Dataset Information

Disease burden of hepatitis C in the Austrian state of Tyrol - Epidemiological data and model analysis to achieve elimination by 2030.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) and 69th World Health Assembly approved the first global health sector strategy (GHSS) on viral hepatitis with the goal to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections worldwide. The aim is a 90% reduction of new infections and 65% reduction of HCV-related deaths by 2030.

Aim

This study reports on the epidemiology of HCV infections in the Austrian state of Tyrol (total population 750,000) and uses a predictive model to identify how the WHO strategy for elimination of HCV can be achieved.

Methods

We developed a regional disease burden model based on observed local diagnosis data from 2001 to 2016. Scenarios were developed to evaluate the impact of diagnosis and treatment on HCV-related outcomes (viremic prevalence, decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-related deaths) from 2015 through 2030.

Results

In the last 15 years, 1,721 patients living in Tyrol have been diagnosed with chronic HCV infection. When ageing, mortality and treatment were factored in, there were an estimated 2,043 viremic HCV infections in 2016, of which 1,136 cases had been diagnosed. A baseline model predicts a decrease of 588 HCV cases from 2015 to 2030, which would not translate into the significant reduction of infections needed to achieve WHO global health recommendations. A total of 1,843 infected individuals need to be identified and treated to achieve the WHO goals by 2030 (1,254 averted cases as compared to baseline model). Implementation of this strategy would avoid 523 new HCV infections and decreases HCV-related mortality by 73%.

Conclusion

HCV elimination and >65% reduction of associated mortality are possible for Tyrol, but requires a significant increase in new diagnoses and treatment rate. The model presented in this study could serve as an example for other regions to reliably predict regional disease burden and estimate how WHO goals can be met in the future.

SUBMITTER: Schaefer B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6042769 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Disease burden of hepatitis C in the Austrian state of Tyrol - Epidemiological data and model analysis to achieve elimination by 2030.

Schaefer Benedikt B Viveiros André A Al-Zoairy Ramona R Blach Sarah S Brandon Samantha S Razavi Homie H Dorn Livia L Finkenstedt Armin A Effenberger Maria M Graziadei Ivo I Sarcletti Mario M Tilg Herbert H Zoller Heinz H

PloS one 20180712 7

<h4>Background</h4>In 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) and 69th World Health Assembly approved the first global health sector strategy (GHSS) on viral hepatitis with the goal to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections worldwide. The aim is a 90% reduction of new infections and 65% reduction of HCV-related deaths by 2030.<h4>Aim</h4>This study reports on the epidemiology of HCV infections in the Austrian state of Tyrol (total population 750,000) and uses a predictive model to identi ...[more]

PMID: 30001427

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Project description:Evidence documenting the global burden of disease from viral hepatitis was essential for the World Health Assembly to endorse the first Global Health Sector Strategy (GHSS) on viral hepatitis in May 2016. The GHSS on viral hepatitis proposes to eliminate viral hepatitis as a public health threat by 2030. The GHSS on viral hepatitis is in line with targets for HIV infection and tuberculosis as part of the Sustainable Development Goals. As coordination between hepatitis and HIV programs aims to optimize the use of resources, guidance is also needed to align the strategic information components of the 2 programs. The World Health Organization monitoring and evaluation framework for viral hepatitis B and C follows an approach similar to the one of HIV, including components on the following: (1) context (prevalence of infection), (2) input, (3) output and outcome, including the cascade of prevention and treatment, and (4) impact (incidence and mortality). Data systems that are needed to inform this framework include (1) surveillance for acute hepatitis, chronic infections, and sequelae and (2) program data documenting prevention and treatment, which for the latter includes a database of patients. Overall, the commonalities between HIV and hepatitis at the strategic, policy, technical, and implementation levels justify coordination, strategic linkage, or integration, depending on the type of HIV and viral hepatitis epidemics. Strategic information is a critical area of this alignment under the principle of what gets measured gets done. It is facilitated because the monitoring and evaluation frameworks for HIV and viral hepatitis were constructed using a similar approach. However, for areas where elimination of viral hepatitis requires data that cannot be collected through the HIV program, collaborations are needed with immunization, communicable disease control, tuberculosis, and hepatology centers to ensure collection of information for the remaining indicators.

Project description:IntroductionAlthough hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection remains a major clinical, economic, and societal burden, the development of curative antiviral therapy may accelerate the path toward elimination. This analysis assessed the progress of United States (US) states towards achieving the World Health Organization's (WHO) 2030 HCV elimination targets for incidence, mortality, diagnosis, and treatment.MethodsA previously published Markov model was used to simulate HCV progression over time to estimate the path to HCV elimination in each state based on prevalence, annual treatment, and diagnosis inputs from two large US laboratory datasets from January 2013 to December 2017. State-specific fibrosis stage restrictions on treatment in 2017 were included. The model estimated the year individual states would meet the WHO targets for diagnosing 90% of the HCV-infected population, treating 80% of the eligible population, reducing new HCV infections by 80%, and reducing HCV-related deaths by 65%. The minimum number of annual treatments needed between 2020 and 2030 to achieve the WHO treatment target was also calculated.ResultsOverall, the USA is projected to achieve HCV elimination by 2037, with individual targets related to mortality, diagnosis, treatment, and incidence being achieved by 2020, 2027, 2033, and 2037, respectively. Three states (Connecticut, South Carolina, and Washington) are on track to meet all four elimination targets by 2030, and 18 states are not expected to meet these targets before 2040. The estimated annual number of treatments required during 2020-2030 nationally to reach the WHO treatment target is 173,514.ConclusionWith the exception of three states, the USA is not on target to meet the WHO 2030 elimination targets and 35% are off track by 10 years or more. Strategies must be implemented to reduce overall prevalence by preventing new infections, increasing rates of screening, improving linkage to care, and implementing unfettered access to curative therapy.

Project description:Importance:Achievement of the World Health Organization (WHO) target of eliminating hepatitis C virus (HCV) by 2030 will require an increase in key services, including harm reduction, HCV screening, and HCV treatment initiatives in member countries. These data are not available for Canada but are important for informing a national HCV elimination strategy. Objective:To use a decision analytical model to explore the association of different treatment strategies with HCV epidemiology and HCV-associated mortality in Canada and to assess the levels of service increase needed to meet the WHO elimination targets by 2030. Design, Setting, and Participants:Study participants in this decision analytical model included individuals with hepatitis C virus infection in Canada. Five HCV treatment scenarios (optimistic, very aggressive, aggressive, gradual decrease, and rapid decrease) were applied using a previously validated Markov-type mathematical model. The optimistic and very aggressive treatment scenarios modeled a sustained annual treatment of 10 200 persons and 14 000 persons, respectively, from 2018 to 2030. The aggressive, gradual decrease, and rapid decrease scenarios assessed decreases in treatment uptake from 14 000 persons to 10 000 persons per year, 12 000 persons to 8500 persons per year, and 12 000 persons to 4500 persons per year, respectively, between 2018 and 2030. Main Outcomes and Measures:Hepatitis C virus prevalence and HCV-associated health outcomes were assessed for each of the 5 treatment scenarios with the goal of identifying strategies to achieve HCV elimination by 2030. Results:An estimated mean 180 142 persons (95% CI, 122 786-196 862 persons) in Canada had chronic HCV infection at the end of 2017. The optimistic and gradual decrease scenarios estimated a decrease in HCV prevalence from 180 142 persons to 37 246 persons and 37 721 persons, respectively, by 2030. Relative to 2015, this decrease in HCV prevalence was associated with 74%, 69%, and 69% reductions in the prevalence of decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-associated mortality, respectively, leading to HCV elimination by 2030. More aggressive treatment uptake (very aggressive scenario) could result in goal achievement up to 3 years earlier than 2030, although a rapid decrease in the initiation of treatment (rapid decrease scenario) would preclude Canada from reaching the HCV elimination goal by 2030. Conclusions and Relevance:The study findings suggest that Canada could meet the WHO goals for HCV elimination by 2030 by sustaining the current national HCV treatment rate during the next decade. This target will not be achieved if treatment uptake is allowed to decrease rapidly.

Dataset Information

Disease burden of hepatitis C in the Austrian state of Tyrol - Epidemiological data and model analysis to achieve elimination by 2030.

Background

Aim

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Disease burden of hepatitis C in the Austrian state of Tyrol - Epidemiological data and model analysis to achieve elimination by 2030.

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