Dataset Information

Predictions of Preterm Birth from Early Pregnancy Characteristics: Born in Guangzhou Cohort Study.

ABSTRACT: Preterm birth (PTB, <37 weeks) is the leading cause of death in children <5 years of age. Early risk prediction for PTB would enable early monitoring and intervention. However, such prediction models have been rarely reported, especially in low- and middle-income areas. We used data on a number of easily accessible predictors during early pregnancy from 9044 women in Born in Guangzhou Cohort Study, China to generate prediction models for overall PTB and spontaneous, iatrogenic, late (34?36 weeks), and early (<34 weeks) PTB. Models were constructed using the Cox proportional hazard model, and their performance was evaluated by Harrell's c and D statistics and calibration plot. We further performed a systematic review to identify published models and validated them in our population. Our new prediction models had moderate discrimination, with Harrell's c statistics ranging from 0.60?0.66 for overall and subtypes of PTB. Significant predictors included maternal age, height, history of preterm delivery, amount of vaginal bleeding, folic acid intake before pregnancy, and passive smoking during pregnancy. Calibration plots showed good fit for all models except for early PTB. We validated three published models, all of which were from studies conducted in high-income countries; the area under receiver operating characteristic for these models ranged from 0.50 to 0.56. Based on early pregnancy characteristics, our models have moderate predictive ability for PTB. Future studies should consider inclusion of laboratory markers for the prediction of PTB.

SUBMITTER: He JR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6111770 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predictions of Preterm Birth from Early Pregnancy Characteristics: Born in Guangzhou Cohort Study.

He Jian-Rong JR Ramakrishnan Rema R Lai Yu-Mian YM Li Wei-Dong WD Zhao Xuan X Hu Yan Y Chen Nian-Nian NN Hu Fang F Lu Jin-Hua JH Wei Xue-Ling XL Yuan Ming-Yang MY Shen Song-Ying SY Qiu Lan L Chen Qiao-Zhu QZ Hu Cui-Yue CY Cheng Kar Keung KK Mol Ben Willem J BWJ Xia Hui-Min HM Qiu Xiu X

Journal of clinical medicine 20180727 8

Preterm birth (PTB, <37 weeks) is the leading cause of death in children <5 years of age. Early risk prediction for PTB would enable early monitoring and intervention. However, such prediction models have been rarely reported, especially in low- and middle-income areas. We used data on a number of easily accessible predictors during early pregnancy from 9044 women in Born in Guangzhou Cohort Study, China to generate prediction models for overall PTB and spontaneous, iatrogenic, late (34⁻36 weeks ...[more]

PMID: 30060450

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Project description:BackgroundPreterm birth (occurring before 37 completed weeks of gestation) affects 15 million infants annually, 7.5% of which die due to related complications. The detection and early diagnosis are therefore paramount in order to prevent the development of prematurity and its consequences. So far, focus has been laid on the association between reduced intrauterine fetal growth during late gestation and prematurity. The aim of the current study was to investigate the association between accelerated fetal growth in early pregnancy and the risk of preterm birth.MethodsThis prospective cohort study included 69,617 singleton pregnancies without congenital malformations and with available biometric measurements during the first and second trimester. Estimation of fetal growth was based on measurements of biparietal diameter (BPD) at first and second trimester scan. We investigated the association between accelerated fetal growth and preterm birth prior to 37?weeks of gestation. The outcome was further stratified into very preterm birth (before 32?weeks of gestation) or moderate preterm birth (between 32 and 37?weeks of gestation) and medically induced or spontaneous preterm birth and was further explored.ResultsThe odds of prematurity were increased among fetuses with accelerated BPD growth (> 90th centile) estimated between first and second ultrasound scan, even after adjustment for possible confounders (aOR 1.36; 95% CI 1.20-1.54). The findings remained significant what regards moderate preterm births but not very preterm births. Regarding medically induced preterm birth, the odds were found to be elevated in the group of fetuses with accelerated growth in early pregnancy (aOR 1.34; 95% CI 1.11-1.63). On the contrary, fetuses with delayed fetal growth exhibited lower odds for both overall and spontaneous preterm birth.ConclusionsFetuses with accelerated BPD growth in early pregnancy, detected by ultrasound examination during the second trimester, exhibited increased odds of being born preterm. The findings of the current study suggest that fetal growth in early pregnancy should be taken into account when assessing the risk for preterm birth.

Project description:BackgroundPreterm birth (PTB) remains a leading cause of neonatal mortality and long-term morbidity. Individual factors have been linked to PTB risk. The impact of a healthy lifestyle, with multiple modifiable prenatal factors, remains unknown.ObjectivesWe aimed to examine the associations of preconceptional and early-pregnancy low-risk modifiable factors (individually and in combination) with PTB risk.MethodsThis prospective cohort study included 2449 women with singleton pregnancies in the Pregnancy Environment and Lifestyle Study. PTB was defined as ultrasound-confirmed obstetric estimate-based gestational age at delivery <37 wk. A set of low-risk modifiable factors were identified: healthy weight (prepregnancy BMI: 18.5-24.9 kg/m2) based on clinical measurements and high-quality diet (Alternate Healthy Eating Index-Pregnancy score ≥75th percentile) and low-to-moderate stress during early pregnancy (Perceived Stress Scale score <75th percentile) assessed at gestational weeks 10-13. Poisson regression estimated adjusted relative risk (aRR) of PTB in association with individual and combined low-risk modifiable prenatal factors, adjusting for sociodemographic, clinical, and other prenatal factors.ResultsOne hundred and sixty women (6.5%) delivered preterm. Risk of PTB was lower among women who had a healthy weight (aRR: 0.58; 95% CI: 0.39, 0.86), high-quality diet (aRR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.39, 0.99), and low-to-moderate stress (aRR: 0.60; 95% CI: 0.41, 0.88). Women with 1, 2, or 3 low-risk modifiable prenatal factors compared with none had a 38% (aRR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.45, 1.16), 51% (aRR: 0.49; 95% CI: 0.29, 0.84), or 70% (aRR: 0.30; 95% CI: 0.13, 0.70) lower PTB risk, respectively. Associations of having ≥1 low-risk factor with PTB risk were more pronounced for medically indicated than for spontaneous PTB and for late than for early or moderate PTB. Associations also varied by race or ethnicity, although with overlapping 95% CIs.ConclusionsA healthy prenatal lifestyle with multiple low-risk modifiable factors was associated with lower risk of PTB. Our findings may inform multicomponent preconceptional or early-pregnancy prevention strategies to mitigate PTB risk.

Project description:Despite decades of attempts to link infectious agents to preterm birth, an exact causative microbe or community of microbes remains elusive. Nonculture 16S ribosomal RNA gene sequencing suggests important racial differences and pregnancy specific changes in the vaginal microbial communities. A recent study examining the association of the vaginal microbiome and preterm birth documented important findings but was performed in a predominantly white cohort. Given the important racial differences in bacterial communities within the vagina as well as persistent racial disparities in preterm birth, it is important to examine cohorts with varied demographic compositions.To characterize vaginal microbial community characteristics in a large, predominantly African-American, longitudinal cohort of pregnant women and test whether particular vaginal microbial community characteristics are associated with the risk for subsequent preterm birth.This is a nested case-control study within a prospective cohort study of women with singleton pregnancies, not on supplemental progesterone, and without cervical cerclage in situ. Serial mid-vaginal swabs were obtained by speculum exam at their routine prenatal visits. Sequencing of the V1V3 region of the 16S rRNA gene was performed on the Roche 454 platform. Alpha diversity community characteristics including richness, Shannon diversity, and evenness as well as beta diversity metrics including Bray Curtis Dissimilarity and specific taxon abundance were compared longitudinally in women who delivered preterm to those who delivered at term.A total of 77 subjects contributed 149 vaginal swabs longitudinally across pregnancy. Participants were predominantly African-American (69%) and had a preterm birth rate of 31%. In subjects with subsequent term delivery, the vaginal microbiome demonstrated stable community richness and Shannon diversity, whereas subjects with subsequent preterm delivery had significantly decreased vaginal richness, diversity, and evenness during pregnancy (P < .01). This change occurred between the first and second trimesters. Within-subject comparisons across pregnancy showed that preterm birth is associated with increased vaginal microbiome instability compared to term birth. No distinct taxa were associated with preterm birth.In a predominantly African-American population, a significant decrease of vaginal microbial community richness and diversity is associated with preterm birth. The timing of this suppression appears early in pregnancy, between the first and second trimesters, suggesting that early gestation may be an ecologically important time for events that ordain subsequent term and preterm birth outcomes.

Project description:Background: Sub-Saharan Africa bears a disproportionate burden of preterm birth and other adverse outcomes. A better understanding of the demographic, clinical, and biologic underpinnings of these adverse outcomes is urgently needed to plan interventions and inform new discovery. Methods: The Zambian Preterm Birth Prevention Study (ZAPPS) is a prospective observational cohort established at the Women and Newborn Hospital (WNH) in Lusaka, Zambia. We recruit pregnant women from district health centers and the WNH and offer ultrasound examination to determine eligibility. Participants receive routine obstetrical care, lab testing, midtrimester cervical length measurement, and serial fetal growth monitoring. At delivery, we assess gestational age, birthweight, vital status, and sex and assign a delivery phenotype. We collect blood, urine, and vaginal swab specimens at scheduled visits and store them in an on-site biorepository. In September 2017, enrollment of the ZAPPS Phase 1-the subject of this report-was completed. Phase 2, which is limited to HIV-uninfected women, reopened in January 2018. Results: Between August 2015 and September 2017, we screened 1784 women, of whom 1450 (81.2%) met inclusion criteria and were enrolled. The median age at enrollment was 27 years (IQR 23-32) and median gestational age was 16 weeks (IQR 13-18). Among women with a previous pregnancy (n=1042), 19% (n=194) reported a prior miscarriage. Among parous women (n=992), 41% (n=411) reported a prior preterm birth and 14% (n=126) reported a prior stillbirth. The HIV seroprevalence was 24%. Discussion: We have established a large cohort of pregnant women and newborns at the WNH to characterize the determinants of adverse birth outcomes in Lusaka, Zambia. Our overarching goal is to elucidate biological mechanisms in an effort to identify new strategies for early detection and prevention of adverse outcomes. We hope that findings from this cohort will help guide future studies, clinical care, and policy.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Melatonin stimulates the production of progesterone, which is essential for the maintenance of pregnancy. Since melatonin in blood is reduced due to work under illuminated conditions during night work, it has been hypothesized that night work may increase the risk of preterm birth. Previous meta-analyses have not revealed increased risk of preterm birth in women working night shifts during pregnancy. Still, these studies might have been limited by inaccurate self-reports of timing, intensity and duration of night work most likely causing bias towards the null. The aim of this is study was to investigate if the frequency and duration of night work during the first (week 1-12) and second (week 13-22) trimester of pregnancy were associated with risk of preterm birth when objective and prospective data on night work are used. METHOD:In a register-based prospective cohort study, we obtained individual day-to-day information on working hours from The Danish Working Hour Database (DWHD, a payroll database including all public service employees in administrative Danish Regions from 2007-2013) and information on preterm birth from the Danish Medical Birth Registry. Night-shift was defined as at least three working hours between 23:00 and 06:00. Preterm birth was defined as giving birth during gestational weeks 23-37. Odds of preterm birth according to working night shifts were analysed by logistic regression. RESULTS:We identified 16,501 pregnant women eligible for the study, of which 10,202 women (61.8%) had at least one night-shift during the first 22 gestational weeks. The risk of preterm birth was not elevated among women working night shifts compared to women working only day shifts during either the first or second trimester. Within night-shift workers, the risk was not related to the number of night shifts, the duration of night shifts, consecutive night shifts or quick returns defined as short intervals between shifts. Odds of preterm birth was not related to change of working schedule from the first to second trimester, although women changing from night shifts in the first trimester to day work only in the second trimester displayed a weak increased odds of preterm birth (OR 1.21, 95%CI 0.98-1.49) compared to women working night shifts in both trimesters. CONCLUSION:Our results, which are without bias from self-report of either exposure or outcome, are in line with the results of previous meta-analyses. Due to the detailed information on hours worked during pregnancy, we were able to investigate several dimensions of night work not previously investigated, of which none were associated with elevated risk of preterm birth.

Dataset Information

Predictions of Preterm Birth from Early Pregnancy Characteristics: Born in Guangzhou Cohort Study.

Publications

Predictions of Preterm Birth from Early Pregnancy Characteristics: Born in Guangzhou Cohort Study.

Similar Datasets

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