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Using paired serology and surveillance data to quantify dengue transmission and control during a large outbreak in Fiji.

ABSTRACT: Dengue is a major health burden, but it can be challenging to examine transmission and evaluate control measures because outbreaks depend on multiple factors, including human population structure, prior immunity and climate. We combined population-representative paired sera collected before and after the 2013/14 dengue-3 outbreak in Fiji with surveillance data to determine how such factors influence transmission and control in island settings. Our results suggested the 10-19 year-old age group had the highest risk of infection, but we did not find strong evidence that other demographic or environmental risk factors were linked to seroconversion. A mathematical model jointly fitted to surveillance and serological data suggested that herd immunity and seasonally varying transmission could not explain observed dynamics. However, the model showed evidence of an additional reduction in transmission coinciding with a vector clean-up campaign, which may have contributed to the decline in cases in the later stages of the outbreak.

SUBMITTER: Kucharski AJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6092126 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Using paired serology and surveillance data to quantify dengue transmission and control during a large outbreak in Fiji.

Kucharski Adam J AJ Kama Mike M Watson Conall H CH Aubry Maite M Funk Sebastian S Henderson Alasdair D AD Brady Oliver J OJ Vanhomwegen Jessica J Manuguerra Jean-Claude JC Lau Colleen L CL Edmunds W John WJ Aaskov John J Nilles Eric James EJ Cao-Lormeau Van-Mai VM Hué Stéphane S Hibberd Martin L ML

eLife 20180814

Dengue is a major health burden, but it can be challenging to examine transmission and evaluate control measures because outbreaks depend on multiple factors, including human population structure, prior immunity and climate. We combined population-representative paired sera collected before and after the 2013/14 dengue-3 outbreak in Fiji with surveillance data to determine how such factors influence transmission and control in island settings. Our results suggested the 10-19 year-old age group h ...[more]

PMID: 30103854

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Project description:BackgroundSpatial and temporal changes in the dengue incidence are associated with multiple factors, such as climate, immunity among a population against dengue viruses (DENV), circulating DENV serotypes and vertical transmission (VT) of DENV in an area at a given time. The level of VT in a specific location has epidemiological implications in terms of viral maintenance in vectors. Identification of the circulating DENV serotypes in both patients and Aedes mosquito larvae in an area may be useful for the early detection of outbreaks. We report here the results of a prospective descriptive study that was conducted to detect the levels of VT in Aedes mosquito larvae and circulating DENV serotypes in patients and Aedes mosquito larvae from December 2015 to March 2017 in an area of Sri Lanka at high risk for dengue.MethodsA total of 200 patients with clinically suspected dengue who had been admitted to a tertiary care hospital during a dengue outbreak (3 study periods: December 2015-January 2016, June-August 2016, December 2016-January 2017) and in the inter-outbreak periods (February-May 2016 and September-November 2016) were investigated. Blood samples were drawn from the study participants to test for DENV. The houses of the study participants were visited within 7 days of admission to the hospital, and Aedes larvae were also collected within a radius of 400 m from the houses. The larvae were separately identified to species and then pooled according to each patient's identification number. Patients' sera and the Aedes larvae were tested to identify the infecting DENV serotypes using a reverse transcription PCR (RT-PCR) method. Levels of VT in Aedes mosquito larvae were also identified.ResultsAll four DENV serotypes (DENV-1 to -4) were identified in the study area. In the early part of the study (December 2015-February 2016), DENV-3 was predominant and from April 2016 to March 2017, DENV-2 became the most predominant type. Four cases of DENV co-infections were noted during the study period in patients. Interestingly, all four DENV serotypes were detected in Aedes albopictus larvae, which was the prominent immature vectorial form identified throughout the study period in the area, showing 9.8% VT of DENV. With the exception of DENV-4, the other three DENV serotypes were identified in Aedes aegypti larvae with a VT of 8.1%.ConclusionComparatively high rates of VT of DENV was detected in Ae. albopictus and Ae. aegypti larvae. A shift in the predominant DENV serotype with simultaneous circulation of all four DENV serotypes was identified in the study area from December 2015 to March 2017.

Dataset Information

Using paired serology and surveillance data to quantify dengue transmission and control during a large outbreak in Fiji.

Publications

Using paired serology and surveillance data to quantify dengue transmission and control during a large outbreak in Fiji.

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