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Impact of Viral Load Monitoring on Retention and Viral Suppression: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis of South Africa's National Laboratory Cohort.

ABSTRACT: South African guidelines recommend repeat viral load testing within 6 months when human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) viral loads exceed 1,000 copies/mL. We assessed whether South African facilities follow viral load monitoring guidelines and whether guidelines improve HIV-related outcomes, using a regression discontinuity design in a national HIV cohort of 174,574 patients (2013-2015). We assessed whether patients with viral loads just above versus just below 1,000 copies/mL were more likely to receive repeat testing in 6 months, and we compared differences in clinic transfers, retention, and viral suppression. The majority (67%) of patients with viral loads of >1,000 copies/mL did not receive repeat testing within 6 months, and these patients were 8.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 6.2, 9.7) more likely to receive repeat testing compared with ≤1,000 copies/mL. Eligibility for repeat testing (>1,000 copies/mL) was associated with greater 12-month retention (risk difference = 2.9%, 95% CI: 0.6, 5.2) and combined suppression and retention (risk difference = 5.8%, 95% CI: 3.0, 8.6). Patients with viral loads of >1,000 copies/mL who actually received repeat testing were 85.2% more likely to be both retained and virally suppressed at 12 months (95% CI: 35.9, 100.0). Viral load monitoring might improve patient outcomes, but most patients with elevated viral loads do not receive monitoring within recommended timelines.

SUBMITTER: Harlow AF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7705603 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundLoss to follow-up is high among HIV patients not yet receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). Clinical trials have demonstrated the clinical efficacy of early ART; however, these trials may miss an important real-world consequence of providing ART at diagnosis: its impact on retention in care.Methods and findingsWe examined the effect of immediate (versus deferred) ART on retention in care using a regression discontinuity design. The analysis included all patients (N = 11,306) entering clinical HIV care with a first CD4 count between 12 August 2011 and 31 December 2012 in a public-sector HIV care and treatment program in rural South Africa. Patients were assigned to immediate versus deferred ART eligibility, as determined by a CD4 count < 350 cells/μl, per South African national guidelines. Patients referred to pre-ART care were instructed to return every 6 months for CD4 monitoring. Patients initiated on ART were instructed to return at 6 and 12 months post-initiation and annually thereafter for CD4 and viral load monitoring. We assessed retention in HIV care at 12 months, as measured by the presence of a clinic visit, lab test, or ART initiation 6 to 18 months after initial CD4 test. Differences in retention between patients presenting with CD4 counts just above versus just below the 350-cells/μl threshold were estimated using local linear regression models with a data-driven bandwidth and with the algorithm for selecting the bandwidth chosen ex ante. Among patients with CD4 counts close to the 350-cells/μl threshold, having an ART-eligible CD4 count (<350 cells/μl) was associated with higher 12-month retention than not having an ART-eligible CD4 count (50% versus 32%), an intention-to-treat risk difference of 18 percentage points (95% CI 11 to 23; p < 0.001). The decision to start ART was determined by CD4 count for one in four patients (25%) presenting close to the eligibility threshold (95% CI 20% to 31%; p < 0.001). In this subpopulation, having an ART-eligible CD4 count was associated with higher 12-month retention than not having an ART-eligible CD4 count (91% versus 21%), a complier causal risk difference of 70 percentage points (95% CI 42 to 98; p < 0.001). The major limitations of the study are the potential for limited generalizability, the potential for outcome misclassification, and the absence of data on longer-term health outcomes.ConclusionsPatients who were eligible for immediate ART had dramatically higher retention in HIV care than patients who just missed the CD4-count eligibility cutoff. The clinical and population health benefits of offering immediate ART regardless of CD4 count may be larger than suggested by clinical trials.

Project description:Intensive adherence counseling (IAC) is recommended for people living with HIV (PLHIV) with viral load (VL) ≥1,000 copies/ml after ≥6 months of anti-retroviral therapy (ART). We evaluated the effect of IAC on VL suppression and all-cause mortality among PLHIV on first-line ART with VL ≥1,000 copies/ml after ≥6 months of ART in Kampala, Uganda using regression discontinuity design, a quasi-experimental method for effect estimation when interventions depend on a cut-off. PLHIV just above VL ≥1,000 copies/ml cut-off who received ≥3 IAC sessions formed the intervention group while those just below the cut-off who received routine psychosocial support constituted the control group. Primary outcome was repeat VL suppression defined as VL <1,000 copies/ml approximately 9-12 months following initial VL assessment. Secondary outcome was all-cause mortality. We used logistic regression for causal-effect analysis, reported as odds ratio (OR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI). We performed sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of findings to varying bandwidths at the cut-off. We found 3,735 PLHIV were started on ART between Nov 2020 and Nov 2021 of whom 3,199 were included in the analysis (3,085 control, 114 intervention). Within an optimal bandwidth, there were 236 participants (222 control, 14 intervention) with similar demographic and clinical characteristics. Repeat VL suppression was lower in the intervention than in the control group (85.7% versus 98.6%, p = 0.021) while all-cause mortality was similar (0% versus 0.5%, p = 1.000). In multivariable analysis, the odds of repeat VL suppression were 91% lower in the intervention than control group (OR = 0.09; 95% CI, 0.01-0.66). Findings are robust to varying bandwidths around the cut-off. We concluded IAC is ineffective in suppressing VL among PLHIV on first-line ART in Kampala, Uganda. Findings suggest a need to investigate the IAC implementation fidelity for successful translation in practice and the reasons for VL persistence beyond the suppression threshold.

Project description:OBJECTIVE:To determine retention in care and virologic suppression among HIV-infected adolescents and young adults attending an adolescent-friendly clinic compared to those attending the standard pediatric clinic at the same site. DESIGN:Retrospective cohort analysis. SETTING:Government supported, hospital-based antiretroviral clinic in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. PARTICIPANTS:Two hundred forty-one perinatally HIV-infected adolescents and young adults aged 13 to 24 years attending an adolescent-friendly clinic or the standard pediatric clinic from April 2007 to November 2015. INTERVENTION:Attendance in an adolescent-friendly clinic compared to a standard pediatric clinic. OUTCOMES MEASURES:Retention in care defined as one clinic visit or pharmacy refill in the prior 6 months; HIV-1 viral suppression defined as < 400 copies/ml. RESULTS:Overall, among 241 adolescents and young adults, retention was 89% (214/241) and viral suppression was 81% (196/241). Retention was higher among those attending adolescent clinic (95%) versus standard pediatric clinic (85%; OR 3.7; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-11.1; p = 0.018). Multivariable logistic regression adjusted for age at ART initiation, gender, pre-ART CD4 count, months on ART, and tuberculosis history indicated higher odds of retention in adolescents and young adults attending adolescent compared to standard clinic (AOR = 8.5; 95% CI 2.3-32.4; p = 0.002). Viral suppression was higher among adolescents and young adults attending adolescent (91%) versus standard pediatric clinic (80%; OR 2.5; 95% CI 1.1-5.8; p = 0.028). A similar multivariable logistic regression model indicated higher odds of viral suppression in adolescents and young adults attending adolescent versus standard pediatric clinic (AOR = 3.8; 95% CI 1.5-9.7; p = 0.005). CONCLUSION:Adolescents and young adults attending an adolescent-friendly clinic had higher retention in care and viral suppression compared to adolescents attending the standard pediatric clinic. Further studies are needed to prospectively assess the impact of adolescent-friendly services on these outcomes.

Project description:BackgroundSouth Africa's National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS), the only clinical laboratory service in the country's public health sector, is an important resource for monitoring public health programmes.ObjectivesWe describe NHLS data quality, particularly patient demographics among infants, and the effect this has on linking multiple test results to a single patient.MethodsRetrospective descriptive analysis of NHLS data from 1st January 2017-1st September 2020 was performed. A validated probabilistic record-linking algorithm linked multiple results to individual patients in lieu of a unique patient identifier. Paediatric HIV PCR data was used to illustrate the effect on monitoring and evaluating a public health programme. Descriptive statistics including medians, proportions and inter quartile ranges are reported, with Chi-square univariate tests for independence used to determine association between variables.ResultsDuring the period analysed, 485 300 007 tests, 98 217 642 encounters and 35 771 846 patients met criteria for analysis. Overall, 15.80% (n = 15 515 380) of all encounters had a registered national identity (ID) number, 2.11% (n = 2 069 785) were registered without a given name, 63.15% (n = 62 020 107) were registered to women and 32.89% (n = 32 304 329) of all folder numbers were listed as either the patient's date of birth or unknown. For infants tested at < 7 days of age (n = 2 565 329), 0.099% (n = 2 534) had an associated ID number and 48.87% (n = 1 253 620) were registered without a given name. Encounters with a given name were linked to a subsequent encounter 40.78% (n = 14 180 409 of 34 775 617) of the time, significantly more often than the 21.85% (n = 217 660 of 996 229) of encounters registered with a baby-derivative name (p-value < 0.001).ConclusionUnavailability and poor capturing of patient demographics, especially among infants and children, affects the ability to accurately monitor routine health programmes. A unique national patient identifier, other than the national ID number, is urgently required and must be available at birth if South Africa is to accurately monitor programmes such as the Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV.

Project description:IntroductionAiming to reach UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets, nearly all sub-Saharan African countries have expanded antiretroviral therapy (ART) to all people living with HIV (PLWH) (Treat All). Few published data exist on viral load testing and viral suppression under Treat All in this region. We assessed proportions of patients with available viral load test results and who were virally suppressed, as well as factors associated with viral suppression, among PLWH in 10 Rwandan health centres after Treat All implementation.MethodsCross-sectional study during 2018 of adults (≥15 years) engaged in HIV care at 10 Rwandan health centres. Outcomes were being on ART (available ART initiation date in the study database, with no ART discontinuation prior to 1 January 2018), retained on ART (≥2 post-ART health centre visits ≥90 days apart during 2018), available viral load test results (viral load measured in 2018 and available in study database) and virally suppressed (most recent 2018 viral load <200 copies/mL). We used modified Poisson regression models accounting for clustering by health centre to determine factors associated with being virally suppressed.ResultsOf 12,238 patients, 7050 (58%) were female and 1028 (8%) were aged 15 to 24 years. Nearly all patients (11,933; 97%) were on ART, of whom 11,198 (94%) were retained on ART. Among patients retained on ART, 10,200 (91%) had available viral load results; of these 9331 (91%) were virally suppressed. Viral suppression was less likely among patients aged 15 to 24 compared to >49 years (adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR): 0.83, 95% CI 0.76 to 0.90 and those with pre-ART CD4 counts of <200 compared to ≥500 cells/mm3 (aPR: 0.92, 95% CI 0.90 to 0.93). There was no statistically significant difference in viral suppression among patients who entered after Treat All implementation compared to those who enrolled before 2010 (aPR 0.98, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.03).ConclusionsIn this large cohort of Rwandan PLWH receiving HIV care after Treat All implementation, patients in study health centres have surpassed the third UNAIDS 90-90-90 target. To ensure all PLWH fully benefit from ART, additional efforts should focus on improving ART adherence among younger persons.

Project description:BackgroundOutcomes of community antiretroviral therapy (ART) distribution (CAD), in which provider-led ART teams deliver integrated HIV services at health posts in communities, have been mixed in sub-Saharan African countries. CAD outcomes and costs relative to facility-based care have not been reported from Malawi.MethodsWe performed a retrospective cohort study in two Malawian districts (Lilongwe and Chikwawa districts), comparing CAD with facility-based ART care. We selected an equal number of clients in CAD and facility-based care who were aged >13 years, had an undetectable viral load (VL) result in the last year and were stable on first-line ART for ≥1 year. We compared retention in care (alive and no period of ≥60 days without ART) using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression and maintenance of VL suppression (<1,000 copies/mL) during follow-up using logistic regression. We also compared costs (in US$) from the health system and client perspectives for the two models of care. Data were collected in October and November 2020.Results700 ART clients (350 CAD, 350 facility-based) were included. The median age was 43 years (IQR 36-51), median duration on ART was 7 years (IQR 4-9), and 75% were female. Retention in care did not differ significantly between clients in CAD (89.4% retained) and facility-based care (89.3%), p = 0.95. No significant difference in maintenance of VL suppression were observed between CAD and facility-based care (aOR: 1.24, 95% CI: 0.47-3.20, p = 0.70). CAD resulted in slightly higher health system costs than facility-based care: $118/year vs. $108/year per person accessing care; and $133/year vs. $122/year per person retained in care. CAD decreased individual client costs compared to facility-based care: $3.20/year vs. $11.40/year per person accessing care; and $3.60/year vs. $12.90/year per person retained in care.ConclusionClients in provider-led CAD care in Malawi had very good retention in care and VL suppression outcomes, similar to clients receiving facility-based care. While health system costs were somewhat higher with CAD, costs for clients were reduced substantially. More research is needed to understand the impact of other differentiated service delivery models on costs for the health system and clients.

Project description:HIV treatment programs face challenges in identifying patients at risk for loss-to-follow-up and uncontrolled viremia. We applied predictive machine learning algorithms to anonymised, patient-level HIV programmatic data from two districts in South Africa, 2016-2018. We developed patient risk scores for two outcomes: (1) visit attendance ≤ 28 days of the next scheduled clinic visit and (2) suppression of the next HIV viral load (VL). Demographic, clinical, behavioral and laboratory data were investigated in multiple models as predictor variables of attending the next scheduled visit and VL results at the next test. Three classification algorithms (logistical regression, random forest and AdaBoost) were evaluated for building predictive models. Data were randomly sampled on a 70/30 split into a training and test set. The training set included a balanced set of positive and negative examples from which the classification algorithm could learn. The predictor variable data from the unseen test set were given to the model, and each predicted outcome was scored against known outcomes. Finally, we estimated performance metrics for each model in terms of sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value and area under the curve (AUC). In total, 445,636 patients were included in the retention model and 363,977 in the VL model. The predictive metric (AUC) ranged from 0.69 for attendance at the next scheduled visit to 0.76 for VL suppression, suggesting that the model correctly classified whether a scheduled visit would be attended in 2 of 3 patients and whether the VL result at the next test would be suppressed in approximately 3 of 4 patients. Variables that were important predictors of both outcomes included prior late visits, number of prior VL tests, time since their last visit, number of visits on their current regimen, age, and treatment duration. For retention, the number of visits at the current facility and the details of the next appointment date were also predictors, while for VL suppression, other predictors included the range of the previous VL value. Machine learning can identify HIV patients at risk for disengagement and unsuppressed VL. Predictive modeling can improve the targeting of interventions through differentiated models of care before patients disengage from treatment programmes, increasing cost-effectiveness and improving patient outcomes.

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Impact of Viral Load Monitoring on Retention and Viral Suppression: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis of South Africa's National Laboratory Cohort.

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