Potential surrogate endpoints for overall survival in locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma: an analysis of a phase III randomized trial.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Chen YP
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4518214 | biostudies-other | 2015
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Project description:BackgroundWe aimed to assess whether the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST)-based objective response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR) and progression-free survival (PFS) could serve as surrogate endpoints for overall survival (OS) in immune-oncology (IO) trials of advanced gastro-esophageal (GE) carcinoma.MethodsRandomized controlled trials (RCTs) of IO that reported RECIST-based endpoints and OS in advanced GE carcinoma were screened. Surrogacy of endpoints for OS was assessed based on the correlation between endpoints with OS (arm-level), and between treatment effects on endpoints (trial-level). The correlations were quantified by Pearson correlation coefficient (R). Leave-one-out cross-validation was used to assess the prediction accuracy of surrogate model.ResultsSeventeen RCTs (9,657 subjects) with 20 comparisons were included. The correlations between DCR and OS were not strong at arm- (R = 0.80) and trial-levels (R = 0.45), but strong correlations between ORR (R = 0.91), PFS (R = 0.89) and OS at arm-level were observed. Treatment effect on ORR and PFS (both R = 0.71) was moderately correlated with treatment effect on OS. Leave-one-out cross-validation approach further validated the surrogacy of PFS. Our analysis showed that 3-month PFS could reliably predict 6-month OS, 6-month PFS could reliably predict 12-month OS, and 12-month PFS could reliably predict 18-month OS. The conservative minimum threshold effect of HRPFS was 0.73.ConclusionsPFS may be the appropriate surrogate for OS in IO trials of GE carcinoma. A conservative minimum threshold effect of HRPFS ≤ 0.73 has the potential to predict a significant improvement in OS.
| S-EPMC9239497 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWe assessed the surrogacy of objective response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR) and progression-free survival (PFS) for overall survival (OS) in anti-PD-1/PD-L1 trials of metastatic melanoma through a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs).MethodsPubMed and EMBASE were searched for phase II/III RCTs till June 2019 investigating anti-PD-1/PD-L1 agents. Treatment effect (hazard ratio or odds ratio) on potential surrogates (ORR/DCR/PFS) and OS were collected. At trial level, we assessed the correlation between treatment effect on potential surrogates and OS, weighted by sample size, fixed and random effect models, and calculated the surrogate threshold effect (STE). Sensitivity analyses and leave-one-out cross-validation approach were performed to evaluate the robustness of our findings.ResultsWe included 8 RCTs (4110 patients; 11 comparisons). We did not identify strong correlations between ORR [coefficient of determination (R 2): 0.09-0.25], DCR (0.41-0.57) and OS. However, we noted a strong correlation between PFS and OS, with R 2 of 0.82 in sample size, 0.75 in fixed effect and 0.72 in random effect model weighting, the robustness of which was further verified by leave-one-out cross-validation approach. Sensitivity analyses with restriction to trials with less than 50% crossover, phase III trials, large trials and first-line trials strengthened the correlation (0.78-0.94). The STE for PFS was 0.78.ConclusionsPFS may be the appropriate surrogate for OS in anti-PD-1/PD-L1 trials of metastatic melanoma. A future anti-PD-1/PD-L1 trial would need less than 0.78 for PFS of the upper limit of confidence interval to predict an OS benefit.
| S-EPMC7301660 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Our objective was to evaluate progression-free survival (PFS) and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) as surrogate end points for overall survival (OS) in randomized trials of chemotherapy in loco-regionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinomas (NPCs). Individual patient data were obtained from 19 trials of the updated Meta-Analysis of Chemotherapy in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma (MAC-NPC) plus one additional trial (total = 5144 patients). Surrogacy was evaluated at the individual level using a rank correlation coefficient ρ and at the trial level using a correlation coefficient R2 between treatment effects on the surrogate end point and OS. A sensitivity analysis was performed with two-year PFS/DMFS and five-year OS. PFS was strongly correlated with OS at the individual level (ρ = 0.93, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.93 to 0.94) and at the trial level (R2 = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.47 to 1.00). For DMFS, too, the individual-level correlation with OS was strong (ρ = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.98 to 0.98); at trial level, the correlation was high but the regression adjusted for measurement error could not be computed (unadjusted R2 = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.94 to 0.99). In the sensitivity analysis, two-year PFS was highly correlated with five-year OS at the individual level (ρ = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.88 to 0.90) and at the trial level (R2 = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.46 to 1.00); two-year DMFS was highly correlated with five-year OS at the individual level (ρ = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.94 to 0.95) and at the trial level (R2 = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.33 to 1.00). PFS and DMFS are valid surrogate end points for OS to assess treatment effect of chemotherapy in loco-regionally advanced NPC, while PFS can be measured earlier.
| S-EPMC6059121 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundRecent phase 3 trials have shown an overall survival benefit in metastatic melanoma. We aimed to assess whether progression-free survival (PFS) could be regarded as a reliable surrogate for overall survival through a meta-analysis of randomised trials.MethodsWe systematically reviewed randomised trials comparing treatment regimens in metastatic melanoma that included dacarbazine as the control arm, and which reported both PFS and overall survival with a standard hazard ratio (HR). We correlated HRs for overall survival and PFS, weighted by sample size or by precision of the HR estimate, assuming fixed and random effects. We did sensitivity analyses according to presence of crossover, trial size, and dacarbazine dose.FindingsAfter screening 1649 reports and meeting abstracts published before Sept 8, 2013, we identified 12 eligible randomised trials that enrolled 4416 patients with metastatic melanoma. Irrespective of weighting strategy, we noted a strong correlation between the treatment effects for PFS and overall survival, which seemed independent of treatment type. Pearson correlation coefficients were 0·71 (95% CI 0·29-0·90) with a random-effects assumption, 0·85 (0·59-0·95) with a fixed-effects assumption, and 0·89 (0·68-0·97) with sample-size weighting. For nine trials without crossover, the correlation coefficient was 0·96 (0·81-0·99), which decreased to 0·93 (0·74-0·98) when two additional trials with less than 50% crossover were included. Inclusion of mature follow-up data after at least 50% crossover (in vemurafenib and dabrafenib phase 3 trials) weakened the PFS to overall survival correlation (0·55, 0·03-0·84). Inclusion of trials with no or little crossover with the random-effects assumption yielded a conservative statement of the PFS to overall survival correlation of 0·85 (0·51-0·96).InterpretationPFS can be regarded as a robust surrogate for overall survival in dacarbazine-controlled randomised trials of metastatic melanoma; we postulate that this association will hold as treatment standards evolve and are adopted as the control arm in future trials.FundingNone.
| S-EPMC4443445 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Purpose Until recently, limited options existed for patients with advanced melanoma who experienced disease progression while receiving treatment with ipilimumab. Here, we report the coprimary overall survival (OS) end point of CheckMate 037, which has previously shown that nivolumab resulted in more patients achieving an objective response compared with chemotherapy regimens in ipilimumab-refractory patients with advanced melanoma. Patients and Methods Patients were stratified by programmed death-ligand 1 expression, BRAF status, and best prior cytotoxic T-lymphocyte antigen-4 therapy response, then randomly assigned 2:1 to nivolumab 3 mg/kg intravenously every 2 weeks or investigator's choice chemotherapy (ICC; dacarbazine 1,000 mg/m2 every 3 weeks or carboplatin area under the curve 6 plus paclitaxel 175 mg/m2 every 3 weeks). Patients were treated until they experienced progression or unacceptable toxicity, with follow-up of approximately 2 years. Results Two hundred seventy-two patients were randomly assigned to nivolumab (99% treated) and 133 to ICC (77% treated). More nivolumab-treated patients had brain metastases (20% v 14%) and increased lactate dehydrogenase levels (52% v 38%) at baseline; 41% of patients treated with ICC versus 11% of patients treated with nivolumab received anti-programmed death 1 agents after randomly assigned therapy. Median OS was 16 months for nivolumab versus 14 months for ICC (hazard ratio, 0.95; 95.54% CI, 0.73 to 1.24); median progression-free survival was 3.1 months versus 3.7 months, respectively (hazard ratio, 1.0; 95.1% CI, 0.78 to 1.436). Overall response rate (27% v 10%) and median duration of response (32 months v 13 months) were notably higher for nivolumab versus ICC. Fewer grade 3 and 4 treatment-related adverse events were observed in patients on nivolumab (14% v 34%). Conclusion Nivolumab demonstrated higher, more durable responses but no difference in survival compared with ICC. OS should be interpreted with caution as it was likely impacted by an increased dropout rate before treatment, which led to crossover therapy in the ICC group, and by an increased proportion of patients in the nivolumab group with poor prognostic factors.
| S-EPMC6804912 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Event-free survival (EFS) is considered the most reliable surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of adjuvant therapies for malignant tumours. However, the surrogacy of intermediate endpoints such as EFS for OS in trials of patients with osteosarcoma has not been investigated to date. In this study, we investigated the correlation between OS and intermediate endpoints in RCTs of localised osteosarcoma. A systematic search identified 20 relevant RCTs. The correlations between the surrogate endpoints and OS were evaluated using weighted linear regression analyses and by calculating the Spearman rank correlation coefficients (ρ). The strength of the correlation was determined by calculating the coefficient of determination (R2). A total of 5,620 patients were randomly assigned to 45 treatment arms in the eligible 20 RCTs. The correlation between the hazard ratios for EFS and OS was moderate (R2 = 0.456, ρ = 0.440); this correlation tended to be weaker for patients with localised osteosarcoma excluding the patients with metastases. Overall, the trial-level correlation between the surrogate endpoints and OS was not robust in RCTs of osteosarcoma published to date. Hence, the suitability of the intermediate endpoints as surrogates for OS could not be confirmed.
| S-EPMC7244479 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The standard phase II trial design has changed dramatically over the past decade. Randomized phase II studies have essentially become the standard phase II design in oncology for a variety of reasons. The use of these designs is motivated by concerns about the use of historical data to determine if a new agent or regimen shows promise of activity. However, randomized phase II designs come with the cost of increased study duration and patient resources. Progression-free survival (PFS) is an important endpoint used in many phase II designs. In many clinical settings, changes in PFS with the introduction of a new treatment may represent true benefit in terms of the gold standard outcome, overall survival (OS). The phase II/III design has been proposed as an approach to shorten the time of discovery of an active regimen. In this article, design considerations for a phase II/III trial are discussed and presented in terms of a model defining the relationship between OS and PFS. The design is also evaluated using 15 phase III trials completed in the Southwest Oncology Group (SWOG) between 1990 and 2005. The model provides a framework to evaluate the validity and properties of using a phase II/III design. In the evaluation of SWOG trials, three of four positive studies would have also proceeded to the final analysis and 10 of 11 negative studies would have stopped at the phase II analysis if a phase II/III design had been used. Through careful consideration and thorough evaluation of design properties, substantial gains could occur using this approach.
| S-EPMC4131693 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTime to next treatment or death (TNT-D) may be a patient-relevant endpoint in patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors. This study investigated TNT-D as a surrogate endpoint (SE) for overall survival (OS) in previously untreated advanced melanoma patients.MethodsPatient-level data from the 60-month results of the CheckMate 067 randomised, controlled trial were used. Analyses were carried out for nivolumab monotherapy or nivolumab with ipilimumab versus ipilimumab monotherapy. The SE 1-step validation method based on a joint frailty-copula model was used where the country of enrolment was applied to define clusters. Kendall's τ and the coefficient of determination (R2trial) were estimated for respective measurements of association at the individual and cluster levels. The surrogate threshold effect, the maximum threshold hazard ratio for TNT-D that would translate into OS benefit, was estimated. A leave-one-out cross-validation analysis was carried out to evaluate model robustness.ResultsFifteen clusters of data were generated from 945 patients. For both nivolumab-containing arms, the association between TNT-D and OS was deemed acceptable at the individual level (Kendall's τ > 0.60) and strong at the cluster level, with R2trial fairly close to 1, with narrow confidence intervals. The estimated surrogate threshold effects were 0.61 for nivolumab versus ipilimumab and 0.49 for nivolimub + ipilimumab versus ipilimumab. Cross-validation results showed minimum variation of the correlation measures and satisfactory predictive accuracy for the model.ConclusionResults suggest that TNT-D may be a valuable SE in previously untreated advanced melanoma patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors. Surrogacy analyses considering multiple randomised controlled trials are warranted for confirming these findings.
| S-EPMC8693416 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeThe best phase II design and endpoint for growth inhibitory agents is controversial. We simulated phase II trials by resampling patients from a positive (sorafenib vs. placebo; TARGET) and a negative (AE941 vs. placebo) phase III trial in metastatic renal cancer to compare the ability of various designs and endpoints to predict the known results.Experimental designA total of 770 and 259 patients from TARGET and the AE 941 trial, respectively, were resampled (5,000 replicates) to simulate phase II trials with α = 0.10 (one-sided). Designs/endpoints: single arm, two-stage with response rate (RR) by Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST; 37 patients); and randomized, two arm (20-35 patients per arm) with RR by RECIST, mean log ratio of tumor sizes (log ratio), progression-free survival (PFS) rate at 90 days (PFS-90), and overall PFS.ResultsSingle-arm trials were positive with RR by RECIST in 55% and 1% of replications for sorafenib and AE 941, respectively. Randomized trials versus placebo with 20 patients per arm were positive with RR by RECIST in 55% and 7%, log ratio in 88% and 25%, PFS-90 in 64% and 15%, and overall PFS in 69% and 9% of replications for sorafenib and AE 941, respectively.ConclusionsCompared with the single-arm design and the randomized design comparing PFS, the randomized phase II design with the log ratio endpoint has greater power to predict the positive phase III result of sorafenib in renal cancer, but a higher false positive rate for the negative phase III result of AE 941.
| S-EPMC3328614 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Endpoints related to tumor progression are commonly used in clinical trials of novel therapeutic agents for neuroendocrine tumors (NETs). Whether improved tumor control translates into improved overall survival (OS), however, is uncertain. We assessed associations between tumor progression endpoints and OS in observational cohorts of patients with advanced neuroendocrine tumors treated with somatostatin analogs or with everolimus. We identified 440 patients with advanced NET who had received treatment with single-agent somatostatin analogs and 109 patients treated with everolimus, all of whom were treated at our institution and were evaluable for both tumor progression and survival. We assessed associations between progression-free survival (PFS) and OS by using the Kendall tau test, and we assessed associations between tumor progression and OS by using a landmark analysis. In the 440 patients treated with somatostatin analogs, we observed a significant correlation between PFS and OS by using the Kendall tau test (0.31; p < .0001). Additionally, the development of progressive disease was associated with OS in a landmark analysis, at landmark times of 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. In the 109 patients treated with everolimus, we similarly observed a significant correlation between PFS and OS by using the Kendall tau test (0.44; p < .0001) and associations between progressive disease and OS by using a landmark analysis at 3, 6, and 12 months. In these observational cohorts of patients with metastatic NET treated with single-agent somatostatin analogs or everolimus, longer times to disease progression and longer PFS were both associated with improved OS. Our findings support the continued use of disease progression endpoints in NET clinical trials. The Oncologist 2017;22:165-172Implications for Practice: Clinical trials in patients with advanced neuroendocrine tumors have used progression-free survival as a primary endpoint. While there is a general assumption that slowing or halting tumor growth is beneficial, little direct evidence links improvements in progression endpoints to improvements in overall survival. This study assessed associations between tumor progression endpoints and overall survival in observational cohorts of patients with advanced neuroendocrine tumor treated with somatostatin analogs or everolimus. Longer times to disease progression and improved progression-free survival were both associated with improved overall survival. The findings support the continued use of tumor progression endpoints in clinical trials for neuroendocrine tumors.
| S-EPMC5330705 | biostudies-literature