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Exploring scenarios of chikungunya mitigation with a data-driven agent-based model of the 2014-2016 outbreak in Colombia.

ABSTRACT: New epidemics of infectious diseases can emerge any time, as illustrated by the emergence of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and Zika virus (ZIKV) in Latin America. During new epidemics, public health officials face difficult decisions regarding spatial targeting of interventions to optimally allocate limited resources. We used a large-scale, data-driven, agent-based simulation model (ABM) to explore CHIKV mitigation strategies, including strategies based on previous DENV outbreaks. Our model represents CHIKV transmission in a realistic population of Colombia with 45 million individuals in 10.6 million households, schools, and workplaces. Our model uses high-resolution probability maps for the occurrence of the Ae. aegypti mosquito vector to estimate mosquito density in Colombia. We found that vector control in all 521 municipalities with mosquito populations led to 402,940 fewer clinical cases of CHIKV compared to a baseline scenario without intervention. We also explored using data about previous dengue virus (DENV) epidemics to inform CHIKV mitigation strategies. Compared to the baseline scenario, 314,437 fewer cases occurred when we simulated vector control only in 301 municipalities that had previously reported DENV, illustrating the value of available data from previous outbreaks. When varying the implementation parameters for vector control, we found that faster implementation and scale-up of vector control led to the greatest proportionate reduction in cases. Using available data for epidemic simulations can strengthen decision making against new epidemic threats.

SUBMITTER: Espana G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6093909 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Exploring scenarios of chikungunya mitigation with a data-driven agent-based model of the 2014-2016 outbreak in Colombia.

España Guido G Grefenstette John J Perkins Alex A Torres Claudia C Campo Carey Alfonso A Diaz Hernando H de la Hoz Fernando F Burke Donald S DS van Panhuis Willem G WG

Scientific reports 20180815 1

New epidemics of infectious diseases can emerge any time, as illustrated by the emergence of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and Zika virus (ZIKV) in Latin America. During new epidemics, public health officials face difficult decisions regarding spatial targeting of interventions to optimally allocate limited resources. We used a large-scale, data-driven, agent-based simulation model (ABM) to explore CHIKV mitigation strategies, including strategies based on previous DENV outbreaks. Our model represen ...[more]

PMID: 30111778

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Project description:Biogas plants (BGPs) produce methane and carbon dioxide through the anaerobic digestion of agricultural waste. Identification of strategies for more stable biogas plant operation and increased biogas yields require better knowledge about the individual degradation steps and the interactions within the microbial communities. The metaprotein profiles of ten agricultural BGPs and one laboratory reactor were investigated using a metaproteomics pipeline. Fractionation of samples using SDS-PAGE was combined with a high resolution Orbitrap mass spectrometer, metagenome sequences specific for BGPs, and the MetaProteomeAnalyzer software. This enabled us to achieve a high coverage of the metaproteome of the BGP microbial communities. The investigation revealed approx. 17,000 protein groups (metaproteins), covering the majority of the expected metabolic networks of the biogas process such as hydrolysis, transport, fermentation processes, amino acid metabolism, methanogenesis and bacterial C1-metabolism. Biological functions could be linked with the taxonomic composition. Two different types of BGPs were classified by the abundance of the acetoclastic methanogenesis and by abundance of enzymes implicating syntrophic acetate oxidation. Linking of the identified metaproteins with the process steps of the Anaerobic Digestion Model 1 proved the main model assumptions but indicated also some improvements such as considering syntrophic acetate oxidation. Beside the syntrophic interactions, the microbial communities in BGPs are also shaped by competition for substrates and host-phage interactions causing cell lysis. In particular, larger amounts of Bacteriophages for the bacterial families Bacillaceae, Enterobacteriaceae and Clostridiaceae, exceeding the cell number of the Bacteria by approximately four-fold. In contrast, less Bacteriophages were found for Archaea, but more CRISPR proteins were detected. On the one hand, the virus induced turnover of biomass might cause slow degradation of complex biomass in BGP. On the other hand, the lysis of bacterial cells allows cycling of essential nutrients.

Project description:Chikungunya is a reemerging vector borne pathogen associated with severe morbidity in affected populations. Lamu, along the Kenyan coast was affected by a major chikungunya outbreak in 2004. Twelve years later, we report on entomologic investigations and laboratory confirmed chikungunya cases in northeastern Kenya. Patient blood samples were received at the Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) viral hemorrhagic fever laboratory and the immunoglobulin M enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (IgM ELISA) was used to test for the presence of IgM antibodies against chikungunya and dengue. Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) utilizing flavivirus, alphavirus and chikungunya specific primers were used to detect acute infections and representative PCR positive samples sequenced to confirm the circulating strain. Immature mosquitoes were collected from water-holding containers indoors and outdoors in the affected areas in northeastern Kenya. A total of 189 human samples were tested; 126 from Kenya and 63 from Somalia. 52.9% (100/189) tested positive for Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) by either IgM ELISA or RT-PCR. Sequence analysis of selected samples revealed that the virus was closely related to that from China (2010). 29% (55/189) of the samples, almost all from northeastern Kenya or with a history of travel to northern Kenya, tested positive for dengue IgM antibodies. Entomologic risk assessment revealed high house, container and Breteau indices of, 14.5, 41.9 and 17.1% respectively. Underground water storage tanks were the most abundant, 30.1%, of which 77.4% were infested with Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. These findings confirm the presence of active chikungunya infections in the northeastern parts of Kenya. The detection of dengue IgM antibodies concurrently with chikungunya virus circulation emphasizes on the need for improved surveillance systems and diagnostic algorithms with the capacity to capture multiple causes of arbovirus infections as these two viruses share common vectors and eco-systems. In addition sustained entomological surveillance and vector control programs targeting most productive containers are needed to monitor changes in vector densities, for early detection of the viruses and initiate vector control efforts to prevent possible outbreaks.

Dataset Information

Exploring scenarios of chikungunya mitigation with a data-driven agent-based model of the 2014-2016 outbreak in Colombia.

Publications

Exploring scenarios of chikungunya mitigation with a data-driven agent-based model of the 2014-2016 outbreak in Colombia.

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