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Seasonality and heterogeneity of malaria transmission determine success of interventions in high-endemic settings: a modeling study.

ABSTRACT: Malaria transmission is both seasonal and heterogeneous, and mathematical models that seek to predict the effects of possible intervention strategies should accurately capture realistic seasonality of vector abundance, seasonal dynamics of within-host effects, and heterogeneity of exposure, which may also vary seasonally.Prevalence, incidence, asexual parasite and gametocyte densities, and infectiousness measurements from eight study sites in sub-Saharan Africa were used to calibrate an individual-based model with innate and adaptive immunity. Data from the Garki Project was used to fit exposure rates and parasite densities with month-resolution. A model capturing Garki seasonality and seasonal heterogeneity of exposure was used as a framework for characterizing the infectious reservoir of malaria, testing optimal timing of indoor residual spraying, and comparing four possible mass drug campaign implementations for malaria control.Seasonality as observed in Garki sites is neither sinusoidal nor box-like, and substantial heterogeneity in exposure arises from dry-season biting. Individuals with dry-season exposure likely account for the bulk of the infectious reservoir during the dry season even when they are a minority in the overall population. Spray campaigns offer the most benefit in prevalence reduction when implemented just prior to peak vector abundance, which may occur as late as a couple months into the wet season, and targeting spraying to homes of individuals with dry-season exposure can be particularly effective. Expanding seasonal malaria chemoprevention programs to cover older children is predicted to increase the number of cases averted per treatment and is therefore recommended for settings of seasonal and intense transmission.Accounting for heterogeneity and seasonality in malaria transmission is critical for understanding transmission dynamics and predicting optimal timing and targeting of control and elimination interventions.

SUBMITTER: Selvaraj P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6104018 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Seasonality and heterogeneity of malaria transmission determine success of interventions in high-endemic settings: a modeling study.

Selvaraj Prashanth P Wenger Edward A EA Gerardin Jaline J

BMC infectious diseases 20180822 1

<h4>Background</h4>Malaria transmission is both seasonal and heterogeneous, and mathematical models that seek to predict the effects of possible intervention strategies should accurately capture realistic seasonality of vector abundance, seasonal dynamics of within-host effects, and heterogeneity of exposure, which may also vary seasonally.<h4>Methods</h4>Prevalence, incidence, asexual parasite and gametocyte densities, and infectiousness measurements from eight study sites in sub-Saharan Africa ...[more]

PMID: 30134861

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Project description:IntroductionDuring pregnancy, immunoglobulin G (IgG) is transferred from the mother to the fetus, providing protection from disease in early infancy. Plasmodium falciparum infections may reduce maternofetal antibody transfer efficiency, but mechanisms remain unclear.MethodsMother-cord paired serum samples collected at delivery from Papua New Guinea (PNG) and the Thailand-Myanmar Border Area (TMBA) were tested for IgG1 and IgG3 to four P. falciparum antigens and measles antigen, as well as total serum IgG. Multivariable linear regression was conducted to assess the association of peripheral P. falciparum infection during pregnancy or placental P. falciparum infection assessed at delivery with maternofetal antibody transfer efficiency. Path analysis assessed the extent to which associations between P. falciparum infection and antibody transfer were mediated by gestational age at delivery or levels of maternal total serum IgG.ResultsMaternofetal antibody transfer efficiency of IgG1 and IgG3 was lower in PNG compared to TMBA (mean difference in cord antibody levels (controlling for maternal antibody levels) ranged from -0.88 to 0.09, median of -0.20 log2 units). Placental P. falciparum infections were associated with substantially lower maternofetal antibody transfer efficiency in PNG primigravid women (mean difference in cord antibody levels (controlling for maternal antibody levels) ranged from -0.62 to -0.10, median of -0.36 log2 units), but not multigravid women. The lower antibody transfer efficiency amongst primigravid women with placental infection was only partially mediated by gestational age at delivery (proportion indirect effect ranged from 0% to 18%), whereas no mediation effects of maternal total serum IgG were observed.DiscussionPrimigravid women may be at risk of impaired maternofetal antibody transport with placental P. falciparum infection. Direct effects of P. falciparum on the placenta, rather than earlier gestational age and elevated serum IgG, are likely responsible for the majority of the reduction in maternofetal antibody transfer efficiency with placental infection.

Project description:BackgroundIn malaria-endemic countries, malaria prevention and treatment are critical for child health. In the context of intervention scale-up and rapid changes in endemicity, projections of intervention impact and optimized program scale-up strategies need to take into account the consequent dynamics of transmission and immunity.MethodsThe new Spectrum-Malaria program planning tool was used to project health impacts of Insecticide-Treated mosquito Nets (ITNs) and effective management of uncomplicated malaria cases (CMU), among other interventions, on malaria infection prevalence, case incidence and mortality in children 0-4 years, 5-14 years of age and adults. Spectrum-Malaria uses statistical models fitted to simulations of the dynamic effects of increasing intervention coverage on these burdens as a function of baseline malaria endemicity, seasonality in transmission and malaria intervention coverage levels (estimated for years 2000 to 2015 by the World Health Organization and Malaria Atlas Project). Spectrum-Malaria projections of proportional reductions in under-five malaria mortality were compared with those of the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) for the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia, for given (standardized) scenarios of ITN and/or CMU scale-up over 2016-2030.ResultsProportional mortality reductions over the first two years following scale-up of ITNs from near-zero baselines to moderately higher coverages align well between LiST and Spectrum-Malaria -as expected since both models were fitted to cluster-randomized ITN trials in moderate-to-high-endemic settings with 2-year durations. For further scale-up from moderately high ITN coverage to near-universal coverage (as currently relevant for strategic planning for many countries), Spectrum-Malaria predicts smaller additional ITN impacts than LiST, reflecting progressive saturation. For CMU, especially in the longer term (over 2022-2030) and for lower-endemic settings (like Zambia), Spectrum-Malaria projects larger proportional impacts, reflecting onward dynamic effects not fully captured by LiST.ConclusionsSpectrum-Malaria complements LiST by extending the scope of malaria interventions, program packages and health outcomes that can be evaluated for policy making and strategic planning within and beyond the perspective of child survival.

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Dataset Information

Seasonality and heterogeneity of malaria transmission determine success of interventions in high-endemic settings: a modeling study.

Publications

Seasonality and heterogeneity of malaria transmission determine success of interventions in high-endemic settings: a modeling study.

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