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A framework for linking population model development with ecological risk assessment objectives.

ABSTRACT: The value of models that link organism-level impacts to the responses of a population in ecological risk assessments (ERAs) has been demonstrated extensively over the past few decades. There is little debate about the utility of these models to translate multiple organism-level endpoints into a holistic interpretation of effect to the population; however, there continues to be a struggle for actual application of these models as a common practice in ERA. Although general frameworks for developing models for ERA have been proposed, there is limited guidance on when models should be used, in what form, and how to interpret model output to inform the risk manager's decision. We propose a framework for developing and applying population models in regulatory decision making that focuses on trade-offs of generality, realism, and precision for both ERAs and models. We approach the framework development from the perspective of regulators aimed at defining the needs of specific models commensurate with the assessment objective. We explore why models are not widely used by comparing their requirements and limitations with the needs of regulators. Using a series of case studies under specific regulatory frameworks, we classify ERA objectives by trade-offs of generality, realism, and precision and demonstrate how the output of population models developed with these same trade-offs informs the ERA objective. We examine attributes for both assessments and models that aid in the discussion of these trade-offs. The proposed framework will assist risk assessors and managers to identify models of appropriate complexity and to understand the utility and limitations of a model's output and associated uncertainty in the context of their assessment goals. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:369-380. Published 2017. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

SUBMITTER: Raimondo S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6052766 | biostudies-literature | 2018 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A framework for linking population model development with ecological risk assessment objectives.

Raimondo Sandy S Etterson Matthew M Pollesch Nathan N Garber Kristina K Kanarek Andrew A Lehmann Wade W Awkerman Jill J

Integrated environmental assessment and management 20180219 3

The value of models that link organism-level impacts to the responses of a population in ecological risk assessments (ERAs) has been demonstrated extensively over the past few decades. There is little debate about the utility of these models to translate multiple organism-level endpoints into a holistic interpretation of effect to the population; however, there continues to be a struggle for actual application of these models as a common practice in ERA. Although general frameworks for developin ...[more]

PMID: 29271573

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Project description:The assimilation of population models into ecological risk assessment (ERA) has been hindered by their range of complexity, uncertainty, resource investment, and data availability. Likewise, ensuring that the models address risk assessment objectives has been challenging. Recent research efforts have begun to tackle these challenges by creating an integrated modeling framework and decision guide to aid the development of population models with respect to ERA objectives and data availability. In the framework, the trade-offs associated with the generality, realism, and precision of an assessment are used to guide the development of a population model commensurate with the protection goal. The decision guide provides risk assessors with a stepwise process to assist them in developing a conceptual model that is appropriate for the assessment objective and available data. We have merged the decision guide and modeling framework into a comprehensive approach, Population modeling Guidance, Use, Interpretation, and Development for Ecological risk assessment (Pop-GUIDE), for the development of population models for ERA that is applicable across regulatory statutes and assessment objectives. In Phase 1 of Pop-GUIDE, assessors are guided through the trade-offs of ERA generality, realism, and precision, which are translated into model objectives. In Phase 2, available data are assimilated and characterized as general, realistic, and/or precise. Phase 3 provides a series of dichotomous questions to guide development of a conceptual model that matches the complexity and uncertainty appropriate for the assessment that is in concordance with the available data. This phase guides model developers and users to ensure consistency and transparency of the modeling process. We introduce Pop-GUIDE as the most comprehensive guidance for population model development provided to date and demonstrate its use through case studies using fish as an example taxon and the US Federal Insecticide Fungicide and Rodenticide Act and Endangered Species Act as example regulatory statutes. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:767-784. © 2020 SETAC. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

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Project description:Nickel laterite ore deposits are becoming increasingly important sources of Ni for the global marketplace and are found mainly in tropical and subtropical regions, including Indonesia, the Philippines, Papua New Guinea, Cuba, and New Caledonia. There are few legislatively derived standards or guidelines for the protection of aquatic life for Ni in many of these tropical regions, and bioavailability-based environmental risk assessment (ERA) approaches for metals have mainly been developed and tested in temperate regions, such as the United States and Europe. This paper reports on a multi-institutional, 5-y testing program to evaluate Ni exposure, effects, and risk characterization in the Southeast Asia and Melanesia (SEAM) region, which includes New Caledonia, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, and Indonesia. Further, we have developed an approach to determine if the individual components of classical ERA, including effects assessments, exposure assessments, and risk characterization methodologies (which include bioavailability normalization), are applicable in this region. A main conclusion of this research program is that although ecosystems and exposures may be different in tropical systems, ERA paradigms are constant. A large chronic ecotoxicity data set for Ni is now available for tropical species, and the data developed suggest that tropical ecosystems are not uniquely sensitive to Ni exposure; hence, scientific support exists for combining tropical and temperate data sets to develop tropical environmental quality standards (EQSs). The generic tropical database and tropical exposure scenarios generated can be used as a starting point to examine the unique biotic and abiotic characteristics of specific tropical ecosystems in the SEAM region. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:802-813. © 2021 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

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A framework for linking population model development with ecological risk assessment objectives.

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A framework for linking population model development with ecological risk assessment objectives.

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