Dataset Information

Surrogate End Points for Overall Survival in Loco-Regionally Advanced Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: An Individual Patient Data Meta-analysis.

ABSTRACT: Our objective was to evaluate progression-free survival (PFS) and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) as surrogate end points for overall survival (OS) in randomized trials of chemotherapy in loco-regionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinomas (NPCs).Individual patient data were obtained from 19 trials of the updated Meta-Analysis of Chemotherapy in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma (MAC-NPC) plus one additional trial (total = 5144 patients). Surrogacy was evaluated at the individual level using a rank correlation coefficient ? and at the trial level using a correlation coefficient R2 between treatment effects on the surrogate end point and OS. A sensitivity analysis was performed with two-year PFS/DMFS and five-year OS.PFS was strongly correlated with OS at the individual level (? = 0.93, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.93 to 0.94) and at the trial level (R2 = 0.95, 95% CI?=?0.47 to 1.00). For DMFS, too, the individual-level correlation with OS was strong (? = 0.98, 95% CI?=?0.98 to 0.98); at trial level, the correlation was high but the regression adjusted for measurement error could not be computed (unadjusted R2 = 0.96, 95% CI?=?0.94 to 0.99). In the sensitivity analysis, two-year PFS was highly correlated with five-year OS at the individual level (? = 0.89, 95% CI?=?0.88 to 0.90) and at the trial level (R2 = 0.85, 95% CI?=?0.46 to 1.00); two-year DMFS was highly correlated with five-year OS at the individual level (? = 0.95, 95% CI?=?0.94 to 0.95) and at the trial level (R2 = 0.78, 95% CI?=?0.33 to 1.00).PFS and DMFS are valid surrogate end points for OS to assess treatment effect of chemotherapy in loco-regionally advanced NPC, while PFS can be measured earlier.

SUBMITTER: Rotolo F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6059121 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Surrogate End Points for Overall Survival in Loco-Regionally Advanced Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: An Individual Patient Data Meta-analysis.

Rotolo Federico F Pignon Jean-Pierre JP Bourhis Jean J Marguet Sophie S Leclercq Julie J Tong Ng Wai W Ma Jun J Chan Anthony T C AT Huang Pei-Yu PY Zhu Guopei G Chua Daniel T T DT Chen Yong Y Mai Hai-Qiang HQ Kwong Dora L W DL Soong Yoke Lim YL Moon James J Tung Yuk Y Chi Kwan-Hwa KH Fountzilas George G Zhang Li L Hui Edwin Pun EP Lee Anne W M AW Blanchard Pierre P Michiels Stefan S

Journal of the National Cancer Institute 20170401 4

<h4>Background</h4>Our objective was to evaluate progression-free survival (PFS) and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) as surrogate end points for overall survival (OS) in randomized trials of chemotherapy in loco-regionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinomas (NPCs).<h4>Methods</h4>Individual patient data were obtained from 19 trials of the updated Meta-Analysis of Chemotherapy in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma (MAC-NPC) plus one additional trial (total = 5144 patients). Surrogacy was evaluated ...[more]

PMID: 27927756

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Serum miRNA was once found as potential disease survival index,thus we investigated the role of miRNA in predicting prognosis in loco-regionally advanced NPC patients treated with CCRT. METHODS:This study included two phases: (i) We enrolled 3 NPC patients with recurrence or distant metastasis (experimental group, EG) and 3 NPC patients in clinical remission (control group, CG),who were treated with CCRT within 5?years. The paired serum was collected before and after treatment and biomarkers were discovered by LNA-TaqMan Human MicroRNA Arrays. (ii) we used the bioinformatic analysis, marker selection and an independent validation by qRT-PCR to analyse the serums of 29 NPC patients with recurrent disease or distant metastasis and 19 NPC patients in clinical remission treated with CCRT. Using the Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank test and Cox regression model to estimate the accuracy of the miRNAs to predict PFS and OS, and identified factors significantly associated with prognosis, respectively. RESULTS:Using fold change?2.0 or???0.5 and p ??0.05 as cutoff levels, we identified 1 up-regulated and 6 down-regulated miRNAs, 1 up-regulated and 9 down-regulated miRNAs in EG versus CG before and after CCRT, respectively. After these down-regulated miRNAs were dealed with bioinformatics analysis and normalization, only 5 different miRNAs were significantly reduced, which there were no significant difference in the expression of miRNA-26b, miRNA-29a and miRNA-125b before CCRT, and the expression of miRNA-143 and miRNA-29b after CCRT in the serum samples of 48 NPC patients. Based on this, we calculated a risk score with the expression of miRNA-26b?miRNA-29a?miRNA-125b?miRNA-29b?miRNA-143 and then classified patients as high or low risk group. Cox regression model suggested that combining miRNA-29a and miRNA-125b before CCRT with miRNA-26b after CCRT was independent prognostic factors for PFS (HR?=?3.149, 95%CI:1.018-9.115, p =?0.034), whereas combining the former two is independent for OS (HR?=?5.146, 95%CI:1.674-15.817, p =?0.04). CONCLUSIONS:For loco-regionally advanced NPC patients treated with CCRT, especially high-risk patients- serum miRNAs, such as miRNA-29a, miRNA-125b and miRNA-26b etc., play an important role in predicting prognosis factors of PFS and OS, which will contribute to the strategic direction for future research.

Project description:BackgroundTo analysis the clinical outcomes of concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) alone based on 10-year results for loco-regionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (LANPC), so as to provide evidence for individualized treatment strategy and designing appropriate clinical trial for different risk LANPC patients.MethodsConsecutive patients with stage III-IVa (AJCC/UICC 8th) were enrolled in this study. All patients received radical intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) and concurrent cisplatin chemotherapy (CDDP). The hazard ratios (HRs) of death risk in patients with T3N0 was used as baseline, relative HRs were calculated by a Cox proportional hazard model to classify different death risk patients. Survival curves for the time-to-event endpoints were analyzed by the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank test. All statistical tests were conducted at a two-sided level of significance of 0.05.ResultsA total of 456 eligible patients were included. With 12-year median follow-up, 10-year overall survival (OS) was 76%. 10-year loco-regionally failure-free survival (LR-FFS), distant failure-free survival (D-FFS) and failure-free survival (FFS) were 72%, 73% and 70%, respectively. Based on the relative hazard ratios (HRs) of death risk, LANPC patients were classified into 3 subgroups, low-risk group (T1-2N2 and T3N0-1) contained 244 patients with HR < 2; medium-risk group (T3N2 and T4N0-1) contained 140 patients with HR of 2 - 5; high-risk group (T4N2 and T1-4N3) contained 72 patients with HR > 5. The 10-year OS for patients in low-, medium-, and high-risk group were 86%, 71% and 52%, respectively. Significantly differences of OS rates were found between each of the two groups (low-risk group vs. medium-risk group, P < 0.001; low-risk group vs. high-risk group, P < 0.001; and medium-risk group vs. high-risk group, P = 0.002, respectively). Grade 3-4 late toxicities included deafness/otitis (9%), xerostomia (4%), temporal lobe injury (5%), cranial neuropathy (4%), peripheral neuropathy (2%), soft tissue damage (2%) and trismus (1%).ConclusionsOur classification criteria demonstrated that significant heterogeneity in death risk among TN substages for LANPC patients. IMRT plus CDDP alone maybe suitable for low-risk LANPC (T1-2N2 or T3N0-1), but not for medium- and high-risk patients. These prognostic groupings provide a practicable anatomic foundation to guide individualized treatment and select optimal targeting in the future clinical trials.

Project description:Importance:Surrogate end points in oncology trade the advantage of reducing the time needed to conduct clinical trials for the disadvantage of greater uncertainty regarding the treatment effect on patient-centered end points, such as overall survival (OS) and quality of life. Objective:To quantify the amount of time saved through the acceptance of surrogate end points, including response rate (RR) and progression-free survival (PFS). Design, Setting, and Participants:This retrospective study of US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) oncology approvals and their drug registration trials based on actual publication analyzed the original and updated clinical trials data that led to FDA-approved drug indications in oncology from 2006 to 2017 by using existing publications, conference abstracts, and package inserts from the FDA. Data related to cancer type, line of therapy (first-line, second-line, and third- or later-line treatment of advanced or metastatic disease), FDA approval type, end point basis for approval (RR, PFS, or OS/quality of life), sample size, accrual rate, and drug RR were extracted by March 23, 2018. All data were analyzed by July 13, 2018. Main Outcomes and Measures:The main outcome was the study duration needed to complete the primary end point analysis used for each drug indication approval. This was estimated from reported enrollment dates, analysis cutoff dates, time to response, median duration of response, median PFS, and median OS. Results:In total, 188 distinct indications among 107 cancer drugs were identified. The RR was more often used for FDA approval in subsequent lines of therapy (17 of 71 drug indications [24%] in first-line therapy vs 34 of 77 drug indications [44%] in second-line therapy vs 19 of 24 drug indications [79%] in third- or later-line therapy, P < .001). Study duration for PFS (median, 31 [range, 10-104] months) was similar to that for OS (median, 33 [range, 12-117] months; P = .31), whereas study duration for RR (median, 25 [range, 11-54] months) was shorter than that for OS (P = .001). In multivariate analysis, compared with using OS, use of PFS as the end point was associated with study durations that were shorter by a mean of 11 months (95% CI, 5-17 months), and the use of RR as the end point was associated with study durations that were shorter by a mean of 19 months (95% CI, 13-25 months). Conclusions and Relevance:From the findings of this study, an estimated 11 months appeared to be needed (ie, approximately 12% longer in the drug development cycle) to assess the OS benefit of a cancer drug. This study's findings suggest that this must be weighed against the downside of increased uncertainty of clinical benefit arising from using surrogate end points.

Project description:ImportanceContemporary observational cancer research requires associating genomic biomarkers with reproducible end points; overall survival (OS) is a key end point, but interpretation can be challenging when multiple lines of therapy and prolonged survival are common. Progression-free survival (PFS), time to treatment discontinuation (TTD), and time to next treatment (TTNT) are alternative end points, but their utility as surrogates for OS in real-world clinicogenomic data sets has not been well characterized.ObjectiveTo measure correlations between candidate surrogate end points and OS in a multi-institutional clinicogenomic data set.Design, setting, and participantsA retrospective cohort study was conducted of patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) or colorectal cancer (CRC) whose tumors were genotyped at 4 academic centers from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2017, and who initiated systemic therapy for advanced disease. Patients were followed up through August 31, 2020 (NSCLC), and October 31, 2020 (CRC). Statistical analyses were conducted on January 5, 2021.ExposuresCandidate surrogate end points included TTD; TTNT; PFS based on imaging reports only; PFS based on medical oncologist ascertainment only; PFS based on either imaging or medical oncologist ascertainment, whichever came first; and PFS defined by a requirement that both imaging and medical oncologist ascertainment have indicated progression.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was the correlation between candidate surrogate end points and OS.ResultsThere were 1161 patients with NSCLC (648 women [55.8%]; mean [SD] age, 63 [11] years) and 1150 with CRC (647 men [56.3%]; mean [SD] age, 54 [12] years) identified for analysis. Progression-free survival based on both imaging and medical oncologist documentation was most correlated with OS (NSCLC: ρ = 0.76; 95% CI, 0.73-0.79; CRC: ρ = 0.73; 95% CI, 0.69-0.75). Time to treatment discontinuation was least associated with OS (NSCLC: ρ = 0.45; 95% CI, 0.40-0.50; CRC: ρ = 0.13; 95% CI, 0.06-0.19). Time to next treatment was modestly associated with OS (NSCLC: ρ = 0.60; 0.55-0.64; CRC: ρ = 0.39; 95% CI, 0.32-0.46).Conclusions and relevanceThis cohort study suggests that PFS based on both a radiologist and a treating oncologist determining that a progression event has occurred was the surrogate end point most highly correlated with OS for analysis of observational clinicogenomic data.

Dataset Information

Surrogate End Points for Overall Survival in Loco-Regionally Advanced Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: An Individual Patient Data Meta-analysis.

Publications

Surrogate End Points for Overall Survival in Loco-Regionally Advanced Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: An Individual Patient Data Meta-analysis.

Similar Datasets

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