Dataset Information

External validation of IBTR! 2.0 nomogram for prediction of ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence.

ABSTRACT:

Purpose

IBTR! 2.0 nomogram is web-based nomogram that predicts ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR). We aimed to validate the IBTR! 2.0 using an external data set. Materials and.

Methods

The cohort consisted of 2,206 patients, who received breast conserving surgery and radiation therapy from 1992 to 2012 at our institution, where wide surgical excision is been routinely performed. Discrimination and calibration were used for assessing model performance. Patients with predicted 10-year IBTR risk based on an IBTR! 2.0 nomogram score of <3%, 3%-5%, 5%-10%, and >10% were assigned to groups 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. We also plotted calibration values to observe the actual IBTR rate against the nomogram-derived 10-year IBTR probabilities.

Results

The median follow-up period was 73 months (range, 6 to 277 months). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.607, showing poor accordance between the estimated and observed recurrence rate. Calibration plot confirmed that the IBTR! 2.0 nomogram predicted the 10-year IBTR risk higher than the observed IBTR rates in all groups. High discrepancies between nomogram IBTR predictions and observed IBTR rates were observed in overall risk groups. Compared with the original development dataset, our patients had fewer high grade tumors, less margin positivity, and less lymphovascular invasion, and more use of modern systemic therapies. Conclusions: IBTR! 2.0 nomogram seems to have the moderate discriminative ability with a tendency to over-estimating risk rate. Continued efforts are needed to ensure external applicability of published nomograms by validating the program using an external patient population.

SUBMITTER: Lee BM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6074074 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

External validation of IBTR! 2.0 nomogram for prediction of ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence.

Lee Byung Min BM Chang Jee Suk JS Cho Young Up YU Park Seho S Park Hyung Seok HS Kim Jee Ye JY Sohn Joo Hyuk JH Kim Gun Min GM Koo Ja Seung JS Keum Ki Chang KC Suh Chang-Ok CO Kim Yong Bae YB

Radiation oncology journal 20180629 2

<h4>Purpose</h4>IBTR! 2.0 nomogram is web-based nomogram that predicts ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR). We aimed to validate the IBTR! 2.0 using an external data set. Materials and.<h4>Methods</h4>The cohort consisted of 2,206 patients, who received breast conserving surgery and radiation therapy from 1992 to 2012 at our institution, where wide surgical excision is been routinely performed. Discrimination and calibration were used for assessing model performance. Patients with predict ...[more]

PMID: 29983034

Similar Datasets

Project description:PurposeTo evaluate the clinical course and long-term outcomes of patients with ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR) after breast-conserving surgery (BCS) and identify independent prognostic factors for further recurrence.MethodsIn this retrospective study, we reviewed the records of 327 patients who experienced IBTR after undergoing BCS for breast cancer at Asan Medical Center during 1990-2013. Overall survival (OS) after IBTR and cumulative incidence rates of recurrences after IBTR were calculated. The association of clinicopathological factors with survival and the development of further recurrence after IBTR was determined in multivariate analysis.ResultsAt a median follow-up of 127.7 months, 97 patients experienced recurrence after IBTR. The 5-year and 10-year cumulative incidence rates of recurrence after IBTR were 32% and 41%, respectively. The 5-year and 10-year OS rates after IBTR were 86.6% and 70.3%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, hormone receptor negativity was associated with decreases in OS after IBTR (hazard ratio [HR] 2.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18-6.78). Patients with longer disease-free interval (DFI) had decreased risks of second recurrence (HR .99, 95% CI .99-1.00), and second locoregional recurrence (LRR) (HR .98, 95% CI .97-.99). Lymphovascular invasion (LVI) of IBTR was associated with increased recurrence rates (second recurrence-free survival, HR 3.58, 95% CI 2.16-5.94; second LRR free survival, HR 5.21, 95% CI 2.77-9.78; second distant metastasis-free survival, 2.11, 95% CI 1.04-4.30) and lower survival rates (OS after IBTR, HR 4.64, 95% CI 2.23-9.67).ConclusionsDespite subsequent recurrences during long-term follow-up, the survival rates after IBTR remained high. Patients with hormone receptor-negative tumors, shorter DFI, and tumors that present LVI of IBTR had higher risks for recurrence and poor survival rates after IBTR. The study findings may help in understanding the course and prognosis of IBTR patients and identifying high-risk IBTR to establish management strategies.

Project description:BackgroundNon-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients with ipsilateral pleural dissemination are defined as M1a in the eighth of American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM staging. We aimed to build a nomogram to predict lung cancer specific survival (LCSS) of NSCLC patients with ipsilateral pleural dissemination and to compare the impact of primary tumor resection (PTR) on LCSS among patients with different features.MethodsA total of 3,918 NSCLC patients with ipsilateral pleural dissemination were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. We selected and integrated significant prognostic factors based on competing risk regression to build a nomogram. The model was subjected to internal validation within SEER cohort and external validation with the cohort of 97 patients from Peking University People's Hospital.ResultsAge (P < 0.001), gender (P = 0.037), T stage (P = 0.002), N stage (P < 0.001), metastasis pattern (P = 0.005), chemotherapy (P < 0.001), and PTR (P < 0.001) were independent prognostic factors. The calibration curves presented a good consistency and the Harrell's C-index of nomogram were 0.682 (95%CI: 0.673-0.691), 0.687 (95%CI: 0.670-0.704) and 0.667 (95%CI: 0.584-0.750) in training, internal, and external validation cohort, respectively. Interaction tests suggested a greater LCSS difference caused by PTR in patients without chemotherapy (P < 0.001).ConclusionsWe developed a nomogram based on competing risk regression to reliably predict prognosis of NSCLC patients with ipsilateral pleural dissemination and validated this nomogram in an external Chinese cohort. This novel nomogram might be a practical tool for clinicians to anticipate the 1-, 3- and 5-year LCSS for NSCLC patients with pleural dissemination. Subgroup analysis indicated that patients without chemotherapy could get more benefit from PTR. In order to assess the role of PTR in the management of M1a patients more accurately, further prospective study would be urgently required.

Dataset Information

External validation of IBTR! 2.0 nomogram for prediction of ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence.

Purpose

Methods

Results

Publications

External validation of IBTR! 2.0 nomogram for prediction of ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets