (e.g., modifying sex ratios, individual selection and release cohort), and improved animal welfare as fewer animals are subjected to trials.

Dataset Information

Combining data-derived priors with postrelease monitoring data to predict persistence of reintroduced populations.

Publications

Combining data-derived priors with postrelease monitoring data to predict persistence of reintroduced populations.

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