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A new weighted injury severity scoring system: Better predictive power for pediatric trauma mortality.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:An accurate injury severity measurement is essential for the evaluation of pediatric trauma care and outcome research. The traditional Injury Severity Score (ISS) does not consider the differential risks of the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) from different body regions nor is it pediatric specific. The objective of this study was to develop a weighted ISS (wISS) system for pediatric blunt trauma patients with better predictive power than ISS. METHODS:Based on the association between mortality and AIS from each of the six ISS body regions, we generated different weights for the component AIS scores used in the calculation of ISS. The weights and wISS were generated using the National Trauma Data Bank. The Nationwide Emergency Department Sample (NEDS) was used to validate our main results. Pediatric blunt trauma patients younger than 16 years were included, and mortality was the outcome. Discrimination (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, concordance) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic) were compared between the wISS and ISS. RESULTS:The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves from the wISS and ISS are 0.88 versus 0.86 in ISS of 1 to 74 and 0.77 versus 0.64 in ISS of 25 to 74 (p < 0.0001). The wISS showed higher specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and concordance when they were compared at similar levels of sensitivity. The wISS had better calibration (smaller Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic) than the ISS (11.6 vs. 19.7 for ISS = 1-74 and 10.9 vs. 12.6 for ISS = 25-74). The wISS showed even better discrimination with the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample. CONCLUSION:By weighting the AIS from different body regions, the wISS had significantly better predictive power for mortality than the ISS, especially in critically injured children. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE AND STUDY TYPE:Prognostic/epidemiological, level IV.

SUBMITTER: Shi J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6081250 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A new weighted injury severity scoring system: Better predictive power for pediatric trauma mortality.

Shi Junxin J Shen Jiabin J Caupp Sarah S Wang Angela A Nuss Kathryn E KE Kenney Brian B Wheeler Krista K KK Lu Bo B Xiang Henry H

The journal of trauma and acute care surgery 20180801 2

<h4>Background</h4>An accurate injury severity measurement is essential for the evaluation of pediatric trauma care and outcome research. The traditional Injury Severity Score (ISS) does not consider the differential risks of the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) from different body regions nor is it pediatric specific. The objective of this study was to develop a weighted ISS (wISS) system for pediatric blunt trauma patients with better predictive power than ISS.<h4>Methods</h4>Based on the associ ...[more]

PMID: 29787558

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Project description:Many injury severity scoring tools have been developed over the past few decades. These tools include the Injury Severity Score (ISS), New ISS (NISS), Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) and International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-based Injury Severity Score (ICISS). Although many studies have endeavored to determine the ability of these tools to predict the mortality of injured patients, their results have been inconsistent. We conducted a systematic review to summarize the predictive performances of these tools and explore the heterogeneity among studies. We defined a relevant article as any research article that reported the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve as a measure of predictive performance. We conducted an online search using MEDLINE and Embase. We evaluated the quality of each relevant article using a quality assessment questionnaire consisting of 10 questions. The total number of positive answers was reported as the quality score of the study. Meta-analysis was not performed due to the heterogeneity among studies. We identified 64 relevant articles with 157 AUROCs of the tools. The median number of positive answers to the questionnaire was 5, ranging from 2 to 8. Less than half of the relevant studies reported the version of the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) and/or ICD (37.5%). The heterogeneity among the studies could be observed in a broad distribution of crude mortality rates of study data, ranging from 1% to 38%. The NISS was mostly reported to perform better than the ISS when predicting the mortality of blunt trauma patients. The relative performance of the ICSS against the AIS-based tools was inconclusive because of the scarcity of studies. The performance of the ICISS appeared to be unstable because the performance could be altered by the type of formula and survival risk ratios used. In conclusion, high-quality studies were limited. The NISS might perform better in the mortality prediction of blunt injuries than the ISS. Additional studies are required to standardize the derivation of the ICISS and determine the relative performance of the ICISS against the AIS-based tools.

Project description:BACKGROUND:The Injury Severity Score (ISS) is the most commonly used injury scoring system in trauma research and benchmarking. An ISS greater than 15 conventionally defines severe injury; however, no studies evaluate whether ISS performs similarly between adults and children. Our objective was to evaluate ISS and Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) to predict mortality and define optimal thresholds of severe injury in pediatric trauma. METHODS:Patients from the Pennsylvania trauma registry 2000-2013 were included. Children were defined as younger than 16 years. Logistic regression predicted mortality from ISS for children and adults. The optimal ISS cutoff for mortality that maximized diagnostic characteristics was determined in children. Regression also evaluated the association between mortality and maximum AIS in each body region, controlling for age, mechanism, and nonaccidental trauma. Analysis was performed in single and multisystem injuries. Sensitivity analyses with alternative outcomes were performed. RESULTS:Included were 352,127 adults and 50,579 children. Children had similar predicted mortality at ISS of 25 as adults at ISS of 15 (5%). The optimal ISS cutoff in children was ISS greater than 25 and had a positive predictive value of 19% and negative predictive value of 99% compared to a positive predictive value of 7% and negative predictive value of 99% for ISS greater than 15 to predict mortality. In single-system-injured children, mortality was associated with head (odds ratio, 4.80; 95% confidence interval, 2.61-8.84; p < 0.01) and chest AIS (odds ratio, 3.55; 95% confidence interval, 1.81-6.97; p < 0.01), but not abdomen, face, neck, spine, or extremity AIS (p > 0.05). For multisystem injury, all body region AIS scores were associated with mortality except extremities. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated ISS greater than 23 to predict need for full trauma activation, and ISS greater than 26 to predict impaired functional independence were optimal thresholds. CONCLUSION:An ISS greater than 25 may be a more appropriate definition of severe injury in children. Pattern of injury is important, as only head and chest injury drive mortality in single-system-injured children. These findings should be considered in benchmarking and performance improvement efforts. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE:Epidemiologic study, level III.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Children suffering nonaccidental trauma (NAT) are at high risk of death. It is unclear whether markers of injury severity for trauma center/system benchmarking such as Injury Severity Score (ISS) adequately characterize this. Our objective was to evaluate mortality prediction of ISS in children with NAT compared with accidental trauma (AT). METHODS:Pediatric patients younger than 16 years from the Pennsylvania state trauma registry 2000 to 2013 were included. Logistic regression predicted mortality from ISS for NAT and AT patients. Multilevel logistic regression determined the association between mortality and ISS while adjusting for age, vital signs, and injury pattern in NAT and AT patients. Similar models were performed for head Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS). Sensitivity analysis examined impaired functional independence at discharge as an alternate outcome. RESULTS:Fifty thousand five hundred seventy-nine patients were included with 1,866 (3.7%) NAT patients. Nonaccidental trauma patients had a similar rate of mortality at an ISS of 13 as an ISS of 25 for AT patients. Nonaccidental trauma patients also have higher mortality for a given head AIS level (range, 1.2-fold to 5.9-fold higher). Injury Severity Score was a significantly greater predictor of mortality in AT patients (adjusted odds rations [AOR], 1.14; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-1.15; p < 0.01) than NAT patients (AOR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.07-1.12; p < 0.01) per 1-point ISS increase, while head injury was a significantly greater predictor of mortality in NAT patients (AOR, 3.48; 95% CI, 1.54-8.32; p < 0.01) than AT patients (AOR, 1.21; 95% CI, 0.95-1.45; p = 0.12). Nonaccidental trauma patients had a higher rate of impaired functional independence at any given ISS or head AIS level than AT patients. CONCLUSION:Nonaccidental trauma patients have higher mortality and impaired function at a given ISS/head AIS than AT patients. Conventional ISS thresholds may underestimate risk and head injury is a more important predictor of mortality in the NAT population. These findings should be considered in system performance improvement and benchmarking efforts that rely on ISS for injury characterization. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE:Epidemiologic study, level III.

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A new weighted injury severity scoring system: Better predictive power for pediatric trauma mortality.

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A new weighted injury severity scoring system: Better predictive power for pediatric trauma mortality.

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