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Comparison of the flexible parametric survival model and Cox model in estimating Markov transition probabilities using real-world data.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE:Markov micro-simulation models are being increasingly used in health economic evaluations. An important feature of the Markov micro-simulation model is its ability to consider transition probabilities of heterogeneous subgroups with different risk profiles. A survival analysis is generally performed to accurately estimate the transition probabilities associated with the risk profiles. This study aimed to apply a flexible parametric survival model (FPSM) to estimate individual transition probabilities. MATERIALS AND METHODS:The data were obtained from a cohort study investigating ischemic stroke outcomes in Western China. In total, 585 subjects were included in the analysis. To explore the goodness of fit of the FPSM, we compared the estimated hazard ratios and baseline cumulative hazards, both of which are necessary to the calculate individual transition probabilities, and the Markov micro-simulation models constructed using the FPSM and Cox model to determine the validity of the two Markov micro-simulation models and cost-effectiveness results. RESULTS:The flexible parametric proportional hazards model produced hazard ratio and baseline cumulative hazard estimates that were similar to those obtained using the Cox proportional hazards model. The simulated cumulative incidence of recurrent ischemic stroke and 5-years cost-effectiveness of Incremental cost-effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) were also similar using the two approaches. A discrepancy in the results was evident between the 5-years cost-effectiveness and the 10-years cost-effectiveness of ICERs, which were approximately 0.9 million (China Yuan) and 0.5 million (China Yuan), respectively. CONCLUSIONS:The flexible parametric survival model represents a good approach for estimating individual transition probabilities for a Markov micro-simulation model.

SUBMITTER: Du X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6104919 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:This study assessed the lifetime cost-effectiveness of a fracture liaison service (FLS) compared to no-FLS in the Netherlands from a societal perspective and suggested that FLS was cost-effective in patients with a recent fracture aged 50 years and older. The implementation of FLS could lead to lifetime health-economic benefits.IntroductionThe objective of this study was to investigate the lifetime cost-effectiveness of a fracture liaison service (FLS) compared to no-FLS in the Netherlands from a societal perspective and using real-world data.MethodsAnnual fracture incidence, treatment scenarios as well as treatment initiation in the years 2017-2019 were collected from a large secondary care hospital in the Netherlands. An individual-level, state transition model was designed to simulate lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Treatment pathways were differentiated by gender, presence of osteoporosis and/or prevalent vertebral fracture, and treatment status. Results were presented as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER). Both one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted.ResultsFor patients with a recent fracture aged 50 years and older, the presence of an FLS was associated with a lifetime €45 higher cost and 0.11 additional QALY gained leading to an ICER of €409 per QALY gained, indicating FLS was cost-effective compared to no-FLS at the Dutch threshold of €20,000/QALY. The FLS remained cost-effectiveness across different age categories. Our findings were robust in all one-way sensitivity analyses, the higher the treatment initiation rate in FLS, the greater the cost-effective of FLS. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses revealed that FLS was cost-effective in 90% of the simulations at the threshold of €20,000/QALY, with women 92% versus men 84% by gender.ConclusionThis study provides the first health-economic analysis of FLS in the Netherlands, suggesting the implementation of FLS could lead to lifetime health-economic benefits.

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Comparison of the flexible parametric survival model and Cox model in estimating Markov transition probabilities using real-world data.

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