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Will More of the Same Achieve Malaria Elimination? Results from an Integrated Macroeconomic Epidemiological Demographic Model.

ABSTRACT: Historic levels of funding have reduced the global burden of malaria in recent years. Questions remain, however, as to whether scaling up interventions, in parallel with economic growth, has made malaria elimination more likely today than previously. The consequences of "trying but failing" to eliminate malaria are also uncertain. Reduced malaria exposure decreases the acquisition of semi-immunity during childhood, a necessary phase of the immunological transition that occurs on the pathway to malaria elimination. During this transitional period, the risk of malaria resurgence increases as proportionately more individuals across all age-groups are less able to manage infections by immune response alone. We developed a robust model that integrates the effects of malaria transmission, demography, and macroeconomics in the context of Plasmodium falciparum malaria within a hyperendemic environment. We analyzed the potential for existing interventions, alongside economic development, to achieve malaria elimination. Simulation results indicate that a 2% increase in future economic growth will increase the US$5.1 billion cumulative economic burden of malaria in Ghana to US$7.2 billion, although increasing regional insecticide-treated net coverage rates by 25% will lower malaria reproduction numbers by just 9%, reduce population-wide morbidity by -0.1%, and reduce prevalence from 54% to 46% by 2034. As scaling up current malaria control tools, combined with economic growth, will be insufficient to interrupt malaria transmission in Ghana, high levels of malaria control should be maintained and investment in research and development should be increased to maintain the gains of the past decade and to minimize the risk of resurgence, as transmission drops.

SUBMITTER: Smith RD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7646798 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Will More of the Same Achieve Malaria Elimination? Results from an Integrated Macroeconomic Epidemiological Demographic Model.

Smith Richard D RD Keogh-Brown Marcus R MR Chico R Matthew RM Bretscher Michael T MT Drakeley Chris C Jensen Henning Tarp HT

The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene 20201101 5

Historic levels of funding have reduced the global burden of malaria in recent years. Questions remain, however, as to whether scaling up interventions, in parallel with economic growth, has made malaria elimination more likely today than previously. The consequences of "trying but failing" to eliminate malaria are also uncertain. Reduced malaria exposure decreases the acquisition of semi-immunity during childhood, a necessary phase of the immunological transition that occurs on the pathway to m ...[more]

PMID: 32959760

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Project description:BackgroundMalaria causes more than 200 million cases of illness and 400,000 deaths each year across 90 countries. The World Health Organization (WHO) set a goal for 35 countries to eliminate malaria by 2030, with an intermediate milestone of 10 countries by 2020. In 2017, the WHO established the Elimination-2020 (E-2020) initiative to help countries achieve their malaria elimination goals and included 21 countries with the potential to eliminate malaria by 2020.MethodsAcross its three levels of activity (country, region and global), the WHO developed normative and implementation guidance on strategies and activities to eliminate malaria; provided technical support and subnational operational assistance; convened national malaria programme managers at three global meetings to share innovations and best practices; advised countries on strengthening their strategy to prevent re-establishment and preparing for WHO malaria certification; and contributed to maintaining momentum towards elimination through periodic evaluations, monitoring and oversight of progress in the E-2020 countries. Changes in the number of indigenous cases in E-2020 countries between 2016 and 2020 are reported, along with the number of countries that eliminated malaria and received WHO certification.ResultsThe median number of indigenous cases in the E-2020 countries declined from 165.5 (interquartile range [IQR] 14.25-563.75) in 2016 to 78 (IQR 0-356) in 2020; 12 (57%) countries reported reductions in indigenous cases over that period, of which 7 (33%) interrupted malaria transmission and maintained a malaria-free status through 2020 and 4 (19%) were certified malaria-free by the WHO. Two countries experienced outbreaks of malaria in 2020 and 2021 attributed, in part, to the COVID-19 pandemic.ConclusionsAlthough the E-2020 countries contributed to the achievement of the 2020 global elimination milestone, the initiative highlights the difficulties countries face to interrupt malaria transmission, even when numbers of cases are very low. The 2025 global elimination milestone is now approaching, and the lessons learned, experience gained, and updated guidance developed during the E-2020 initiative will help serve the countries seeking to eliminate malaria by 2025.

Project description:BackgroundSubstantial global progress in the control of malaria in recent years has led to increased commitment to its potential elimination. Whether this is possible in high transmission areas of sub-Saharan Africa remains unclear. Zanzibar represents a unique case study of such attempt, where modern tools and strategies for malaria treatment and vector control have been deployed since 2003.MethodsWe have studied temporal trends of comprehensive malariometric indices in two districts with over 100,000 inhabitants each. The analyses included triangulation of data from annual community-based cross-sectional surveys, health management information systems, vital registry and entomological sentinel surveys.ResultsThe interventions, with sustained high-community uptake, were temporally associated with a major malaria decline, most pronounced between 2004 and 2007 and followed by a sustained state of low transmission. In 2015, the Plasmodium falciparum community prevalence of 0.43% (95% CI 0.23-0.73) by microscopy or rapid diagnostic test represented 96% reduction compared with that in 2003. The P. falciparum and P. malariae prevalence by PCR was 1.8% (95% CI 1.3-2.3), and the annual P. falciparum incidence was estimated to 8 infections including 2.8 clinical episodes per 1000 inhabitants. The total parasite load decreased over 1000-fold (99.9%) between 2003 and 2015. The incidence of symptomatic malaria at health facilities decreased by 94% with a trend towards relatively higher incidence in age groups > 5 years, a more pronounced seasonality and with reported travel history to/from Tanzania mainland as a higher risk factor. All-cause mortality among children < 5 years decreased by 72% between 2002 and 2007 mainly following the introduction of artemisinin-based combination therapies whereas the main reduction in malaria incidence followed upon the vector control interventions from 2006. Human biting rates decreased by 98% with a major shift towards outdoor biting by Anopheles arabiensis.ConclusionsZanzibar provides new evidence of the feasibility of reaching uniquely significant and sustainable malaria reduction (pre-elimination) in a previously high endemic region in sub-Saharan Africa. The data highlight constraints of optimistic prognostic modelling studies. New challenges, mainly with outdoor transmission, a large asymptomatic parasite reservoir and imported infections, require novel tools and reoriented strategies to prevent a rebound effect and achieve elimination.

Project description:BackgroundTremendous progress has been made in the last ten years in reducing morbidity and mortality caused by malaria, in part because of increases in global funding for malaria control and elimination. Today, many countries are striving for malaria elimination. However, a major challenge is the neglect of cross-border and regional initiatives in malaria control and elimination. This paper seeks to better understand Global Fund support for multi-country initiatives.MethodsDocuments and proposals were extracted and reviewed from two main sources, the Global Fund website and Aidspan.org. Documents and reports from the Global Fund Technical Review Panel, Board, and Secretariat documents such as guidelines and proposal templates were reviewed to establish the type of policies enacted and guidance provided from the Global Fund on multi-country initiatives and applications. From reviewing this information, the researchers created 29 variables according to eight dimensions to use in a review of Round 10 applications. All Round 10 multi-country applications (for HIV, malaria and tuberculosis) and all malaria multi-country applications (6) from Rounds 1 - 10 were extracted from the Global Fund website. A blind review was conducted of Round 10 applications using the 29 variables as a framework, followed by a review of four of the six successful malaria multi-country grant applications from Rounds 1 - 10.FindingsDuring Rounds 3 - 10 of the Global Fund, only 5.8% of grants submitted were for multi-country initiatives. Out of 83 multi-country proposals submitted, 25.3% were approved by the Technical Review Panel (TRP) for funding, compared to 44.9% of single-country applications. The majority of approved multi-country applications were for HIV (76.2%), followed by malaria (19.0%), then tuberculosis (4.8%). TRP recommendations resulted in improvements to application forms, although guidance was generally vague. The in-depth review of Round 10 multi-country proposals showed that applicants described their projects in one of two ways: a regional 'network approach' by which benefits are derived from economies of scale or from enhanced opportunities for mutual support and learning or the development of common policies and approaches; or a 'cross-border' approach for enabling activities to be more effectively delivered towards border-crossing populations or vectors. In Round 10, only those with a 'network approach' were recommended for funding. The Global Fund has only ever approved six malaria multi-country applications. Four approved applications stated strong arguments for a multi-country initiative, combining both 'cross-border' and 'network' approaches.ConclusionWith the cancellation of Round 11 and the proposal that the Global Fund adopt a more targeted and strategic approach to funding, the time is opportune for the Global Fund to develop a clear consensus about the key factors and criteria for funding malaria specific multi-country initiatives. This study found that currently there was a lack of guidance on the key features that a successful multi-country proposal needs to be approved and that applications directed towards the 'network' approach were most successful in Round 10. This type of multi-country proposal may favour other diseases such as HIV, whereas the need for malaria control and elimination is different, focusing on cross-border coordination and delivery of interventions to specific groups. The Global Fund should seek to address these issues and give better guidance to countries and regions and investigate disease-specific calls for multi-country and regional applications.

Project description:ObjectivesA Demographic and Health Platform was established in Magude in 2015, prior to the deployment of a project aiming to evaluate the feasibility of malaria elimination in southern Mozambique, named the Magude project. This platform aimed to inform the design, implementation and evaluation of the Magude project, through the identification of households and population; and the collection of demographic, health and malaria information.SettingMagude is a rural district of southern Mozambique which borders South Africa. It has nine peripheral health facilities and one referral health centre with an inpatient ward.InterventionA baseline census enumerated and geolocated all the households, and their resident and non-resident members, collecting demographic and socio-economic information, and data on the coverage and usage of malaria control tools. Inpatient and outpatient data during the 5 years (2010 to 2014) before the survey were obtained from the district health authorities. The demographic platform was updated in 2016.ResultsThe baseline census conducted in 2015 reported 48 448 (92.1%) residents and 4133 (7.9%) non-residents, and 10 965 households. Magude's population is predominantly young, half of the population has no formal education and the main economic activities are agriculture and fishing. Houses are mainly built with traditional non-durable materials and have poor sanitation facilities. Between 2010 and 2014, malaria was the most common cause of all-age inpatient discharges (representing 20% to 40% of all discharges), followed by HIV (12% to 22%) and anaemia (12% to 15%). In early 2015, all-age bed-net usage was between 21.8% and 27.1% and the reported coverage of indoor residual spraying varied across the district between 30.7% and 79%.ConclusionThis study revealed that Magude has limited socio-economic conditions, poor access to healthcare services and low coverage of malaria vector control interventions. Thus, Magude represented an area where it is most pressing to demonstrate the feasibility of malaria elimination.Trial registration numberNCT02914145; Pre-results.

Project description:BackgroundThe Malaria Elimination Demonstration Project (MEDP) maintained a workforce of 235 Village Malaria Workers (VMWs) and 25 Malaria Field Coordinators (MFCs) to conduct disease surveillance, case management, IEC/BCC activities, capacity building, and monitoring of vector control activities in 1233 villages of Mandla, a high malaria endemic district of Madhya Pradesh in central India.MethodsThe induction training was conducted for 3 days on malaria diagnosis, treatment, prevention, and ethics. All trainings were assessed using a pre and post-training assessment questionnaire, with 70% marks as qualifying threshold. The questionnaire was divided into three thematic areas viz. general knowledge related to malaria (KAP), diagnosis and treatment (DXRX), and vector control (PVC).ResultsIn 2017, the project trained 330 candidates, followed by 243 and 247 candidates in 2018 and 2019, respectively. 94.3% candidates passed after a single training session. Almost all (95%) candidates showed improvement in knowledge after the training with 4% showing no effect and 1% showing deterioration. Progressive improvement in scores of 2017 cohort was seen along with significant improvement in performance of candidates in 2019 after the introduction of systematic monitoring and 'shadowing' training exercises.ConclusionThe project has successfully demonstrated the value of recruitment of workers from the study area, outcome of training, and performance evaluation of field staff in malaria elimination programme. This careful strategy of recruitment and training resulted in a work-force that was capable of independently conducting surveillance, case management, vector control, and Information Education Communication/Behaviour Change Communication (IEC/BCC). The learnings of this study, including the training modules and monitoring processes, can be used to train the health delivery staff for achieving national goal for malaria elimination by 2030. Similar training and monitoring programmes could also be used for other public health delivery programmes.

Dataset Information

Will More of the Same Achieve Malaria Elimination? Results from an Integrated Macroeconomic Epidemiological Demographic Model.

Publications

Will More of the Same Achieve Malaria Elimination? Results from an Integrated Macroeconomic Epidemiological Demographic Model.

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