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Good Things for Those Who Wait: Predictive Modeling Highlights Importance of Delay Discounting for Income Attainment.

ABSTRACT: Income is a primary determinant of social mobility, career progression, and personal happiness. It has been shown to vary with demographic variables like age and education, with more oblique variables such as height, and with behaviors such as delay discounting, i.e., the propensity to devalue future rewards. However, the relative contribution of each these salary-linked variables to income is not known. Further, much of past research has often been underpowered, drawn from populations of convenience, and produced findings that have not always been replicated. Here we tested a large (n = 2,564), heterogeneous sample, and employed a novel analytic approach: using three machine learning algorithms to model the relationship between income and age, gender, height, race, zip code, education, occupation, and discounting. We found that delay discounting is more predictive of income than age, ethnicity, or height. We then used a holdout data set to test the robustness of our findings. We discuss the benefits of our methodological approach, as well as possible explanations and implications for the prominent relationship between delay discounting and income.

SUBMITTER: Hampton WH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6129952 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Good Things for Those Who Wait: Predictive Modeling Highlights Importance of Delay Discounting for Income Attainment.

Hampton William H WH Asadi Nima N Olson Ingrid R IR

Frontiers in psychology 20180903

Income is a primary determinant of social mobility, career progression, and personal happiness. It has been shown to vary with demographic variables like age and education, with more oblique variables such as height, and with behaviors such as delay discounting, i.e., the propensity to devalue future rewards. However, the relative contribution of each these salary-linked variables to income is not known. Further, much of past research has often been underpowered, drawn from populations of conven ...[more]

PMID: 30233449

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Project description:Historically, time preferences are modelled by assuming constant discounting, which implies a constant level of impatience. The prevailing empirical finding, however, is decreasing impatience (DI), meaning that levels of impatience decrease over time. Theoretically, such changes in impatience are crucial to understand behavior and self-control problems. Very few methods exist to measure DI without being restricted to or confounded by certain assumptions about the discounting function or utility curve. One such measure is the recently introduced DI-index, which has been applied to both monetary and health outcomes. The DI-index quantifies the deviation from constant impatience and is flexible enough to capture both increasing and decreasing impatience. In this study, we apply the DI-index to measure impatience for health outcomes in a reference-dependent framework. That is, we measure impatience for both health gains and health losses compared to a reference-point, in individual and societal settings, using a within-subjects design (n = 98). We allowed for both positive and negative discounting, since negative discounting has been observed for losses (i.e. preferring to incur losses earlier rather than later) in earlier work. To capture changes in time inconsistency when subjects show negative discounting (i.e. patience), we modify the DI-index to a decreasing (im)patience (DIP)-index, which can be applied without loss of generality. As in earlier work, we observe large heterogeneity in time consistency; i.e., a mix of decreasing, increasing and constant (im)patience. Across all DIP-indices elicited, increasing impatience was the modal preference for those satisfying impatience, and decreasing patience for those satisfying patience. No systematic differences were observed between health gains and losses or between societal and individual outcomes. This suggests that for health outcomes both patient and impatient individuals assign more importance to time differences delayed further in the future.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Delay discounting refers to the devaluation of a reward given increasing delays to delivery. Similarly, effort discounting refers to the devaluation of a reward given increasing effort required to obtain it. Individuals with substance use disorder show higher rates of delay discounting, exacerbating short-term positive reinforcement at the expense of long-term consequences. This study explores how effort discounting compares to delay discounting behavior among alcohol users as well as how these preferences change between monetary and alcohol rewards. METHODS:A total of 100 participants completed an online survey through Amazon Mechanical Turk. Participant alcohol use was evaluated using DSM-5 and the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test criteria. All participants completed 4 randomized discounting tasks involving delay or effort discounting, in which the reward was money or alcohol. A follow-up experiment (n = 423) added the alcohol purchase task to assess alcohol valuation. RESULTS:Individuals with greater alcohol use disorder (AUD) severity discounted future money and alcohol significantly more than those with less AUD. However, individuals meeting more DSM-5 criteria were only willing to perform more effort for alcohol. The follow-up experiment replicated these findings and demonstrated that individuals with greater AUD also showed an increased valuation of alcohol and alcohol value-mediated effort discounting. CONCLUSIONS:These results suggest that individuals with greater AUD were less willing to wait for money or alcohol. While all participants were willing to work for money regardless of AUD severity, individuals with greater AUD showed increased valuation of alcohol drinks and were willing to exert more effort to obtain alcohol. Together, these results paint a picture of individuals with increased AUD as both more impulsive and willing to work to obtain alcohol, contributing to our understanding of decision making among individuals who abuse substances.

Project description:IntroductionThe competing neurobehavioral decision systems theory conceptualizes addictive behavior, such as cigarette smoking, as arising from the imbalance between stronger impulsive relative to weaker executive decision processes. Working memory trainings may enhance executive decision processes, yet few studies have evaluated its efficacy on substance misuse, with mixed evidence. The current study is the first to evaluate the efficacy of a working memory training on cigarette smoking. We consider the moderating role of delay discounting (DD), or the preference for smaller, immediately available rewards relative to larger, delayed rewards, which has been associated with smoking onset, progression, and resumption. The investigation focuses on individuals living in high-poverty, low-resource environments due high burden of tobacco-related disease they experience.Aims and methodsThe study utilized a subset of data (N = 177 individuals who smoke) generated from a randomized clinical trial that is evaluating the efficacy of working memory training for improving health-related outcomes. Participants were randomized to complete up to 15 sessions of the active, working memory training or a control training.ResultsFindings showed that among participants who were randomized to the working memory condition, those with higher rates of baseline DD demonstrated decreases in cigarette smoking (p = .05). Conversely, individuals randomized to the control condition, who had higher rates of baseline DD exhibited increases in cigarette smoking (p = .025).ConclusionsResults suggest that DD may be an important indicator of working memory training outcomes and a possible approach for effectively targeting treatments in the future.ImplicationsDD is important indicator of working memory training outcomes on cigarette smoking. The findings suggest the possibility to effectively target treatments considering the impact of DD. Given that rates of DD tend to be higher among individuals from low-resource communities, and that computer-based working memory training programs are relatively low-cost and scalable, these findings suggest this approach may have specific utility for adults at heightened risk for cigarette use.This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (Identifier NCT03501706).

Dataset Information

Good Things for Those Who Wait: Predictive Modeling Highlights Importance of Delay Discounting for Income Attainment.

Publications

Good Things for Those Who Wait: Predictive Modeling Highlights Importance of Delay Discounting for Income Attainment.

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