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Visceral leishmaniasis cyclical trends in Bihar, India - implications for the elimination programme.

ABSTRACT: Background: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a vector-borne disease of public health importance in India, with the highest burden of disease in the states of Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh. The disease is currently targeted for elimination (annual incidence to less than one per 10,000 population) using indoor residual spraying, active case detection and treatment. Historically the disease trend in India has been regarded as cyclical with case resurgence characteristically occurring every 15 years. Understanding this pattern is essential if the VL elimination gains are to be sustained. To better understand the cyclical trends, annual climatic indicators including rainfall, temperature and humidity over time were compared with annual VL case incidence data. Methods: Annual climate data (rainfall, average and maximum temperature and specific humidity) from 1956-2004 were used to identify potential factors influencing VL incidence. Months relevant to the VL life-cycle were identified and defined (Monsoon, Sand-fly Peak, Pre-Sand-fly Peak and Annual) for analysis. The Kruskall-Wallis test was used to determine significant difference between categorical rainfall and VL incidence, whilst univariate negative binomial regression models were used to determine predictors of disease incidence. Results: The negative binomial regression model showed statistically significant associations (p <0.05) for VL incidence and maximum temperature, and average temperature, when considering annual and pre-sand fly peak time periods. No other associations between humidity, rainfall or temperature and VL incidence were detected (all values p >0.05). Conclusion: The VL programme in Bihar has made significant progress in adopting best practices for improved treatment and vector control, with the aim to achieve VL elimination. However, open access granular programme data for indoor residual spray activities and case detection is required to fully understand the role of climate in disease transmission and potential resurgence.

SUBMITTER: Deb RM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6139379 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Despite the overall decrease in visceral leishmaniasis (VL) incidence on the Indian subcontinent, there remain spatiotemporal clusters or 'hotspots' of new cases. The characteristics of these hotspots, underlying transmission dynamics, and their importance for shaping control strategies are not yet fully understood and are investigated in this study for a VL endemic area of ~100,000 inhabitants in Bihar, India between 2007-2015. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:VL incidence (cases/10,000/year) dropped from 12.3 in 2007 to 0.9 in 2015, which is just below the World Health Organizations' threshold for elimination as a public health problem. Clustering of VL was assessed between subvillages (hamlets), using multiple geospatial and (spatio)temporal autocorrelation and hotspot analyses. One to three hotspots were identified each year, often persisting for 1-5 successive years with a modal radius of ~500m. The relative risk of having VL was 5-86 times higher for inhabitants of hotspots, compared to those living outside hotspots. Hotspots harbour significantly more households from the two lowest asset quintiles (as proxy for socio-economic status). Overall, children and young adelescents (5-14 years) have the highest risk for VL, but within hotspots and at the start of outbreaks, older age groups (35+ years) show a comparable high risk. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:This study demonstrates significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity in VL incidence at subdistrict level. The association between poverty and hotspots confirms that VL is a disease of 'the poorest of the poor' and age patterns suggest a potential role of waning immunity as underlying driver of hotspots. The recommended insecticide spraying radius of 500m around detected VL cases corresponds to the modal hotspot radius found in this study. Additional data on immunity and asymptomatic infection, and the development of spatiotemporally explicit transmission models that simulate hotspot dynamics and predict the impact of interventions at the smaller geographical scale will be crucial tools in sustaining elimination.

Project description:Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has been targeted by the WHO for elimination as a public health problem (< 1 case/10,000 people/year) in the Indian sub-continent (ISC) by 2020. Bihar State in India, which accounts for the majority of cases in the ISC, remains a major target for this elimination effort. However, there is considerable spatial, temporal and sub-population variation in occurrence of the disease and the pathway to care, which is largely unexplored and a threat to achieving the target.Data from 6081 suspected VL patients who reported being clinically diagnosed during 2012-2013 across eight districts in Bihar were analysed. Graphical comparisons and Chi-square tests were used to determine differences in the burden of identified cases by season, district, age and sex. Log-linear regression models were fitted to onset (of symptoms)-to-diagnosis and onset-to-treatment waiting times to estimate their associations with age, sex, district and various socio-economic factors (SEFs). Logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with mortality.Comparisons of VL caseloads suggested an annual cycle peaking in January-March. A 17-fold variation in the burden of identified cases across districts and under-representation of young children (0-5 years) relative to age-specific populations in Bihar were observed. Women accounted for a significantly lower proportion of the reported cases than men (41 vs 59%, P?<?0.0001). Age, district of residence, house wall materials, caste, treatment cost, travelling for diagnosis and the number of treatments for symptoms before diagnosis were identified as correlates of waiting times. Mortality was associated with age, district of residence, onset-to-treatment waiting time, treatment duration, cattle ownership and cost of diagnosis.The distribution of VL in Bihar is highly heterogeneous, and reported caseloads and associated mortality vary significantly across different districts, posing different challenges to the elimination campaign. Socio-economic factors are important correlates of these differences, suggesting that elimination will require tailoring to population and sub-population circumstances.

Project description:BackgroundIn the Indian state of Bihar, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a major public health issue that has been aggravated by the rising incidence of new Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections. In endemic areas, the risk of VL infections in patients living with HIV (PLHIV) is higher. It is important to investigate the disease-related knowledge, attitude, and practices (KAP) of PLHIV in Bihar in order to monitor HIV/VL co-infection. Adequate knowledge, a positive attitude, and good practices for VL control are essential to stamp out the disease. This study investigated the KAP towards VL in HIV patients attending antiretroviral therapy (ART) clinic at ICMR-RMRIMS, Patna.MethodsA questionnaire based cross-sectional study was performed among 120 HIV patients aged ≥18 years, to evaluate their KAP regarding visceral leishmaniasis. For the KAP indicators, each correct answer received a score of 1, while unsure and incorrect responses received a score of 0. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression were used for the analysis. Data analysis was performed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) version 27.ResultsThe study population had a male (68.30%) preponderance with a mean age of 37.03 years ± 9.80 years of standard deviation. The majority (93.30%) of the study participants had previously heard about VL. Only 32.10% of those who had heard about VL knew that the disease was transmitted by the sandfly. Most (80.40%) of the study respondents were ignorant of the sandfly breeding grounds. The vast majority (75.90%) had no idea how to recognize sandflies and were unaware of their biting time, leishmaniasis transmission season, and preventive practices. Although PLHIV are vulnerable to VL, only 27.70% of them agreed that VL is a fatal disease if untreated, and 42.90% believed they wear not at risk of developing the disease. Regarding the control methods of sandflies, 28.60% of participants did not use any methods to avoid sandfly bites. The multivariable analysis revealed that occupation and family history were the two independent predictor variables of the knowledge index. Age and gender were significantly associated with attitude towards VL. Participants working as laborers had significantly lesser odds (AOR: 0.248, 95% CI: 0.073-0.844) to follow good preventive practices. There were significantly higher odds of having good practice among participants aged 18-40 years (AOR: 6.866, 95% CI: 1.694-27.834) and those residing in urban areas (AOR: 4.159, 95% CI: 1.317-13.139) than their peers. Overall, 27.7% of respondents were knowledgeable, 41.1% had a positive mindset, and 33.9% had strong VL preventive habits, according to the study.ConclusionThe study determined a remarkable gap in the knowledge attitude and practices towards VL among PLHIV. This underscores the need of augmented health education initiatives for PLHIV in endemic areas for good VL awareness and preventive practices.

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Visceral leishmaniasis cyclical trends in Bihar, India - implications for the elimination programme.

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