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Progression-free survival as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival in modern ovarian cancer trials: a meta-analysis.

ABSTRACT: Background:Progression-free survival (PFS) has been adopted as the primary endpoint in many randomized controlled trials, and can be determined much earlier than overall survival (OS). We investigated whether PFS is a good surrogate endpoint for OS in trials of first-line treatment for epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC), and whether this relationship has changed with the introduction of new treatment types. Methods:In a meta-analysis, we identified summary data [hazard ratio (HR) and median time] from published randomized controlled trials. Linear regression was used to assess the association between treatment effects on PFS and OS overall, and for subgroups defined by treatment type, postprogression survival (PPS) and established prognostic factors. Results:Correlation between HRs for PFS and OS, in 26 trials with 30 treatment comparisons comprising 24,870 patients, was modest (r2 = 0.52, weighted by trial sample size). The correlation diminished with recency: preplatinum/paclitaxel era, r2= 0.66; platinum/paclitaxel, r2= 0.44; triplet combinations, r2= 0.22; biologicals, r2= 0.30. The median PPS increased over time for the experimental (Ptrend = 0.03) and control arms (Ptrend = 0.003). The difference in median PPS between treatment arms strongly correlated with the difference in median OS (r2 = 0.83). In trials where the control therapy had median PPS of less than 18 months, correlation between PFS and OS was stronger (r2 = 0.64) than where the median PPS was longer (r2 = 0.48). Conclusions:In EOC, correlation in the relative treatment effect between PFS and OS in first-line platinum-based chemotherapy randomized controlled trials is moderate and has weakened with increasing availability of effective salvage therapies.

SUBMITTER: Sjoquist KM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6080081 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Progression-free survival as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival in modern ovarian cancer trials: a meta-analysis.

Sjoquist Katrin M KM Lord Sarah J SJ Friedlander Michael L ML John Simes Robert R Marschner Ian C IC Lee Chee Khoon CK

Therapeutic advances in medical oncology 20180806

<h4>Background</h4>Progression-free survival (PFS) has been adopted as the primary endpoint in many randomized controlled trials, and can be determined much earlier than overall survival (OS). We investigated whether PFS is a good surrogate endpoint for OS in trials of first-line treatment for epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC), and whether this relationship has changed with the introduction of new treatment types.<h4>Methods</h4>In a meta-analysis, we identified summary data [hazard ratio (HR) and ...[more]

PMID: 30093922

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Project description:PurposeThe aim of this study was to investigate whether progression-free survival (PFS) can be considered a surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) in malignant mesothelioma.Materials and methodsIndividual data were collected from 15 Cancer and Leukemia Group B (615 patients) and 2 North Central Cancer Treatment Group (101 patients) phase II trials. The effects of 5 risk factors for OS and PFS, including age, histology, performance status (PS), white blood cell count, and European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) risk score, were used in the analysis. Individual-level surrogacy was assessed by Kendall's tau through a Clayton bivariate Copula survival (CBCS) model. Summary-level surrogacy was evaluated via the association between logarithms of the hazard ratio (log HR)-log HROS and log HRPFS-measured in R2 from a weighted least-square (WLS) regression model and the CBCS model.ResultsThe median PFS for all patients was 3.0 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.8-3.5 months) and the median OS was 7.2 months (95% CI, 6.5-8.0 months). Moderate correlations between PFS and OS were observed across all risk factors at the individual level, with Kendall's tau ranging from 0.46 to 0.47. The summary-level surrogacy varied among risk factors. The Copula R2 ranged from 0.51 for PS to 0.78 for histology. The WLS R2 ranged from 0.26 for EORTC and PS to 0.67 for age.ConclusionsThe analyses demonstrated low to moderate individual-level surrogacy between PFS and OS. At the summary level, the surrogacy between PFS and OS varied significantly across different risk factors. With a short postprogression survival and a moderate correlation between PFS and OS, there is no evidence that PFS is a valid surrogate endpoint for OS in malignant mesothelioma. The Oncologist 2017;22:189-198Implications for Practice: For better disease management and for more efficient clinical trial designs, it is important to know if progression-free survival (PFS) is a good surrogate endpoint for overall survival in malignant mesothelioma. With a relatively large database of 17 phase II trials and 716 patients from Cancer and Leukemia Group B and North Central Cancer Treatment Group, we conducted statistical analyses and found that there is no evidence to suggest that PFS is a valid surrogate endpoint for OS for malignant mesothelioma. Future research work is needed to find alternative surrogate endpoints for OS.

Dataset Information

Progression-free survival as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival in modern ovarian cancer trials: a meta-analysis.

Publications

Progression-free survival as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival in modern ovarian cancer trials: a meta-analysis.

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