Dataset Information

Past and potential future population dynamics of three grouse species using ecological and whole genome coalescent modeling.

ABSTRACT: Studying demographic history of species provides insight into how the past has shaped the current levels of overall biodiversity and genetic composition of species, but also how these species may react to future perturbations. Here we investigated the demographic history of the willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus), rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta), and black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) through the Late Pleistocene using two complementary methods and whole genome data. Species distribution modeling (SDM) allowed us to estimate the total range size during the Last Interglacial (LIG) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) as well as to indicate potential population subdivisions. Pairwise Sequentially Markovian Coalescent (PSMC) allowed us to assess fluctuations in effective population size across the same period. Additionally, we used SDM to forecast the effect of future climate change on the three species over the next 50 years. We found that SDM predicts the largest range size for the cold-adapted willow grouse and rock ptarmigan during the LGM. PSMC captured intraspecific population dynamics within the last glacial period, such that the willow grouse and rock ptarmigan showed multiple bottlenecks signifying recolonization events following the termination of the LGM. We also see signals of population subdivision during the last glacial period in the black grouse, but more data are needed to strengthen this hypothesis. All three species are likely to experience range contractions under future warming, with the strongest effect on willow grouse and rock ptarmigan due to their limited potential for northward expansion. Overall, by combining these two modeling approaches, we have provided a multifaceted examination of the biogeography of these species and how they have responded to climate change in the past. These results help us understand how cold-adapted species may respond to future climate changes.

SUBMITTER: Kozma R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6053575 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Past and potential future population dynamics of three grouse species using ecological and whole genome coalescent modeling.

Kozma Radoslav R Lillie Mette M Benito Blas M BM Svenning Jens-Christian JC Höglund Jacob J

Ecology and evolution 20180529 13

Studying demographic history of species provides insight into how the past has shaped the current levels of overall biodiversity and genetic composition of species, but also how these species may react to future perturbations. Here we investigated the demographic history of the willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus), rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta), and black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) through the Late Pleistocene using two complementary methods and whole genome data. Species distributio ...[more]

PMID: 30038766

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Project description:BackgroundThe Quaternary had worldwide consequences in forming the contemporary diversity of many populations, species and communities, which is characterized by marked climatic oscillations between glacial and interglacial periods. The origin and evolution of biodiversity in mountainous areas are highly dependent on historical orogenesis and associated climatic changes. The Chinese grouse Tetrastes sewerzowi is a forest-dwelling species endemic to the mountains to the east of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which has been listed as Near Threatened with a decreasing trend by the IUCN because of ongoing deforestation and fragmentation of coniferous forests. It is important to place current population status into a broader ecological and evolutionary context to understand their demographic history.ResultsAnalyses of the Chinese Grouse genome revealed fluctuations throughout the Pleistocene in effective population size. Populations decreased during early to middle Pleistocene but showed an expansion during late Pleistocene which was then followed by a sharp decline during the last glacial maximum (LGM). Ecological niche modeling indicated that a suitable habitat shift between high altitude regions to low altitude regions was due to a changing climate. This result parallels patterns of population size change in Chinese Grouse estimated from PSMC modelling, which suggested an expansion in population size from the last interglacial period (LIG) and then a peak and a bottleneck occurring at the last glacial maximum (LGM). Furthermore, the present-day distribution of Chinese Grouse is greatly reduced and fragmented. It will likely become even more fragmented in the future since coniferous forest cover is threatened in the region of their distribution and the availability of such habitat restricts their ecological niche.ConclusionsThe Chinese Grouse have experienced substantial population size changes from the beginning to the LIG and reached a peak before the LGM. A sharp decrease and bottleneck occurred during the LGM, when the coniferous forests were subjected to extensive loss. The results inferred from the whole genome sequencing and species distribution models both support historical population fluctuations. The distribution of the Chinese Grouse is strongly dependent on the coniferous forest cover. To protect the fragmented coniferous forests is an essential action to protect the Chinese Grouse.

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Dataset Information

Past and potential future population dynamics of three grouse species using ecological and whole genome coalescent modeling.

Publications

Past and potential future population dynamics of three grouse species using ecological and whole genome coalescent modeling.

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