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Medication Side Effects and Retention in HIV Treatment: A Regression Discontinuity Study of Tenofovir Implementation in South Africa and Zambia.

ABSTRACT: Tenofovir is less toxic than other nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors used in antiretroviral therapy (ART) and may improve retention of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients on ART. We assessed the impact of national guideline changes in South Africa (2010) and Zambia (2007) recommending tenofovir for first-line ART. We applied regression discontinuity in a prospective cohort study of 52,294 HIV-infected adults initiating first-line ART within 12 months (±12 months) of each guideline change. We compared outcomes in patients presenting just before and after the guideline changes using local linear regression and estimated intention-to-treat effects on initiation of tenofovir, retention in care, and other treatment outcomes at 24 months. We assessed complier causal effects among patients starting tenofovir. The new guidelines increased the percentages of patients initiating tenofovir in South Africa (risk difference (RD) = 81 percentage points, 95% confidence interval (CI): 73, 89) and Zambia (RD = 42 percentage points, 95% CI: 38, 45). With the guideline change, the percentage of single-drug substitutions decreased substantially in South Africa (RD = -15 percentage points, 95% CI: -18, -12). Starting tenofovir also reduced attrition in Zambia (intent-to-treat RD = -1.8% (95% CI: -3.5, -0.1); complier relative risk = 0.74) but not in South Africa (RD = -0.9% (95% CI: -5.9, 4.1); complier relative risk = 0.94). These results highlight the importance of reducing side effects for increasing retention in care, as well as the differences in population impact of policies with heterogeneous treatment effects implemented in different contexts.

SUBMITTER: Brennan AT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6118076 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Medication Side Effects and Retention in HIV Treatment: A Regression Discontinuity Study of Tenofovir Implementation in South Africa and Zambia.

Brennan Alana T AT Bor Jacob J Davies Mary-Ann MA Wandeler Gilles G Prozesky Hans H Fatti Geoffrey G Wood Robin R Stinson Kathryn K Tanser Frank F Bärnighausen Till T Boulle Andrew A Sikazwe Izukanji I Zanolini Arianna A Fox Matthew P MP

American journal of epidemiology 20180901 9

Tenofovir is less toxic than other nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors used in antiretroviral therapy (ART) and may improve retention of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients on ART. We assessed the impact of national guideline changes in South Africa (2010) and Zambia (2007) recommending tenofovir for first-line ART. We applied regression discontinuity in a prospective cohort study of 52,294 HIV-infected adults initiating first-line ART within 12 months (±12 months) of ea ...[more]

PMID: 29767681

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Project description:BackgroundLoss to follow-up is high among HIV patients not yet receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). Clinical trials have demonstrated the clinical efficacy of early ART; however, these trials may miss an important real-world consequence of providing ART at diagnosis: its impact on retention in care.Methods and findingsWe examined the effect of immediate (versus deferred) ART on retention in care using a regression discontinuity design. The analysis included all patients (N = 11,306) entering clinical HIV care with a first CD4 count between 12 August 2011 and 31 December 2012 in a public-sector HIV care and treatment program in rural South Africa. Patients were assigned to immediate versus deferred ART eligibility, as determined by a CD4 count < 350 cells/μl, per South African national guidelines. Patients referred to pre-ART care were instructed to return every 6 months for CD4 monitoring. Patients initiated on ART were instructed to return at 6 and 12 months post-initiation and annually thereafter for CD4 and viral load monitoring. We assessed retention in HIV care at 12 months, as measured by the presence of a clinic visit, lab test, or ART initiation 6 to 18 months after initial CD4 test. Differences in retention between patients presenting with CD4 counts just above versus just below the 350-cells/μl threshold were estimated using local linear regression models with a data-driven bandwidth and with the algorithm for selecting the bandwidth chosen ex ante. Among patients with CD4 counts close to the 350-cells/μl threshold, having an ART-eligible CD4 count (<350 cells/μl) was associated with higher 12-month retention than not having an ART-eligible CD4 count (50% versus 32%), an intention-to-treat risk difference of 18 percentage points (95% CI 11 to 23; p < 0.001). The decision to start ART was determined by CD4 count for one in four patients (25%) presenting close to the eligibility threshold (95% CI 20% to 31%; p < 0.001). In this subpopulation, having an ART-eligible CD4 count was associated with higher 12-month retention than not having an ART-eligible CD4 count (91% versus 21%), a complier causal risk difference of 70 percentage points (95% CI 42 to 98; p < 0.001). The major limitations of the study are the potential for limited generalizability, the potential for outcome misclassification, and the absence of data on longer-term health outcomes.ConclusionsPatients who were eligible for immediate ART had dramatically higher retention in HIV care than patients who just missed the CD4-count eligibility cutoff. The clinical and population health benefits of offering immediate ART regardless of CD4 count may be larger than suggested by clinical trials.

Project description:Phenobarbital remains one of the most widely used antiepileptic drugs worldwide, yet there are limited data regarding side effects associated with its use in routine clinical care settings in low-income countries. Available data suggests that phenobarbital is as effective as other first-line drugs for treating tonic-clonic seizures, but side effect reports differ widely between high and low-income settings. A better understanding of phenobarbital side effect profile and severity in low-income settings is warranted given its role in efforts to decrease the epilepsy treatment gap. We used the Liverpool adverse events profile (LEAP) to assess side effects in consecutive patients with epilepsy on phenobarbital seeking care in rural Zambia. Data regarding age, gender, medication dose, and medication adherence were also collected. T-tests and Spearman's correlation coefficient were used to assess predictors of LEAP score and medication adherence. Thirty-five patients receiving a mean dose of 2.1mg/kg/day (SD: 2.78 mg/kg/day) of phenobarbital were assessed. All participants reported at least one side effect in the previous four weeks with a median of 6 symptoms (IQR: 4-8) and a mean side effects score of 28/76 (SD: 5.38). Over half reported sleepiness and dizziness. Memory problems and depression were also common (both 46%). Total LAEP score was not associated with age (p=0.88), gender (p=0.17), or phenobarbital dose (p=0.13). Medication adherence was not associated with side effects total score (p=0.56). Rural Zambian adults taking phenobarbital at doses recommended by the World Health Organization report a significant number of side effects. The most common side effects reported were similar to those reported in high-income countries. The significant burden of phenobarbital-associated side effects in this African cohort is in contrast to data from non-randomized clinical trials in China that reported phenobarbital to be well-tolerated with few side effects. Additional investigations regarding phenobarbital side effects during routine care in low income settings is warranted.

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Medication Side Effects and Retention in HIV Treatment: A Regression Discontinuity Study of Tenofovir Implementation in South Africa and Zambia.

Publications

Medication Side Effects and Retention in HIV Treatment: A Regression Discontinuity Study of Tenofovir Implementation in South Africa and Zambia.

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