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Pop-guide: Population modeling guidance, use, interpretation, and development for ecological risk assessment.

ABSTRACT: The assimilation of population models into ecological risk assessment (ERA) has been hindered by their range of complexity, uncertainty, resource investment, and data availability. Likewise, ensuring that the models address risk assessment objectives has been challenging. Recent research efforts have begun to tackle these challenges by creating an integrated modeling framework and decision guide to aid the development of population models with respect to ERA objectives and data availability. In the framework, the trade-offs associated with the generality, realism, and precision of an assessment are used to guide the development of a population model commensurate with the protection goal. The decision guide provides risk assessors with a stepwise process to assist them in developing a conceptual model that is appropriate for the assessment objective and available data. We have merged the decision guide and modeling framework into a comprehensive approach, Population modeling Guidance, Use, Interpretation, and Development for Ecological risk assessment (Pop-GUIDE), for the development of population models for ERA that is applicable across regulatory statutes and assessment objectives. In Phase 1 of Pop-GUIDE, assessors are guided through the trade-offs of ERA generality, realism, and precision, which are translated into model objectives. In Phase 2, available data are assimilated and characterized as general, realistic, and/or precise. Phase 3 provides a series of dichotomous questions to guide development of a conceptual model that matches the complexity and uncertainty appropriate for the assessment that is in concordance with the available data. This phase guides model developers and users to ensure consistency and transparency of the modeling process. We introduce Pop-GUIDE as the most comprehensive guidance for population model development provided to date and demonstrate its use through case studies using fish as an example taxon and the US Federal Insecticide Fungicide and Rodenticide Act and Endangered Species Act as example regulatory statutes. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:767-784. © 2020 SETAC. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

SUBMITTER: Raimondo S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8751981 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Hummingbirds are charismatic fauna that provide important pollination services, including in the continental US, where 15 species regularly breed. Compared to other birds in North America, hummingbirds (family Trochilidae) have a unique exposure route to pesticides because they forage on nectar. Therefore, hummingbirds may be exposed to systemic pesticides borne in nectar. They also may be particularly vulnerable to pesticide exposure due to their small size and extreme metabolic demands. We review relevant factors including hummingbird life history, nectar residue uptake, and avian bioenergetic considerations with the goal of clearly identifying and articulating the specific modeling challenges that must be overcome to develop and/or adapt existing modeling approaches. To help evaluate these factors, we developed a dataset for ruby-throated hummingbirds (Archilochus colubris) and other avian species potentially exposed to pesticides. We used the systemic neonicotinoid pesticide imidacloprid as an illustration and compared results to five other common current use pesticides. We use the structure of Pop-GUIDE to provide a conceptual modeling framework for implementation of MCnest and to compile parameter values and relevant algorithms to predict the effects of pesticide exposure on avian pollinators. Conservative screening assessments suggest the potential for adverse effects from imidacloprid, as do more refined assessments, though many important limitations and uncertainties remain. Our review found many areas in which current USEPA avian models must be improved in order to conduct a full higher-tier risk assessment for avian pollinators exposed to neonicotinoid insecticides, including addition of models suitable for soil and seed treatments within the MCnest environment, ability to include empirical residue data in both nectar and invertebrates rather than relying on existing nomograms, expansion of MCnest to a full annual cycle, and increased representation of spatial heterogeneity. Although this work focuses on hummingbirds, the methods and recommendations may apply more widely to other vertebrate pollinators.

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Pop-guide: Population modeling guidance, use, interpretation, and development for ecological risk assessment.

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