Potential surrogate endpoints for overall survival in locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma: an analysis of a phase III randomized trial.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Chen YP
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4518214 | biostudies-other | 2015
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Project description:BackgroundWe aimed to assess whether the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST)-based objective response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR) and progression-free survival (PFS) could serve as surrogate endpoints for overall survival (OS) in immune-oncology (IO) trials of advanced gastro-esophageal (GE) carcinoma.MethodsRandomized controlled trials (RCTs) of IO that reported RECIST-based endpoints and OS in advanced GE carcinoma were screened. Surrogacy of endpoints for OS was assessed based on the correlation between endpoints with OS (arm-level), and between treatment effects on endpoints (trial-level). The correlations were quantified by Pearson correlation coefficient (R). Leave-one-out cross-validation was used to assess the prediction accuracy of surrogate model.ResultsSeventeen RCTs (9,657 subjects) with 20 comparisons were included. The correlations between DCR and OS were not strong at arm- (R = 0.80) and trial-levels (R = 0.45), but strong correlations between ORR (R = 0.91), PFS (R = 0.89) and OS at arm-level were observed. Treatment effect on ORR and PFS (both R = 0.71) was moderately correlated with treatment effect on OS. Leave-one-out cross-validation approach further validated the surrogacy of PFS. Our analysis showed that 3-month PFS could reliably predict 6-month OS, 6-month PFS could reliably predict 12-month OS, and 12-month PFS could reliably predict 18-month OS. The conservative minimum threshold effect of HRPFS was 0.73.ConclusionsPFS may be the appropriate surrogate for OS in IO trials of GE carcinoma. A conservative minimum threshold effect of HRPFS ≤ 0.73 has the potential to predict a significant improvement in OS.
| S-EPMC9239497 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:In the era of intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT), the efficacy of additional neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) to concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) in locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is currently being investigated in ongoing trials. Overall survival (OS) is the gold standard endpoint in NPC trials. We performed this analysis to identify surrogate endpoints for OS, which could shorten follow-up duration and speed up assessment of treatment effects. METHODS:We retrospectively analysed 208 matched-pair patients with locoregionally advanced NPC receiving NACT+CCRT or CCRT. Progression-free survival (PFS), failure-free survival (FFS), distant failure-free survival (D-FFS) and locoregional failure-free survival (LR-FFS) at 2 and 3 years were assessed as surrogates for 5-year OS according to Prentice's criteria. The strength of the associations were assessed using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. RESULTS:No significant differences were observed between treatment arms for any surrogate endpoint at 2 years, which rejected Prentice's second criterion. In contrast, 3-year LR-FFS, PFS, FFS and D-FFS were consistent with all four of Prentice's criteria; the rank correlation coefficient (0.730) between 3-year PFS and 5-year OS was highest. CONCLUSIONS:3-year PFS, FFS and D-FFS could be valid surrogate endpoints for 5-year OS; 3-year PFS may be the most accurate.
| S-EPMC4659203 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWe assessed the surrogacy of objective response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR) and progression-free survival (PFS) for overall survival (OS) in anti-PD-1/PD-L1 trials of metastatic melanoma through a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs).MethodsPubMed and EMBASE were searched for phase II/III RCTs till June 2019 investigating anti-PD-1/PD-L1 agents. Treatment effect (hazard ratio or odds ratio) on potential surrogates (ORR/DCR/PFS) and OS were collected. At trial level, we assessed the correlation between treatment effect on potential surrogates and OS, weighted by sample size, fixed and random effect models, and calculated the surrogate threshold effect (STE). Sensitivity analyses and leave-one-out cross-validation approach were performed to evaluate the robustness of our findings.ResultsWe included 8 RCTs (4110 patients; 11 comparisons). We did not identify strong correlations between ORR [coefficient of determination (R 2): 0.09-0.25], DCR (0.41-0.57) and OS. However, we noted a strong correlation between PFS and OS, with R 2 of 0.82 in sample size, 0.75 in fixed effect and 0.72 in random effect model weighting, the robustness of which was further verified by leave-one-out cross-validation approach. Sensitivity analyses with restriction to trials with less than 50% crossover, phase III trials, large trials and first-line trials strengthened the correlation (0.78-0.94). The STE for PFS was 0.78.ConclusionsPFS may be the appropriate surrogate for OS in anti-PD-1/PD-L1 trials of metastatic melanoma. A future anti-PD-1/PD-L1 trial would need less than 0.78 for PFS of the upper limit of confidence interval to predict an OS benefit.
| S-EPMC7301660 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Our objective was to evaluate progression-free survival (PFS) and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) as surrogate end points for overall survival (OS) in randomized trials of chemotherapy in loco-regionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinomas (NPCs). Individual patient data were obtained from 19 trials of the updated Meta-Analysis of Chemotherapy in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma (MAC-NPC) plus one additional trial (total = 5144 patients). Surrogacy was evaluated at the individual level using a rank correlation coefficient ρ and at the trial level using a correlation coefficient R2 between treatment effects on the surrogate end point and OS. A sensitivity analysis was performed with two-year PFS/DMFS and five-year OS. PFS was strongly correlated with OS at the individual level (ρ = 0.93, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.93 to 0.94) and at the trial level (R2 = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.47 to 1.00). For DMFS, too, the individual-level correlation with OS was strong (ρ = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.98 to 0.98); at trial level, the correlation was high but the regression adjusted for measurement error could not be computed (unadjusted R2 = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.94 to 0.99). In the sensitivity analysis, two-year PFS was highly correlated with five-year OS at the individual level (ρ = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.88 to 0.90) and at the trial level (R2 = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.46 to 1.00); two-year DMFS was highly correlated with five-year OS at the individual level (ρ = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.94 to 0.95) and at the trial level (R2 = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.33 to 1.00). PFS and DMFS are valid surrogate end points for OS to assess treatment effect of chemotherapy in loco-regionally advanced NPC, while PFS can be measured earlier.
| S-EPMC6059121 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The value of adding induction chemotherapy (IC) to concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) for the treatment of locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) remains unclear. In our recent article entitled "Induction chemotherapy plus concurrent chemoradiotherapy versus concurrent chemoradiotherapy alone in locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a phase 3, multicentre, randomised controlled trial" published in the Lancet Oncology, we reported the results of a phase III, multicenter, randomized controlled trial comparing cisplatin, 5-fluorouracil, and docetaxel (TPF) IC plus CCRT versus CCRT alone in patients with T3-4N1/TxN2-3M0 NPC (ClinicalTrials.gov registration number NCT01245959). The IC-plus-CCRT group showed significantly higher 3-year failure-free survival, overall survival, and distant failure-free survival rates than the CCRT-alone group, with an acceptable toxicity profile. Our study suggests that adding TPF IC to CCRT could increase survival rates and reduce distant failure in patients with locoregionally advanced NPC. However, long-term follow-up is required to assess the eventual efficacy and toxicity of this strategy, and a more accurate method to determine prognosis is needed to enable better tailoring of treatment strategy for individual patients.
| S-EPMC5111216 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Recent phase 3 trials have shown an overall survival benefit in metastatic melanoma. We aimed to assess whether progression-free survival (PFS) could be regarded as a reliable surrogate for overall survival through a meta-analysis of randomised trials. METHODS:We systematically reviewed randomised trials comparing treatment regimens in metastatic melanoma that included dacarbazine as the control arm, and which reported both PFS and overall survival with a standard hazard ratio (HR). We correlated HRs for overall survival and PFS, weighted by sample size or by precision of the HR estimate, assuming fixed and random effects. We did sensitivity analyses according to presence of crossover, trial size, and dacarbazine dose. FINDINGS:After screening 1649 reports and meeting abstracts published before Sept 8, 2013, we identified 12 eligible randomised trials that enrolled 4416 patients with metastatic melanoma. Irrespective of weighting strategy, we noted a strong correlation between the treatment effects for PFS and overall survival, which seemed independent of treatment type. Pearson correlation coefficients were 0·71 (95% CI 0·29-0·90) with a random-effects assumption, 0·85 (0·59-0·95) with a fixed-effects assumption, and 0·89 (0·68-0·97) with sample-size weighting. For nine trials without crossover, the correlation coefficient was 0·96 (0·81-0·99), which decreased to 0·93 (0·74-0·98) when two additional trials with less than 50% crossover were included. Inclusion of mature follow-up data after at least 50% crossover (in vemurafenib and dabrafenib phase 3 trials) weakened the PFS to overall survival correlation (0·55, 0·03-0·84). Inclusion of trials with no or little crossover with the random-effects assumption yielded a conservative statement of the PFS to overall survival correlation of 0·85 (0·51-0·96). INTERPRETATION:PFS can be regarded as a robust surrogate for overall survival in dacarbazine-controlled randomised trials of metastatic melanoma; we postulate that this association will hold as treatment standards evolve and are adopted as the control arm in future trials. FUNDING:None.
| S-EPMC4443445 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Event-free survival (EFS) is considered the most reliable surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of adjuvant therapies for malignant tumours. However, the surrogacy of intermediate endpoints such as EFS for OS in trials of patients with osteosarcoma has not been investigated to date. In this study, we investigated the correlation between OS and intermediate endpoints in RCTs of localised osteosarcoma. A systematic search identified 20 relevant RCTs. The correlations between the surrogate endpoints and OS were evaluated using weighted linear regression analyses and by calculating the Spearman rank correlation coefficients (?). The strength of the correlation was determined by calculating the coefficient of determination (R2). A total of 5,620 patients were randomly assigned to 45 treatment arms in the eligible 20 RCTs. The correlation between the hazard ratios for EFS and OS was moderate (R2?=?0.456, ??=?0.440); this correlation tended to be weaker for patients with localised osteosarcoma excluding the patients with metastases. Overall, the trial-level correlation between the surrogate endpoints and OS was not robust in RCTs of osteosarcoma published to date. Hence, the suitability of the intermediate endpoints as surrogates for OS could not be confirmed.
| S-EPMC7244479 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The standard of care for patients with locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma is concurrent platinum-based chemoradiotherapy. Existing literature have demonstrated that the addition of gemcitabine and cisplatin as induction chemotherapy in locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma may have promising efficacy but were from phase 2 clinical trials. Stronger evidence-based data in forms of phase 3 clinical trial investigating the survival benefits of adding gemcitabine and cisplatin induction chemotherapy for such patients have been urgently warranted. In one of our recent studies published in the New England Journal of Medicine, "Gemcitabine and cisplatin induction chemotherapy in nasopharyngeal carcinoma", 480 locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients from 12 hospitals across China were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive either chemoradiotherapy alone or gemcitabine plus cisplatin and chemoradiotherapy. Our findings evinced that, as compared to chemoradiotherapy alone, the addition of induction chemotherapy comprising of gemcitabine plus cisplatin to concurrent cisplatin-radiotherapy to patients with locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma was safe, demonstrated improved recurrence-free survival, overall survival, and distant recurrence-free survival, and marginally superior locoregional recurrence-free survival.
| S-EPMC6593505 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Endpoints related to tumor progression are commonly used in clinical trials of novel therapeutic agents for neuroendocrine tumors (NETs). Whether improved tumor control translates into improved overall survival (OS), however, is uncertain. We assessed associations between tumor progression endpoints and OS in observational cohorts of patients with advanced neuroendocrine tumors treated with somatostatin analogs or with everolimus. We identified 440 patients with advanced NET who had received treatment with single-agent somatostatin analogs and 109 patients treated with everolimus, all of whom were treated at our institution and were evaluable for both tumor progression and survival. We assessed associations between progression-free survival (PFS) and OS by using the Kendall tau test, and we assessed associations between tumor progression and OS by using a landmark analysis. In the 440 patients treated with somatostatin analogs, we observed a significant correlation between PFS and OS by using the Kendall tau test (0.31; p < .0001). Additionally, the development of progressive disease was associated with OS in a landmark analysis, at landmark times of 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. In the 109 patients treated with everolimus, we similarly observed a significant correlation between PFS and OS by using the Kendall tau test (0.44; p < .0001) and associations between progressive disease and OS by using a landmark analysis at 3, 6, and 12 months. In these observational cohorts of patients with metastatic NET treated with single-agent somatostatin analogs or everolimus, longer times to disease progression and longer PFS were both associated with improved OS. Our findings support the continued use of disease progression endpoints in NET clinical trials. The Oncologist 2017;22:165-172Implications for Practice: Clinical trials in patients with advanced neuroendocrine tumors have used progression-free survival as a primary endpoint. While there is a general assumption that slowing or halting tumor growth is beneficial, little direct evidence links improvements in progression endpoints to improvements in overall survival. This study assessed associations between tumor progression endpoints and overall survival in observational cohorts of patients with advanced neuroendocrine tumor treated with somatostatin analogs or everolimus. Longer times to disease progression and improved progression-free survival were both associated with improved overall survival. The findings support the continued use of tumor progression endpoints in clinical trials for neuroendocrine tumors.
| S-EPMC5330705 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundOverall survival (OS) is the gold standard for the demonstration of a clinical benefit in cancer trials. Replacement of OS by a surrogate endpoint allows to reduce trial duration. To date, few surrogate endpoints have been validated in digestive oncology. The aim of this study was to draw up an ordered list of potential surrogate endpoints for OS in digestive cancer trials, by way of a survey among clinicians and methodologists. Secondary objective was to obtain their opinion on surrogacy and quality of life (QoL).MethodsIn 2007 and 2008, self administered sequential questionnaires were sent to a panel of French clinicians and methodologists involved in the conduct of cancer clinical trials. In the first questionnaire, panellists were asked to choose the most important characteristics defining a surrogate among six proposals, to give advantages and drawbacks of the surrogates, and to answer questions about their validation and use. Then they had to suggest potential surrogate endpoints for OS in each of the following tumour sites: oesophagus, stomach, liver, pancreas, biliary tract, lymphoma, colon, rectum, and anus. They finally gave their opinion on QoL as surrogate endpoint. In the second questionnaire, they had to classify the previously proposed candidate surrogates from the most (position #1) to the least relevant in their opinion.Frequency at which the endpoints were chosen as first, second or third most relevant surrogates was calculated and served as final ranking.ResultsResponse rate was 30% (24/80) in the first round and 20% (16/80) in the second one. Participants highlighted key points concerning surrogacy. In particular, they reminded that a surrogate endpoint is expected to predict clinical benefit in a well-defined therapeutic situation. Half of them thought it was not relevant to study QoL as surrogate for OS.DFS, in the neoadjuvant settings or early stages, and PFS, in the non operable or metastatic settings, were ranked first, with a frequency of more than 69% in 20 out of 22 settings. PFS was proposed in association with QoL in metastatic primary liver and stomach cancers (both 81%). This composite endpoint was ranked second in metastatic oesophageal (69%), colorectal (56%) and anal (56%) cancers, whereas QoL alone was also suggested in most metastatic situations.Other endpoints frequently suggested were R0 resection in the neoadjuvant settings (oesophagus (69%), stomach (56%), pancreas (75%) and biliary tract (63%)) and response. An unexpected endpoint was metastatic PFS in non operable oesophageal (31%) and pancreatic (44%) cancers. Quality and results of surgical procedures like sphincter preservation were also cited as eligible surrogate endpoints in rectal (19%) and anal (50% in case of localized disease) cancers. Except for alpha-FP kinetic in hepatocellular carcinoma (13%) and CA19-9 decline (6%) in pancreas, few endpoints based on biological or tumour markers were proposed.ConclusionThe overall results should help prioritise the endpoints to be statistically evaluated as surrogate for OS, so that trialists and clinicians can rely on endpoints that ensure relevant clinical benefit to the patient.
| S-EPMC2904280 | biostudies-literature