Dataset Information

Different multi-year mean temperature in mid-summer of South China under different 1.5?°C warming scenarios.

ABSTRACT: The Paris Agreement proposed a goal of "pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5?°C above pre-industrial levels". The Community Earth System Model, version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CESM1-CAM5), designed a set of experiments that fulfilled the 1.5?°C warming goal. By analyzing the outputs, this study aims to present projections associated with warming in South China (SC). Interestingly, if the global mean temperature (GMT) overshoots to 1.7?°C above the pre-industrial levels in 2050 and back to 1.5?°C by 2100, additional warming in the SC mid-summer will occur when approaching 2100 compared to that in the scenario under which the GMT stabilizes at an increase of 1.5?°C after the mid-2040 s. In the final 1 to 3 decades of 21^st century in most parts of SC, the multi-year mean warming differences, as well as the difference of extreme hot days, between the two scenarios are significant among the ensembles in mid-summer. Under the scenario in which the GMT overshoots an increase of 1.5?°C, the decrease of mid-level clouds leads to increased downwards solar radiation in the SC and warms the surface, resulting in increases in both outgoing longwave radiation and latent heat flux into the atmosphere and maintenance of the surface balance of the heat budget.

SUBMITTER: Qu X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6138630 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Different multi-year mean temperature in mid-summer of South China under different 1.5 °C warming scenarios.

Qu Xia X Huang Gang G

Scientific reports 20180914 1

The Paris Agreement proposed a goal of "pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels". The Community Earth System Model, version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CESM1-CAM5), designed a set of experiments that fulfilled the 1.5 °C warming goal. By analyzing the outputs, this study aims to present projections associated with warming in South China (SC). Interestingly, if the global mean temperature (GMT) overshoots to 1.7 °C above the ...[more]

PMID: 30218031

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Project description:The differential warming of land and ocean leads to many continental regions in the Northern Hemisphere warming at rates higher than the global mean temperature. Adaptation and conservation efforts will, therefore, benefit from understanding regional consequences of limiting the global mean temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a limit agreed upon at the United Nations Climate Summit in Paris in December 2015. Here, we analyze climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to determine the timing and magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes across the contiguous United States (US) for global warming of 1.5 and 2°C and highlight consensus and uncertainties in model projections and their implications for making decisions. The regional warming rates differ considerably across the contiguous US, but all regions are projected to reach 2°C about 10-20 years before the global mean temperature. Although there is uncertainty in the timing of exactly when the 1.5 and 2°C thresholds will be crossed regionally, over 80% of the models project at least 2°C warming by 2050 for all regions for the high emissions scenario. This threshold-based approach also highlights regional variations in the rate of warming across the US. The fastest warming region in the contiguous US is the Northeast, which is projected to warm by 3°C when global warming reaches 2°C. The signal-to-noise ratio calculations indicate that the regional warming estimates remain outside the envelope of uncertainty throughout the twenty-first century, making them potentially useful to planners. The regional precipitation projections for global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C are uncertain, but the eastern US is projected to experience wetter winters and the Great Plains and the Northwest US are projected to experience drier summers in the future. The impact of different scenarios on regional precipitation projections is negligible throughout the twenty-first century compared to uncertainties associated with internal variability and model diversity.

Dataset Information

Different multi-year mean temperature in mid-summer of South China under different 1.5?°C warming scenarios.

Publications

Different multi-year mean temperature in mid-summer of South China under different 1.5 °C warming scenarios.

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