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Real-world rogue wave probabilities.

ABSTRACT: Rogue waves are dangerous ocean waves at least twice as high as the surrounding waves. Despite an abundance of studies conducting simulations or wave tank experiments, there is so far no reliable forecast for them. In this study, we use data mining and interpretable machine learning to analyze large amounts of observational data instead (more than 1 billion waves). This reveals how rogue wave occurrence depends on the sea state. We find that traditionally favored parameters such as surface elevation kurtosis, steepness, and Benjamin-Feir index are weak predictors for real-world rogue wave risk. In the studied regime, kurtosis is only informative within a single wave group, and is not useful for forecasting. Instead, crest-trough correlation is the dominating parameter in all studied conditions, water depths, and locations, explaining about a factor of 10 in rogue wave risk variation. For rogue crests, where bandwidth effects are unimportant, we find that skewness, steepness, and Ursell number are the strongest predictors, in line with second-order theory. Our results suggest that linear superposition in bandwidth-limited seas is the main pathway to "everyday" rogue waves, with nonlinear contributions providing a minor correction. This casts some doubt whether the common rogue wave definition as any wave exceeding a certain height threshold is meaningful in practice.

SUBMITTER: Hafner D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8115049 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:An asymmetric pair of coupled nonlinear Schrödinger (CNLS) equations has been derived through a multiscale perturbation method applied to a plasma fluid model, in which two wavepackets of distinct (carrier) wavenumbers ([Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]) and amplitudes ([Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]) are allowed to co-propagate and interact. The original fluid model was set up for a non-magnetized plasma consisting of cold inertial ions evolving against a [Formula: see text]-distributed electron background in one dimension. The reduction procedure resulting in the CNLS equations has provided analytical expressions for the dispersion, self-modulation and cross-coupling coefficients in terms of the two carrier wavenumbers. These coefficients present no symmetry whatsoever, in the general case (of different wavenumbers). The possibility for coupled envelope (vector soliton) solutions to occur has been investigated. Although the CNLS equations are asymmetric and non-integrable, in principle, the system admits various types of vector soliton solutions, physically representing nonlinear, localized electrostatic plasma modes, whose areas of existence is calculated on the wavenumbers' parameter plane. The possibility for either bright (B) or dark (D) type excitations for either of the (2) waves provides four (4) combinations for the envelope pair (BB, BD, DB, DD), if a set of explicit criteria is satisfied. Moreover, the soliton parameters (maximum amplitude, width) are also calculated for each type of vector soliton solution, in its respective area of existence. The dependence of the vector soliton characteristics on the (two) carrier wavenumbers and on the spectral index [Formula: see text] characterizing the electron distribution has been explored. In certain cases, the (envelope) amplitude of one component may exceed its counterpart (second amplitude) by a factor 2.5 or higher, indicating that extremely asymmetric waves may be formed due to modulational interactions among copropagating wavepackets. As [Formula: see text] decreases from large values, modulational instability occurs in larger areas of the parameter plane(s) and with higher growth rates. The distribution of different types of vector solitons on the parameter plane(s) also varies significantly with decreasing [Formula: see text], and in fact dramatically for [Formula: see text] between 3 and 2. Deviation from the Maxwell-Boltzmann picture therefore seems to favor modulational instability as a precursor to the formation of bright (predominantly) type envelope excitations and freak waves.

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Real-world rogue wave probabilities.

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