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Estimation of lifetime risks of Alzheimer's disease dementia using biomarkers for preclinical disease.


ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION:Lifetime risks are the probabilities of progressing to Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia during one's lifespan. Here, we report the first estimates of the lifetime and ten-year risks of AD dementia based on age, gender, and biomarker tests for preclinical disease. METHODS:We used a multistate model for the disease process together with US death rates. RESULTS:Lifetime risks of AD dementia vary considerably by age, gender, and the preclinical or clinical disease state of the individual. For example, the lifetime risks for a female with only amyloidosis are 8.4% for a 90-year old and 29.3% for a 65-year old. Persons younger than 85 years with mild cognitive impairment, amyloidosis, and neurodegeneration have lifetime risks of AD dementia greater than 50%. DISCUSSION:Most persons with preclinical AD will not develop AD dementia during their lifetimes. Lifetime risks help interpret the clinical significance of biomarker screening tests for AD.

SUBMITTER: Brookmeyer R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6097953 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimation of lifetime risks of Alzheimer's disease dementia using biomarkers for preclinical disease.

Brookmeyer Ron R   Abdalla Nada N  

Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association 20180522 8


<h4>Introduction</h4>Lifetime risks are the probabilities of progressing to Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia during one's lifespan. Here, we report the first estimates of the lifetime and ten-year risks of AD dementia based on age, gender, and biomarker tests for preclinical disease.<h4>Methods</h4>We used a multistate model for the disease process together with US death rates.<h4>Results</h4>Lifetime risks of AD dementia vary considerably by age, gender, and the preclinical or clinical disease  ...[more]

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