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Population Serologic Immunity to Human and Avian H2N2 Viruses in the United States and Hong Kong for Pandemic Risk Assessment.

ABSTRACT: Background:Influenza A pandemics cause significant mortality and morbidity. H2N2 viruses have caused a prior pandemic, and are circulating in avian reservoirs. The age-related frequency of current population immunity to H2 viruses was evaluated. Methods:Hemagglutinin inhibition (HAI) assays against historical human and recent avian influenza A(H2N2) viruses were performed across age groups in Rochester, New York, and Hong Kong, China. The impact of existing cross-reactive HAI immunity on the effective reproduction number was modeled. Results:One hundred fifty individual sera from Rochester and 295 from Hong Kong were included. Eighty-five percent of patients born in Rochester and Hong Kong before 1968 had HAI titers ≥1:40 against A/Singapore/1/57, and >50% had titers ≥1:40 against A/Berkeley/1/68. The frequency of titers ≥1:40 to avian H2N2 A/mallard/England/727/06 and A/mallard/Netherlands/14/07 in subjects born before 1957 was 62% and 24%, respectively. There were no H2 HAI titers >1:40 in individuals born after 1968. These levels of seroprevalence reduce the initial reproduction number of A/Singapore/1/1957 or A/Berkeley/1/68 by 15%-20%. A basic reproduction number (R0) of the emerging transmissible virus <1.2 predicts a preventable pandemic. Conclusions:Population immunity to H2 viruses is insufficient to block epidemic spread of H2 virus. An H2N2 pandemic would have lower impact in those born before 1968.

SUBMITTER: Babu TM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6107991 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ImportanceThe current opioid abuse epidemic in the United States requires evaluation of prescribing practices within all medical specialties. This examination includes a review of postoperative pain management for patients undergoing major head and neck procedures.ObjectiveTo report differences in postoperative pain regimens between an international and domestic head and neck surgical program.Design, setting, and participantsPain management patterns after head and neck surgery in the programs at Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) and Oregon Health and Science University (OHSU) were compared with a focus on opioids, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), acetaminophen or paracetamol, and anxiolytics. Cases from July 1, 2013, through August 31, 2017, were reviewed. Standing medication orders the day before surgery (PRE1), postoperative day 6 (POD6), and postoperative day 14 (POD14) were compared between institutions.ExposuresHead and neck surgery.ResultsA total of 253 cases from CUHK and 567 cases from OHSU were analyzed (mean [SD] age, 59.4 [14.3] and 60.1 [16.4] years, respectively). Patients from OHSU had a significantly higher frequency of opioid orders on PRE1 (15.3% vs 1.6%; odds ratio [OR], 11.3; 95% CI, 4.09-31.10), POD6 (86.8% vs 0.4%; OR, 1653.12; 95% CI, 228.51-11?959.01), and POD14 (71.4% vs 0.8%; OR, 313.75; 95% CI, 77.12-1276.52). There were no significant differences in acetaminophen or paracetamol, NSAID, or anxiolytic orders between institutions. Institution was the most significant indicator for the presence of opioid orders on POD6 (OR, 4271.10; 95% CI, 380.04-47 999.70) and POD14 (OR, 330.35; 95% CI, 79.67-1369.82). In addition to treating institution, multivariate analysis showed that PRE1 opioid orders indicated a significant increase in likelihood of opioid orders on POD6 (OR, 4.77; 95% CI, 1.23-18.57) but not POD14. POD6 anxiolytic orders remained a significant indicator of opioid orders for POD6 (95% CI, 1.49-113.10) and POD14 (95% CI, 1.17-5.03), respectively.Conclusions and relevanceA significantly lower frequency of postoperative opioid orders was observed from CUHK compared with OHSU across similar major head and neck procedures. This contrast encourages a careful examination of (1) cultural and patient expectations of pain control, (2) the metrics by which control is assessed, (3) industry and economic drivers of opioid use, and (4) alternatives to opioid pain regimens. A thoughtful shift in postoperative pain protocols that deemphasizes opioid use may be an opportunity to counter the epidemic of opioid abuse in the United States.

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Population Serologic Immunity to Human and Avian H2N2 Viruses in the United States and Hong Kong for Pandemic Risk Assessment.

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