A hierarchical Bayesian model to predict APOE4 genotype and the age of Alzheimer's disease onset.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Hane F
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6042730 | biostudies-literature | 2018
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
A hierarchical Bayesian model to predict APOE4 genotype and the age of Alzheimer's disease onset.
Hane Francis F Augusta Carolyn C Bai Owen O
PloS one 20180712 7
In this work we use a hierarchical Bayesian paradigm to introduce a theoretical framework to determine an individual's Apolipoprotein ε4 (APOE4) genotype, which heavily influences both the age of onset and probability of acquiring Alzheimer's disease (AD). This calculation is based solely on an individual's family history. This APOE4 genotype estimation is then combined with a number of known factors that influence AD onset to produce a function that estimates the onset of AD as a function of ag ...[more]
Similar Datasets
Project description:Background and purposeHow the APOE genotype can differentially affect cortical and subcortical memory structures in biomarker-confirmed early-onset (EOAD) and late-onset (LOAD) Alzheimer's disease (AD) was assessed.MethodEighty-seven cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarker-confirmed AD patients were classified according to their APOE genotype and age at onset. 28 were EOAD APOE4 carriers (+EOAD), 21 EOAD APOE4 non-carriers (-EOAD), 23 LOAD APOE4 carriers (+LOAD) and 15 LOAD APOE4 non-carriers (-LOAD). Grey matter (GM) volume differences were analyzed using voxel-based morphometry in Papez circuit regions. Multiple regression analyses were performed to determine the relation between GM volume loss and cognition.ResultsSignificantly more mammillary body atrophy in +EOAD compared to -EOAD is reported. The medial temporal and posterior cingulate cortex showed less GM in +LOAD compared to -LOAD. Medial temporal GM volume loss was also found in +EOAD compared to -LOAD. With an exception for +EOAD, medial temporal GM was strongly associated with episodic memory in the three groups, whilst posterior cingulate cortex GM volume was more related with visuospatial abilities. Visuospatial abilities and episodic memory were also associated with the anterior thalamic nucleus in -LOAD.ConclusionsOur results show that the APOE genotype has a significant effect on GM integrity as a function of age of disease onset. Specifically, whilst LOAD APOE4 genotype is mostly associated with increased medial temporal and parietal atrophy compared to -LOAD, for EOAD APOE4 might have a more specific effect on subcortical (mammillary body) structures. The findings suggest that APOE genotype needs to be taken into account when classifying patients by age at onset.
| S-EPMC10108138 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Alzheimer's disease (AD), the most common form of dementia, is a chronic neurodegenerative disease. The HECT domain and ankyrin repeat containing E3 ubiquitin protein ligase 1 (HACE1) gene is expressed in human brain and may play a role in the pathogenesis of neurodegenerative disorders. Till now, no previous study has reported the association of the HACE1 gene with the risk and age at onset (AAO) of AD; while few studies have checked the proportional hazards assumption in the survival analysis of AAO of AD using Cox proportional hazards model. In this study, we examined the associations of 14 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the HACE1 gene with the risk and the AAO of AD using 791 AD patients and 782 controls. Multiple logistic regression model identified one SNP (rs9499937 with p = 1.8×10-3) to be associated with the risk of AD. For survival analysis of AAO, both classic Cox regression model and Bayesian survival analysis using the Cox proportional hazards model were applied to examine the association of each SNP with the AAO. The hazards ratio (HR) with its 95% confidence interval (CI) was estimated. Survival analysis using the classic Cox regression model showed that 4 SNPs were significantly associated with the AAO (top SNP rs9499937 with HR=1.33, 95%CI=1.13-1.57, p=5.0×10-4). Bayesian Cox regression model showed similar but a slightly stronger associations (top SNP rs9499937 with HR=1.34, 95%CI=1.11-1.55) compared with the classic Cox regression model. Using an independent family-based sample, one SNP rs9486018 was associated with the risk of AD (p=0.0323) and the T-T-G haplotype from rs9786015, rs9486018 and rs4079063 showed associations with both the risk and AAO of AD (p=2.27×10-3 and 0.0487, respectively). The findings of this study provide first evidence that several genetic variants in the HACE1 gene were associated with the risk and AAO of AD.
| S-EPMC5806706 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS), also known as Lou Gehrig's disease, is a rare disease with extreme between-subject variability, especially with respect to rate of disease progression. This makes modelling a subject's disease progression, which is measured by the ALS Functional Rating Scale (ALSFRS), very difficult. Consider the problem of predicting a subject's ALSFRS score at 9 or 12 months after a given time-point. METHODS:We obtained ALS subject data from the Pooled Resource Open-Access ALS Clinical Trials Database, a collection of data from various ALS clinical trials. Due to the typical linearity of the ALSFRS, we consider several Bayesian hierarchical linear models. These include a mixture model (to account for the two potential classes of "fast" and "slow" ALS progressors) as well as an onset-anchored model, in which an additional artificial data-point, using time of disease onset, is utilized to improve predictive performance. RESULTS:The onset-anchored model had a drastically reduced posterior predictive mean-square-error distributions, when compared to the Bayesian hierarchical linear model or the mixture model under a cross-validation approach. No covariates, other than time of disease onset, consistently improved predictive performance in either the Bayesian hierarchical linear model or the onset-anchored model. CONCLUSIONS:Augmenting patient data with an additional artificial data-point, or onset anchor, can drastically improve predictive modelling in ALS by reducing the variability of estimated parameters at the cost of a slight increase in bias. This onset-anchored model is extremely useful if predictions are desired directly after a single baseline measure (such as at the first day of a clinical trial), a feat that would be very difficult without the onset-anchor. This approach could be useful in modelling other diseases that have bounded progression scales (e.g. Parkinson's disease, Huntington's disease, or inclusion-body myositis). It is our hope that this model can be used by clinicians and statisticians to improve the efficacy of clinical trials and aid in finding treatments for ALS.
| S-EPMC5801819 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe aim of this study is to use classification methods to predict future onset of Alzheimer's disease in cognitively normal subjects through automated linguistic analysis.MethodsTo study linguistic performance as an early biomarker of AD, we performed predictive modeling of future diagnosis of AD from a cognitively normal baseline of Framingham Heart Study participants. The linguistic variables were derived from written responses to the cookie-theft picture-description task. We compared the predictive performance of linguistic variables with clinical and neuropsychological variables. The study included 703 samples from 270 participants out of which a dataset consisting of a single sample from 80 participants was held out for testing. Half of the participants in the test set developed AD symptoms before 85 years old, while the other half did not. All samples in the test set were collected during the cognitively normal period (before MCI). The mean time to diagnosis of mild AD was 7.59 years.FindingsSignificant predictive power was obtained, with AUC of 0.74 and accuracy of 0.70 when using linguistic variables. The linguistic variables most relevant for predicting onset of AD have been identified in the literature as associated with cognitive decline in dementia.InterpretationThe results suggest that language performance in naturalistic probes expose subtle early signs of progression to AD in advance of clinical diagnosis of impairment.FundingPfizer, Inc. provided funding to obtain data from the Framingham Heart Study Consortium, and to support the involvement of IBM Research in the initial phase of the study. The data used in this study was supported by Framingham Heart Study's National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute contract (N01-HC-25195), and by grants from the National Institute on Aging grants (R01-AG016495, R01-AG008122) and the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (R01-NS017950).
| S-EPMC7700896 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPolygenic hazard scores (PHS) estimate age-dependent genetic risk of late-onset Alzheimer's disease (AD), but there is limited information about the performance of PHS on real-world data where the population of interest differs from the model development population and part of the model genotypes are missing or need to be imputed.ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to estimate age-dependent risk of late-onset AD using polygenic predictors in Nordic populations.MethodsWe used Desikan PHS model, based on Cox proportional hazards assumption, to obtain age-dependent hazard scores for AD from individual genotypes in the Norwegian DemGene cohort (n = 2,772). We assessed the risk discrimination and calibration of Desikan model and extended it by adding new genotype markers (the Desikan Nordic model). Finally, we evaluated both Desikan and Desikan Nordic models in two independent Danish cohorts: The Copenhagen City Heart Study (CCHS) cohort (n = 7,643) and The Copenhagen General Population Study (CGPS) cohort (n = 10,886).ResultsWe showed a robust prediction efficiency of Desikan model in stratifying AD risk groups in Nordic populations, even when some of the model SNPs were missing or imputed. We attempted to improve Desikan PHS model by adding new SNPs to it, but we still achieved similar risk discrimination and calibration with the extended model.ConclusionPHS modeling has the potential to guide the timing of treatment initiation based on individual risk profiles and can help enrich clinical trials with people at high risk to AD in Nordic populations.
| S-EPMC10022308 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Presenilin-1 (PSEN1) mutations cause familial Alzheimer's disease (FAD) characterized by early age of onset (AoO). Examination of a large kindred harboring the PSEN1-E280A mutation reveals a range of AoO spanning 30 years. The pathophysiological drivers and clinical impact of AoO variation in this population are unknown. We examined brains of 23 patients focusing on generation and deposition of beta-amyloid (Aβ) and Tau pathology profile. In 14 patients distributed at the extremes of AoO, we performed whole-exome capture to identify genotype-phenotype correlations. We also studied kinome activity, proteasome activity, and protein polyubiquitination in brain tissue, associating it with Tau phosphorylation profiles. PSEN1-E280A patients showed a bimodal distribution for AoO. Besides AoO, there were no clinical differences between analyzed groups. Despite the effect of mutant PSEN1 on production of Aβ, there were no relevant differences between groups in generation and deposition of Aβ. However, differences were found in hyperphosphorylated Tau (pTau) pathology, where early onset patients showed severe pathology with diffuse aggregation pattern associated with increased activation of stress kinases. In contrast, late-onset patients showed lesser pTau pathology and a distinctive kinase activity. Furthermore, we identified new protective genetic variants affecting ubiquitin-proteasome function in early onset patients, resulting in higher ubiquitin-dependent degradation of differentially phosphorylated Tau. In PSEN1-E280A carriers, altered γ-secretase activity and resulting Aβ accumulation are prerequisites for early AoO. However, Tau hyperphosphorylation pattern, and its degradation by the proteasome, drastically influences disease onset in individuals with otherwise similar Aβ pathology, hinting toward a multifactorial model of disease for FAD. In sporadic AD (SAD), a wide range of heterogeneity, also influenced by Tau pathology, has been identified. Thus, Tau-induced heterogeneity is a common feature in both AD variants, suggesting that a multi-target therapeutic approach should be used to treat AD.
| S-EPMC7847436 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Despite an enormous research effort, most cases of late-onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD) still remain unexplained and the current biomedical science is still a long way from the ultimate goal of revealing clear risk factors that can help in the diagnosis, prevention and treatment of the disease. Current theories about the development of LOAD hinge on the premise that Alzheimer's arises mainly from heritable causes. Yet, the complex, non-Mendelian disease etiology suggests that an epigenetic component could be involved. Using MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry in post-mortem brain samples and lymphocytes, we have performed an analysis of DNA methylation across 12 potential Alzheimer's susceptibility loci. In the LOAD brain samples we identified a notably age-specific epigenetic drift, supporting a potential role of epigenetic effects in the development of the disease. Additionally, we found that some genes that participate in amyloid-beta processing (PSEN1, APOE) and methylation homeostasis (MTHFR, DNMT1) show a significant interindividual epigenetic variability, which may contribute to LOAD predisposition. The APOE gene was found to be of bimodal structure, with a hypomethylated CpG-poor promoter and a fully methylated 3'-CpG-island, that contains the sequences for the epsilon4-haplotype, which is the only undisputed genetic risk factor for LOAD. Aberrant epigenetic control in this CpG-island may contribute to LOAD pathology. We propose that epigenetic drift is likely to be a substantial mechanism predisposing individuals to LOAD and contributing to the course of disease.
| S-EPMC2444024 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Self-thinning is a dynamic equilibrium between forest growth and mortality at full site occupancy. Parameters of the self-thinning lines are often confounded by differences across various stand and site conditions. For overcoming the problem of hierarchical and repeated measures, we used hierarchical Bayesian method to estimate the self-thinning line. The results showed that the self-thinning line for Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.)Hook.) plantations was not sensitive to the initial planting density. The uncertainty of model predictions was mostly due to within-subject variability. The simulation precision of hierarchical Bayesian method was better than that of stochastic frontier function (SFF). Hierarchical Bayesian method provided a reasonable explanation of the impact of other variables (site quality, soil type, aspect, etc.) on self-thinning line, which gave us the posterior distribution of parameters of self-thinning line. The research of self-thinning relationship could be benefit from the use of hierarchical Bayesian method.
| S-EPMC4594911 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In proteomics, identification of proteins from complex mixtures of proteins extracted from biological samples is an important problem. Among the experimental technologies, Mass-Spectrometry (MS) is the most popular one. Protein identification from MS data typically relies on a "two-step" procedure of identifying the peptide first followed by the separate protein identification procedure next. In this setup, the interdependence of peptides and proteins are neglected resulting in relatively inaccurate protein identification. In this article, we propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based Bayesian hierarchical model, a first of its kind in protein identification, which integrates the two steps and performs joint analysis of proteins and peptides using posterior probabilities. We remove the assumption of independence of proteins by using clustering group priors to the proteins based on the assumption that proteins sharing the same biological pathway are likely to be present or absent together and are correlated. The complete conditionals of the proposed joint model being tractable, we propose and implement a Gibbs sampling scheme for full posterior inference that provides the estimation and statistical uncertainties of all relevant parameters. The model has better operational characteristics compared to two existing "one-step" procedures on a range of simulation settings as well as on two well-studied datasets.
| S-EPMC6519717 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Familial Alzheimer's disease (FAD), caused by mutations in Presenilin (PSEN1/2) and Amyloid Precursor Protein (APP) genes, is associated with an early age at onset (AAO) of symptoms. AAO is relatively consistent within families and between carriers of the same mutations, but differs markedly between individuals carrying different mutations. Gaining a mechanistic understanding of why certain mutations manifest several decades earlier than others is extremely important in elucidating the foundations of pathogenesis and AAO. Pathogenic mutations affect the protease (PSEN/γ-secretase) and the substrate (APP) that generate amyloid β (Aβ) peptides. Altered Aβ metabolism has long been associated with AD pathogenesis, with absolute or relative increases in Aβ42 levels most commonly implicated in the disease development. However, analyses addressing the relationships between these Aβ42 increments and AAO are inconsistent. Here, we investigated this central aspect of AD pathophysiology via comprehensive analysis of 25 FAD-linked Aβ profiles. Hypothesis- and data-driven approaches demonstrate linear correlations between mutation-driven alterations in Aβ profiles and AAO. In addition, our studies show that the Aβ (37 + 38 + 40) / (42 + 43) ratio offers predictive value in the assessment of 'unclear' PSEN1 variants. Of note, the analysis of PSEN1 variants presenting additionally with spastic paraparesis, indicates that a different mechanism underlies the aetiology of this distinct clinical phenotype. This study thus delivers valuable assays for fundamental, clinical and genetic research as well as supports therapeutic interventions aimed at shifting Aβ profiles towards shorter Aβ peptides.
| S-EPMC9156411 | biostudies-literature