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Assessment of the performance of CORDEX regional climate models in simulating rainfall and air temperature over southwest Ethiopia.

ABSTRACT: This study analyzed the performance of four (REgional MOdel (REMO2009), High-Resolution Hamburg Climate Model 5 (HIRAM5), Climate Limited-Area Modeling Community (CCLM4-8) and Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model (RCA4)) Regional Climate Models (RCMs) simulations from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Africa program. The simulation period of 1985-2005 was evaluated considering how each RCM simulated the observed rainfall and air temperature over southwest Ethiopia. It was found that all the RCMs simulated the seasonal rainfall, but not the peak rainfall, with all models including their ensemble underestimating the peak rainfall. However, the ensemble was better than the individual RCMs in simulating both rainfall and air temperature. All models were slightly biased around a warm climate zone in simulating maximum air temperature when compared to the simulation of air minimum temperature. Of the four RCMs, REMO2009 performed well in simulating the maximum and minimum air temperatures. The interseasonal variation in rainfall was greater than the seasonal variation in air temperature. In terms of cumulative distribution, the HIRAM5 captured more extreme rainfall events and overestimated the return period. Overall, the differences in performance among the RCMs provided strong evidence for the use of regional-scale data at the local scale in climate impact assessments being controversial. In relation to the spatial pattern of the rainfall, most of the models simulated the observed minimum rainfall in the north and northeast, medium rainfall in the central region, and maximum rainfall in the south and southwest of the study area. The overall results indicate that choosing a reliable RCM is fundamentally necessary to delivering a strong basis for any climate-change impact study.

SUBMITTER: Demissie TA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8367805 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundDrug resistance is one of the main reasons of anti-malarial treatment failures and impedes malaria containment strategies. As single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been found to correlate with anti-malarial drug resistance, the surveillance strategy includes continuous monitoring of known molecular markers and detection of new mutation patterns. With the introduction of artemisinin-based combination therapy, selection of specific patterns has been observed worldwide.MethodsFrom March to June 2013, whole blood was collected on filter paper from microscopically malaria positive patients in Jimma zone (District), southwestern Ethiopia. Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax and mixed infections were included. SNPs were investigated by conventional or real-time PCR, restriction fragment length pattern analysis or sequencing. Results were compared to molecular patterns from Ethiopian isolates in 2004, 2006 and 2008/9.ResultsPlasmodium falciparum, P. vivax, and mixed infections were molecularly confirmed in 177, 80, and 14 samples, respectively. In P. falciparum, mutations in the pfcrt, pfmdr 1and pfATP 6 (SERCA) gene were investigated. Whereas the mutation in the pfcrt gene at codon 76 K was still found in 95.6% of all samples, the pfmdr 1 86 T mutation fell to 1.2% (2/163) in 2013 compared to 9% in 2008/9 and 86% in 2006 (P<0.001). The pfmdr 1 184 F mutation dominated with 100.0% (172/172) in 2013. Sequencing of the recently reported PF3D7_1343700 kelch propeller domain showed no mutation at codon 476. First sequencing data of the pvmdr 1 gene from Jimma region revealed a prevalence of the mutations 976 F and 1076 L in 72.7% (16/23) and 100.0% (19/19) of the isolates, respectively.ConclusionSince the introduction of artemether-lumefantrine (AL) in Jimma, Ethiopia, in 2006, the prevalence of certain SNPs associated with AL use has increased. Markers for chloroquine resistance in P. vivax were highly frequent. Continuous molecular and clinical surveillance are of paramount importance.

Project description:Climate change is a significant driver of water resource availability, affecting the magnitude of surface runoff, aquifer recharge, and river flows. This study investigated the impact of climate change on hydrological processes within the Gilgel Gibe catchment and aimed to determine the level of exposure of water resources to these changes, which is essential for future adaptability planning. To achieve this objective, an ensemble mean of six regional climate models (RCMs) from the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX)-Africa was used to simulate future climatic scenarios. The RCMs outputs were then bias corrected using distribution mapping to match observed precipitation and temperature. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to assess the hydrological impacts of climate change on the catchment. The results indicated that the ensemble mean of the six RCMs projects a decline in precipitation and an increase in temperature under both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 representative concentration pathways. Moreover, the increases in both maximum and minimum temperatures are higher for higher emission scenarios, indicating that RCP8.5 is warmer than RCP4.5. The projected climate change shows a decrease in surface runoff, groundwater, and water yield, resulting in an overall decline of annual flow. This decline is mainly due to the reduction in seasonal flows driven by climate change scenarios. The changes in precipitation range from -11.2% to -14.3% under RCP4.5 and from -9.2% to -10.0% under RCP8.5, while the changes in temperature range from 1.7°C to 2.5°C under RCP4.5 and from 1.8°C to 3.6°C under RCP8.5. These changes could lead to reduced water availability for crop production, which could be a chronic issue for subsistence agriculture. Additionally, the reduction of surface water and groundwater could further exacerbate water stress in the downstream areas, affecting the availability of water resources in the catchment. Furthermore, the increasing demands for water, driven by population growth and socioeconomic progress, along with the variability in temperature and evaporation demands, will amplify prolonged water scarcity. Therefore, robust climate-resilient water management policies are indispensable to manage these risks. In conclusion, this study highlights the importance of considering the impact of climate change on hydrological processes and the need for proactive adaptation measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change on water resources.

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Assessment of the performance of CORDEX regional climate models in simulating rainfall and air temperature over southwest Ethiopia.

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