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Does temperature nudging overwhelm aerosol radiative effects in regional integrated climate models?

ABSTRACT: Nudging (data assimilation) is used in many regional integrated meteorology-air quality models to reduce biases in simulated climatology. However, in such modeling systems, temperature changes due to nudging could compete with temperature changes induced by radiatively active and hygroscopic short-lived tracers leading to two interesting dilemmas: when nudging is continuously applied, what are the relative sizes of these two radiative forces at regional and local scales? How do these two forces present in the free atmosphere differ from those present at the surface? This work studies these two issues by converting temperature changes due to nudging into pseudo radiative effects (PRE) at the surface (PRE_sfc), in troposphere (PRE_atm), and at the top of atmosphere (PRE_toa), and comparing PRE with the reported aerosol radiative effects (ARE). Results show that the domain-averaged PRE_sfc is smaller than ARE_sfc estimated in previous studies and this work, but could be significantly larger than ARE_sfc at local scales. PRE_atm is also much smaller than ARE_atm. These results indicate that appropriate nudging methodology could be applied to the integrated models to study aerosol radiative effects at continental/regional scales, but it should be treated with caution for local scale applications.

SUBMITTER: He J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6104850 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Does temperature nudging overwhelm aerosol radiative effects in regional integrated climate models?

He Jian J Glotfelty Timothy T Yahya Khairunnisa K Alapaty Kiran K Yu Shaocai S

Atmospheric environment (Oxford, England : 1994) 20170101

Nudging (data assimilation) is used in many regional integrated meteorology-air quality models to reduce biases in simulated climatology. However, in such modeling systems, temperature changes due to nudging could compete with temperature changes induced by radiatively active and hygroscopic short-lived tracers leading to two interesting dilemmas: when nudging is continuously applied, what are the relative sizes of these two radiative forces at regional and local scales? How do these two forces ...[more]

PMID: 30147426

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Project description:Due to the close relationship between the incidence of infectious diseases by epidemics and environmental conditions, this research explores the temperature, evaporation, precipitation and regional climate effects on the local transmission of coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 inside 31 states and capital of Mexico since February 29 (national onset) to March 31, 2020. Statistical analysis was conducted to explore the association between the daily local COVID-19 confirmed positive cases (LCPC) and both climate characteristics and the daily weather reported by the regional meteorological stations. In this work, the local transmission ratio (LTR) was calculated with the regional LCPC divided by the number of the effective contagion days since regional onset in each state. The results showed a negative association between temperature (mean, max and min) and climate classification with both LCPC and LTR variables. The precipitation associated positively with LCPC and LTR. The associations between the climate classification with LCPC and LTR are statistically significant. The tropical climate (mean temperature around 25.95?°C and mean precipitation around 8.74?mm) delayed the regional onset. However, the regional onset in dry climates emerged earlier as consequence of the lower temperatures and higher precipitations (20.57?°C and 20.87?mm respectively) than the observed in the tropical climate. The fastest regional onsets were observed in tempered climates in states where the lowest temperatures and lowest precipitations were registered (19.65?°C and 8.48?mm respectively). Meteorological factors influenced the trend on the regional outbreaks in Mexican's states likely by the host predisposition and susceptibility during the cold winter season. In Mexico, the climate characteristics played a crucial role on the local infection during the phase 1 being the tempered regions (as Michoacán, Jalisco, Puebla, etc.) more vulnerable than the dry (as Chihuahua, Durango or Zacatecas, etc.) or tropical areas (as Colima, Campeche, Morelos etc.).

Dataset Information

Does temperature nudging overwhelm aerosol radiative effects in regional integrated climate models?

Publications

Does temperature nudging overwhelm aerosol radiative effects in regional integrated climate models?

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