Dataset Information

Acute Brain Dysfunction: Development and Validation of a Daily Prediction Model.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The goal of this study was to develop and validate a dynamic risk model to predict daily changes in acute brain dysfunction (ie, delirium and coma), discharge, and mortality in ICU patients.

Methods

Using data from a multicenter prospective ICU cohort, a daily acute brain dysfunction-prediction model (ABD-pm) was developed by using multinomial logistic regression that estimated 15 transition probabilities (from one of three brain function states [normal, delirious, or comatose] to one of five possible outcomes [normal, delirious, comatose, ICU discharge, or died]) using baseline and daily risk factors. Model discrimination was assessed by using predictive characteristics such as negative predictive value (NPV). Calibration was assessed by plotting empirical vs model-estimated probabilities. Internal validation was performed by using a bootstrap procedure.

Results

Data were analyzed from 810 patients (6,711 daily transitions). The ABD-pm included individual risk factors: mental status, age, preexisting cognitive impairment, baseline and daily severity of illness, and daily administration of sedatives. The model yielded very high NPVs for "next day" delirium (NPV: 0.823), coma (NPV: 0.892), normal cognitive state (NPV: 0.875), ICU discharge (NPV: 0.905), and mortality (NPV: 0.981). The model demonstrated outstanding calibration when predicting the total number of patients expected to be in any given state across predicted risk.

Conclusions

We developed and internally validated a dynamic risk model that predicts the daily risk for one of three cognitive states, ICU discharge, or mortality. The ABD-pm may be useful for predicting the proportion of patients for each outcome state across entire ICU populations to guide quality, safety, and care delivery activities.

SUBMITTER: Marra A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6113630 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Acute Brain Dysfunction: Development and Validation of a Daily Prediction Model.

Marra Annachiara A Pandharipande Pratik P PP Shotwell Matthew S MS Chandrasekhar Rameela R Girard Timothy D TD Shintani Ayumi K AK Peelen Linda M LM Moons Karl G M KGM Dittus Robert S RS Ely E Wesley EW Vasilevskis Eduard E EE

Chest 20180324 2

<h4>Background</h4>The goal of this study was to develop and validate a dynamic risk model to predict daily changes in acute brain dysfunction (ie, delirium and coma), discharge, and mortality in ICU patients.<h4>Methods</h4>Using data from a multicenter prospective ICU cohort, a daily acute brain dysfunction-prediction model (ABD-pm) was developed by using multinomial logistic regression that estimated 15 transition probabilities (from one of three brain function states [normal, delirious, or c ...[more]

PMID: 29580772

Similar Datasets

Project description:Background and Objectives: Acute kidney injury (AKI) that results from ischemia is a common clinical syndrome and correlates with high morbidity and mortality among hospitalized patients. However, a clinical tool to predict mortality risk of ischemic AKI is not available. In this study, we aimed to develop and validate models to predict the 30-day and 1-year mortality risk of hospitalized patients with ischemic AKI. Methods A total of 1,836 admissions with ischemic AKI were recruited from 277,898 inpatients admitted to three affiliated tertiary general hospitals of Central South University in China between January 2015 and December 2015. Patients in the final analysis were followed up for 1 year. Study patients were randomly divided in a 7:3 ratio to form the training cohort and validation cohort. Multivariable regression analyses were used for developing mortality prediction models. Results Hepatorenal syndrome, shock, central nervous system failure, Charlson comorbidity index (≥2 points), mechanical ventilation, renal function at discharge were independent risk factors for 30-day mortality after ischemic AKI, while malignancy, sepsis, heart failure, liver failure, Charlson comorbidity index (≥2 points), mechanical ventilation, and renal function at discharge were predictors for 1-year mortality. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of 30-day prediction model were 0.878 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.849-0.908) in the training cohort and 0.867 (95% CI: 0.820–0.913) in the validation cohort. The AUROCs of the 1-year mortality prediction in the training and validation cohort were 0.803 (95% CI: 0.772–0.834) and 0.788 (95% CI: 0.741–0.835), respectively. Conclusion Our easily applied prediction models can effectively identify individuals at high mortality risk within 30 days or 1 year in hospitalized patients with ischemic AKI. It can guide the optimal clinical management to minimize mortality after an episode of ischemic AKI.

Project description:ObjectiveWe aimed to analyze the risk factors affecting all-cause mortality in diabetic patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) and to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting the 90-day survival rate of patients.MethodsClinical data of diabetic patients with AKI who were diagnosed at The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University from April 30, 2011, to April 30, 2021, were collected. A total of 1,042 patients were randomly divided into a development cohort and a validation cohort at a ratio of 7:3. The primary study endpoint was all-cause death within 90 days of AKI diagnosis. Clinical parameters and demographic characteristics were analyzed using Cox regression to develop a prediction model for survival in diabetic patients with AKI, and a nomogram was then constructed. The concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic curve, and calibration plot were used to evaluate the prediction model.ResultsThe development cohort enrolled 730 patients with a median follow-up time of 87 (40-98) days, and 86 patients (11.8%) died during follow-up. The 90-day survival rate was 88.2% (644/730), and the recovery rate for renal function in survivors was 32.9% (212/644). Multivariate analysis showed that advanced age (HR = 1.064, 95% CI = 1.043-1.085), lower pulse pressure (HR = 0.964, 95% CI = 0.951-0.977), stage 3 AKI (HR = 4.803, 95% CI = 1.678-13.750), lower 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (HR = 0.944, 95% CI = 0.930-0.960), and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (HR = 2.056, 95% CI = 1.287-3.286) were independent risk factors affecting the all-cause death of diabetic patients with AKI (all p < 0.01). The C-indices of the prediction cohort and the validation cohort were 0.880 (95% CI = 0.839-0.921) and 0.798 (95% CI = 0.720-0.876), respectively. The calibration plot of the model showed excellent consistency between the prediction probability and the actual probability.ConclusionWe developed a new prediction model that has been internally verified to have good discrimination, calibration, and clinical value for predicting the 90-day survival rate of diabetic patients with AKI.

Dataset Information

Acute Brain Dysfunction: Development and Validation of a Daily Prediction Model.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Acute Brain Dysfunction: Development and Validation of a Daily Prediction Model.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets