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The averted infections ratio: a novel measure of effectiveness of experimental HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis agents.

ABSTRACT: Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate combined with emtricitabine is a highly effective oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) agent for preventing the acquisition of HIV. This effectiveness has consequences for the design and analysis of trials assessing experimental PrEP regimens, which now generally include an active-control tenofovir disoproxil fumarate plus emtricitabine group, rather than a placebo group, as a comparator. Herein, we describe major problems in the interpretation of the primary measure of effectiveness proposed for these trials, namely the ratio of HIV incidence in the experimental agent group to that in the active-control group. We argue that valid interpretation requires an assumption about one of two parameters: either the incidence among trial participants had they not received PrEP or the effectiveness of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate plus emtricitabine within the trial. However, neither parameter is directly observed because of the absence of a no-treatment group, thus requiring the use of external evidence or subjective judgment. We propose an alternative measure of effectiveness based on the concept of averted infections, which incorporates one of these parameters. The measure is simple to interpret, has clinical and public health relevance, and is a natural preservation-of-effect criterion for assessing statistical non-inferiority. Its adoption could also allow the use of smaller sample sizes, currently a major barrier to the assessment of experimental PrEP regimens.

SUBMITTER: Dunn DT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6035730 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The averted infections ratio: a novel measure of effectiveness of experimental HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis agents.

Dunn David T DT Glidden David V DV Stirrup Oliver T OT McCormack Sheena S

The lancet. HIV 20180601 6

Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate combined with emtricitabine is a highly effective oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) agent for preventing the acquisition of HIV. This effectiveness has consequences for the design and analysis of trials assessing experimental PrEP regimens, which now generally include an active-control tenofovir disoproxil fumarate plus emtricitabine group, rather than a placebo group, as a comparator. Herein, we describe major problems in the interpretation of the primary measur ...[more]

PMID: 29893246

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Project description:Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has emerged as a promising strategy for preventing the transmission of HIV. Although only one formulation is currently approved for PrEP, research into both new compounds and new delivery systems for PrEP regimens offer intriguing challenges from the perspective of pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic modeling. This review aims to provide an overview the current modeling landscape for HIV PrEP, focused on PK/PD and QSP models relating to antiretroviral agents. Both current PrEP treatments and new compounds that show promise as PrEP agents are highlighted, as well as models of uncommon administration routes, predictions based on models of mechanism of action and viral dynamics, and issues related to adherence to therapy. The spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains one of the foremost global health concerns. In the absence of a vaccine, other prophylactic strategies have been developed to prevent HIV transmission. One approach, known as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), allows HIV-negative individuals who are at high risk of exposure to the virus, be it through an HIV-positive sexual partner or through the shared use of drug injection equipment, to substantially reduce the risk of developing an HIV infection. PrEP is a relatively recent approach to combating the HIV epidemic, with the only currently approved treatment being Truvada, a daily oral antiretroviral (ARV) therapy initially indicated in the treatment of active HIV-1 infections, but approved for HIV PrEP in 2012. Although PrEP therapy has consistently demonstrated high efficacy in preventing HIV infection, this efficacy is dependent on patient adherence to the prescribed treatment regimen. This can present a significant problem in low- and middle-income countries, which may lack the infrastructure to provide sufficient access to PrEP medication to maintain daily dosing regimens. Furthermore, while the conventional approach has generally been to advocate for continuous administration akin to regimens used for viral suppression in infected patients, there has been some discussion of whether a better treatment paradigm might be to push for PrEP therapy primarily during those known periods of heightened exposure risk, while relying on post-exposure prophylaxis regimens to prevent infection after unanticipated exposures during low-risk periods. These considerations have led to a push for the development of long-duration and on-demand PrEP formulations, including subdermal and subcutaneous implants, slow-release intramuscular depot injections, vaginal and rectal antimicrobial gels, and intravaginal rings and dissolving films. PrEP therapy is a quickly evolving field, with a variety of antiretroviral compounds and formulations under investigation. This review aims to report on notable drugs and formulations from a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modeling perspective. Given the nature of PrEP as a preventive therapy designed for long-term use, clinical trials for PrEP therapies can last for months or even years, particularly in the case of long-duration formulations. Furthermore, in contrast to antiretroviral trials in infected patients, pharmacodynamic endpoints in PrEP therapies are difficult to quantify, as the primary endpoint for efficacy is generally the rate of seroconversion. Computational modeling approaches offer flexible and powerful tools to provide insight into drug behavior in clinical settings, and can ultimately reduce the time, expense, and patient burden incurred in the development of PrEP therapies.

Project description:As pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) effectiveness is strongly linked to adherence, we sought to determine if certain self-report measures could be used to inform objective PrEP adherence. We studied participants from the TAPIR study (a multicenter randomized study of daily text messages to support adherence to PrEP In At-Risk), a 48-week randomized controlled trial of HIV-uninfected men who have sex with men (MSM) randomized to receive text message to support adherence versus standard of care. Self-reported medication adherence was assessed using several validated measures modified for PrEP. Objective PrEP adherence was determined through dried blood spot (DBS) measurement of intracellular tenofovir diphosphate (TFV-DP) and emtricitabine triphosphate (FTC-TP). A summary of adherence was estimated using responses to the seven adherence items at weeks 12 and 48 using confirmatory factor analysis. Correlations between self-report questions and drug concentrations were estimated with Pearson's correlations for continuous outcomes and point-biserial correlations for dichotomous outcomes. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were conducted to assess the performance of self-report measures in predicting protective or perfect TFV-DP concentrations. Of the 369 participants who completed week 12 or 48 visits, the mean age was 35 (standard deviation 9 years), with 79% White, 12% Black, and 29% Hispanic. Correlations between self-report measures of adherence (both individual items and the adherence factor) and quantifiable FTC-TP and continuous TFV-DP concentrations showed that all self-report measures were significantly associated with these objective measures. Compared to a summary measure of self-reported adherence, the 4-week percent taken question medication recall was the only self-report item similarly or more strongly associated with recent adherence and long-term protective and perfect adherence at weeks 12 and 48. ROC analysis also showed that 4-week percent taken question had a reasonable AUC (0.798 at week 12 and 0.758 at week 48) in predicting protective TFV-DP concentrations. All single-item self-report questions assessing PrEP adherence were significantly associated with biomarker quantification, with the 4-week percent taken question performing best. Therefore, in the absence of drug concentration measurements, a 4-week self-report percent taken question may be a good single-item measure of PrEP adherence.

Project description:INTRODUCTION:Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) provision is a priority intervention for high HIV prevalence settings and populations at substantial risk of HIV acquisition. This mathematical modelling analysis estimated the impact, cost and cost-effectiveness of scaling up oral PrEP in 13 countries. METHODS:We projected the impact and cost-effectiveness of oral PrEP between 2018 and 2030 using a combination of the Incidence Patterns Model and the Goals model. We created four PrEP rollout scenarios involving three priority populations-female sex workers (FSWs), serodiscordant couples (SDCs) and adolescent girls and young women (AGYW)-both with and without geographic prioritization. We applied the model to 13 countries (Eswatini, Ethiopia, Haiti, Kenya, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe). The base case assumed achievement of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS 90-90-90 antiretroviral therapy targets, 90% male circumcision coverage by 2020 and 90% efficacy and adherence levels for oral PrEP. RESULTS:In the scenarios we examined, oral PrEP averted 3% to 8% of HIV infections across the 13 countries between 2018 and 2030. For all but three countries, more than 50% of the HIV infections averted by oral PrEP in the scenarios we examined could be obtained by rollout to FSWs and SDCs alone. For several countries, expanding oral PrEP to include medium-risk AGYW in all regions greatly increased the impact. The efficiency and impact benefits of geographic prioritization of rollout to AGYW varied across countries. Variations in cost-effectiveness across countries reflected differences in HIV incidence and expected variations in unit cost. For most countries, rolling out oral PrEP to FSWs, SDCs and geographically prioritized AGYW was not projected to have a substantial impact on the supply chain for antiretroviral drugs. CONCLUSIONS:These modelling results can inform prioritization, target-setting and other decisions related to oral PrEP scale-up within combination prevention programmes. We caution against extensive use given limitations in cost data and implementation approaches. This analysis highlights some of the immediate challenges facing countries-for example, trade-offs between overall impact and cost-effectiveness-and emphasizes the need to improve data availability and risk assessment tools to help countries make informed decisions.

Dataset Information

The averted infections ratio: a novel measure of effectiveness of experimental HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis agents.

Publications

The averted infections ratio: a novel measure of effectiveness of experimental HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis agents.

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