Dataset Information

Trend of HIV/AIDS for the last 26 years and predicting achievement of the 90-90-90 HIV prevention targets by 2020 in Ethiopia: a time series analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

HIV infection continues to be epidemic of public health importance with a prevalence of 1.1% and incidence of 0.33/1000 population having low-intensity mixed epidemic. Ethiopia has adopted the 90-90-90 by 2020 target but its progress was not yet assessed. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the trend of HIV infection for the last 26 years and to predict the achievements of the 90-90-90 target.

Methods

We used aggregates of HIV/AIDS indicator data from 1990 to 2016 of UNAIDS data bases. The data were analyzed with excel and STATA. The trend line that best fits the regression was drawn, annual change was estimated and future values of HIV detection rate, coverage of antiretroviral therapy and viral suppression indicators were predicted and compared with the 90-90-90 targets.

Result

Since 1995, new infection has declined by 81% and since 2002; number of HIV cases has declined by 35.5%. However, after remarkable decline for decades, since 2008 HIV incidence rate began to rise by 10% and number of new infection diagnosed each year increased by 36% among all ages and doubled among adults. ART coverage has increased by 90% among all age and tripled among pregnant women within 6 years. Nationally, 67% of people living with HIV know their status, 88% of them are on treatment and 86% of people on treatment have viral suppression. As a result, AIDS-related death declined by 77 and 79% among all age and children respectively. By 2020, 79% of people living with HIV will know their HIV status, of which 96-99% of HIV infected people will be on ART and more than 86% will have viral suppression.

Conclusion

After remarkable decline, HIV infection started to increase in the last few years among adults. With the current trend, Ethiopia will achieve the second and third 90% HIV targets, while the first target is not achievable and without achieving this overarching goal control of the epidemic will not be achieved. Therefore due attention is needed to avert the current epidemics and diagnosis of cases.

SUBMITTER: Girum T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6042262 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Trend of HIV/AIDS for the last 26 years and predicting achievement of the 90-90-90 HIV prevention targets by 2020 in Ethiopia: a time series analysis.

Girum Tadele T Wasie Abebaw A Worku Abdulsemed A

BMC infectious diseases 20180711 1

<h4>Background</h4>HIV infection continues to be epidemic of public health importance with a prevalence of 1.1% and incidence of 0.33/1000 population having low-intensity mixed epidemic. Ethiopia has adopted the 90-90-90 by 2020 target but its progress was not yet assessed. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the trend of HIV infection for the last 26 years and to predict the achievements of the 90-90-90 target.<h4>Methods</h4>We used aggregates of HIV/AIDS indicator data from 1990 to 2016 of ...[more]

PMID: 29996776

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Project description:The HIV/AIDS epidemic has been fuelled by gender inequality and disparity resulted in violation of women reproductive right. The "feminization" of the pandemic is more apparent in Sub-Saharan Africa where the larger numbers of HIV infected people are living. Although they carry the higher proportion of HIV cases; access to care and treatment is lower among women. In Ethiopia where HIV is prevalent and gender violence is common, the disparity may be higher. Therefore, this research aimed to assesses trends in gender disparity in the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Ethiopia to bring evidence for action.This study was conducted using aggregates of HIV/AIDS indicator data from 1990 to 2016 of UNAIDS data bases. The data was compiled and analyzed with excel and STATA Version 11. The trend was assessed, gender difference was measured and rate of change was compared between genders and specific age groups.Adult females (age 15+) accounted 61.5% of the HIV cases and new infection among adults. While, adolescent females (age 10-19) and young women (age 15-24) accounted 52.3 and 57.5% of prevalent cases and 74 and 68% of new infection in their age category respectively. HIV is 1.62 times more prevalent among adult women than men. Since 1990, HIV cases among adults has risen markedly in the first decade with 24 and 20%, then declined by 41.5% in the second decade and rose again by 5 and 8.7% among women and men respectively. The overall prevalence is declined by 72.4 and 71.5% from the maximum record. Women and men have equal access for ART; 62% of men and 61% of women from all adults living with HIV were on ART. While 61% of deaths were among adult women and the death rate is similar among adolescent women and men. AIDS- related death has been declined by 76% from the maximum record.HIV/AIDS prevalence, new infection and AIDS-related death are by far higher among adult women than men. While the coverage of treatment and HIV care is equal among both genders. Vulnerable age groups (adolescent females and young women) take the lion's share of the new infections and prevalent cases. Therefore due attention is needed to avert gender disparity with a particular emphasis for adolescents and young women.

Project description:IntroductionThe 90-90-90 targets set by the United Nations aspire to 73% of people living with HIV (PLHIV) being virally suppressed by 2020. Using the HIV Synthesis Model, we aim to mimic the epidemic in Zimbabwe and make projections to assess whether Zimbabwe is on track to meet the 90-90-90 targets and assess whether recently proposed UNAIDS HIV transition metrics are likely to be met.MethodsWe used an approximate Bayesian computation approach to identify model parameter values which result in model outputs consistent with observed data, evaluated using a calibration score. These parameter values were then used to make projections to 2020 to compare with the 90-90-90 targets and other key indicators. We also calculated HIV transition metrics proposed by UNAIDS (percentage reduction in new HIV infections and AIDS-related mortality from 2010 to 2020, absolute rate of new infections and AIDS-related mortality, incidence-mortality ratio and incidence-prevalence ratios).ResultsAfter calibration, there was general agreement between modelled and observed data. The median predicted outcomes in 2020 were: proportion of PLHIV (aged 15 to 65) diagnosed 0.91 (90% uncertainty range 0.87, 0.94) (0.84 men, 0.95 women); of those diagnosed, proportion on treatment 0.92 (0.90, 0.93); of those receiving treatment, proportion with viral suppression 0.86 (0.81, 0.91). This results in 72% of PLHIV having viral suppression in 2020. We estimated a percentage reduction of 36.5% (13.7% increase to 67.4% reduction) in new infections from 2010 to 2020, and of 30.4% (9.7% increase to 56.6% reduction) in AIDS-related mortality (UNAIDS target 75%). The modelled absolute rates of HIV incidence and AIDS-related mortality in 2020 were 5.48 (2.26, 9.24) and 1.93 (1.31, 2.71) per 1000 person-years respectively. The modelled incidence-mortality ratio and incidence-prevalence ratios in 2020 were 1.05 (0.46, 1.66) and 0.009 (0.004, 0.013) respectively.ConclusionsOur model was able to produce outputs that are simultaneously consistent with an array of observed data and predicted that while the 90-90-90 targets are within reach in Zimbabwe, increased efforts are required in diagnosing men in particular. Calculation of the HIV transition metrics suggest increased efforts are needed to bring the HIV epidemic under control.

Project description:BackgroundSustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.3, targets to eliminate HIV from being a public health threat by 2030. For better tracking of this target interim Fast Track milestones for 2020 and composite complementary measures have been indicated. This study measured the Fast Track progress in the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS in Ethiopia across ages compared to neighboring countries.MethodsThe National Data Management Center for health's research team at the Ethiopian Public Health Institute has analyzed the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 secondary data for the year 2010 to 2017 for Ethiopia and its neighbors. GBD 2017 data sources were census, demographic and a health survey, prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission, antiretroviral treatment programs, sentinel surveillance, and UNAIDS reports. Age-standardized and age-specific HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), incidence:mortality ratio and incidence:prevalence ratio were calculated with corresponding 95% confidence intervals.ResultsEthiopia and neighboring countries recorded slow progress in reducing new HIV infection since 2010. Only Uganda would achieve the 75% target by 2020. Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda already achieved the 75% mortality reduction target set for 2020. The incidence: prevalence ratio for Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Uganda were < 0.03, indicating the countries were on track to end HIV by 2030. Ethiopia had an incidence: mortality ratio < 1 due to high mortality; while Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda had a ratio of > 1 due to high incidence. The HIV incidence rate in Ethiopia was dropped by 76% among under 5 children in 2017 compared to 2010 and the country would likely to attain the 2020 national target, but far behind achieving the target among the 15-49 age group.ConclusionsEthiopia and neighboring countries have made remarkable progress towards achieving the 75% HIV/AIDS mortality reduction target by 2020, although they progressed poorly in reducing HIV incidence. By recording an incidence:prevalence ratio benchmark of less than 0.03, Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Uganda are well heading towards epidemic control. Nonetheless, the high HIV/AIDS mortality rate in Ethiopia for its incidence requires innovative strategies to reach out undiagnosed cases and to build institutional capacity for generating strong evidence to ensure sustainable epidemic control.

Dataset Information

Trend of HIV/AIDS for the last 26 years and predicting achievement of the 90-90-90 HIV prevention targets by 2020 in Ethiopia: a time series analysis.

Background

Methods

Result

Conclusion

Publications

Trend of HIV/AIDS for the last 26 years and predicting achievement of the 90-90-90 HIV prevention targets by 2020 in Ethiopia: a time series analysis.

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