Mathematical modelling of the use of insecticide-treated nets for elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in Bihar, India.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Fortunato AK
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8242840 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Background: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a vector-borne disease of public health importance in India, with the highest burden of disease in the states of Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh. The disease is currently targeted for elimination (annual incidence to less than one per 10,000 population) using indoor residual spraying, active case detection and treatment. Historically the disease trend in India has been regarded as cyclical with case resurgence characteristically occurring every 15 years. Understanding this pattern is essential if the VL elimination gains are to be sustained. To better understand the cyclical trends, annual climatic indicators including rainfall, temperature and humidity over time were compared with annual VL case incidence data. Methods: Annual climate data (rainfall, average and maximum temperature and specific humidity) from 1956-2004 were used to identify potential factors influencing VL incidence. Months relevant to the VL life-cycle were identified and defined (Monsoon, Sand-fly Peak, Pre-Sand-fly Peak and Annual) for analysis. The Kruskall-Wallis test was used to determine significant difference between categorical rainfall and VL incidence, whilst univariate negative binomial regression models were used to determine predictors of disease incidence. Results: The negative binomial regression model showed statistically significant associations (p <0.05) for VL incidence and maximum temperature, and average temperature, when considering annual and pre-sand fly peak time periods. No other associations between humidity, rainfall or temperature and VL incidence were detected (all values p >0.05). Conclusion: The VL programme in Bihar has made significant progress in adopting best practices for improved treatment and vector control, with the aim to achieve VL elimination. However, open access granular programme data for indoor residual spray activities and case detection is required to fully understand the role of climate in disease transmission and potential resurgence.
| S-EPMC6139379 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is the most deadly form of the leishmaniasis family of diseases, which affects numerous developing countries. The Indian state of Bihar has the highest prevalence and mortality rate of VL in the world. Insecticide spraying is believed to be an effective vector control program for controlling the spread of VL in Bihar; however, it is expensive and less effective if not implemented systematically. This study develops and analyzes a novel optimization model for VL control in Bihar that identifies an optimal (best possible) allocation of chosen insecticide (dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane [DDT] or deltamethrin) based on the sizes of human and cattle populations in the region. The model maximizes the insecticide-induced sandfly death rate in human and cattle dwellings while staying within the current state budget for VL vector control efforts. The model results suggest that deltamethrin might not be a good replacement for DDT because the insecticide-induced sandfly deaths are 3.72 times more in case of DDT even after 90 days post spray. Different insecticide allocation strategies between the two types of sites (houses and cattle sheds) are suggested based on the state VL-control budget and have a direct implication on VL elimination efforts in a resource-limited region.
| S-EPMC4497882 | biostudies-other
Project description:The effect of insecticide-treated materials on reducing visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is disputable. In Bangladesh, we evaluated the effect of a community-based intervention with insecticide impregnation of existing bed-nets in reducing VL incidence. This intervention reduced VL by 66.5%. Widespread bed-net impregnation with slow-release insecticide may control VL in Bangladesh.
| S-EPMC3713966 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) is a vector-borne disease transmitted by Phlebotomus argentipes. To understand the VL seasonality, annual and monthly variations of VL incidence and its relationship to meteorological variables, the numbers of VL cases reported in Muzaffarpur district, Bihar, India from 1990 to 2008 were studied.Annual VL incidence per 10,000 and the total number of annual VL cases reported at block Community Health Centres (CHC), Public Hospitals or Non-Governmental Organisations (NGO) and the number of VL cases per month from 2000 to 2008 as well as the monthly average of cases for 2000-08, 2000-04 and 2005-08 periods along with the monthly averages of temperature, rainfall and relative humidity were plotted. VL Standardised Incidence Ratios per block were computed for the periods of 1990-1993, 1994-1998, 1999-2004 and 2005-2008 and month wise from 2002 to 2008. A negative binomial regression model was used to evaluate the association between meteorological variables and the number of VL cases per month from 2000 to 2008.A total of 68,358 VL cases were reported in Muzaffarpur district from 1990 to 2008, ranging from 1,2481 in 1992 to 1,161 in 2001. The blocks with the highest number of cases shifted from East (1990-98) to West (1999-2008). Monthly averages of cases ranged from 149 to 309, highest peak in March-April and another one in July. Monthly VL incidence was associated positively to rainfall and negatively to relative humidity and the numbers of VL cases in the previous month.The number of cases reported to the public health sector allowed the describing of the spatial distribution and temporal variations in the Muzaffarpur from 1990 to 2008. However, to assess the actual VL burden, as well as the efficacy of the control measures applied in the district, reporting from private practices and NGOs should be encouraged.
| S-EPMC3048857 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is responsible for substantial morbidity and mortality and current available treatments have many limitations. The ability of VL infection to generate life-long immunity offers promise for the development of a VL vaccine. A VL vaccine candidate has recently completed phase I clinical trials. We constructed a computer simulation model to determine the potential economic value of a VL vaccine in the endemic region of Bihar state, India. Results found a potential vaccine to be cost-effective (and in many cases economically dominant, i.e., saving costs and providing health benefits) throughout a wide range of vaccination costs and vaccine efficacies, and VL risks. Overall, our study strongly supports the continued development of a VL vaccine.
| S-EPMC3284356 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundEffective case identification strategies are fundamental to capturing the remaining visceral leishmaniasis (VL) cases in India. To inform government strategies to reach and sustain elimination benchmarks, this study presents costs of active- and passive- case detection (ACD and PCD) strategies used in India's most VL-endemic state, Bihar, with a focus on programme outcomes stratified by district-level incidence.MethodsExpenditure analysis was complemented by onsite micro-costing to compare the cost of PCD in hospitals alongside index case-based ACD and a combination of blanket (house-to-house) and camp ACD from January to December 2018. From the provider's perspective, a cost analysis evaluated the overall programme cost of each activity, the cost per case detected, and the cost of scaling up ACD.ResultsDuring 2018, index case-based ACD, blanket and camp ACD, and PCD reported 1,497, 131, and 1,983 VL-positive cases at a unit cost of $522.81, $4,186.81, and $246.79, respectively. In high endemic districts, more VL cases were identified through PCD while in meso- and low-endemic districts more cases were identified through ACD. The cost of scaling up ACD to identify 3,000 additional cases ranged from $1.6-4 million, depending on the extent to which blanket and camp ACD was relied upon.ConclusionCost per VL test conducted (rather than VL-positive case identified) may be a better metric estimating unit costs to scale up ACD in Bihar. As more VL cases were identified in meso-and low-endemic districts through ACD than PCD, health authorities in India should consider bolstering ACD in these areas. Blanket and camp ACD identified fewer cases at a higher unit cost than index case-based ACD. However, the value of detecting additional VL cases early outweighs long-term costs for reaching and sustaining VL elimination benchmarks in India.
| S-EPMC7886142 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Despite the overall decrease in visceral leishmaniasis (VL) incidence on the Indian subcontinent, there remain spatiotemporal clusters or 'hotspots' of new cases. The characteristics of these hotspots, underlying transmission dynamics, and their importance for shaping control strategies are not yet fully understood and are investigated in this study for a VL endemic area of ~100,000 inhabitants in Bihar, India between 2007-2015. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:VL incidence (cases/10,000/year) dropped from 12.3 in 2007 to 0.9 in 2015, which is just below the World Health Organizations' threshold for elimination as a public health problem. Clustering of VL was assessed between subvillages (hamlets), using multiple geospatial and (spatio)temporal autocorrelation and hotspot analyses. One to three hotspots were identified each year, often persisting for 1-5 successive years with a modal radius of ~500m. The relative risk of having VL was 5-86 times higher for inhabitants of hotspots, compared to those living outside hotspots. Hotspots harbour significantly more households from the two lowest asset quintiles (as proxy for socio-economic status). Overall, children and young adelescents (5-14 years) have the highest risk for VL, but within hotspots and at the start of outbreaks, older age groups (35+ years) show a comparable high risk. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:This study demonstrates significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity in VL incidence at subdistrict level. The association between poverty and hotspots confirms that VL is a disease of 'the poorest of the poor' and age patterns suggest a potential role of waning immunity as underlying driver of hotspots. The recommended insecticide spraying radius of 500m around detected VL cases corresponds to the modal hotspot radius found in this study. Additional data on immunity and asymptomatic infection, and the development of spatiotemporally explicit transmission models that simulate hotspot dynamics and predict the impact of interventions at the smaller geographical scale will be crucial tools in sustaining elimination.
| S-EPMC6283467 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has been targeted by the WHO for elimination as a public health problem (< 1 case/10,000 people/year) in the Indian sub-continent (ISC) by 2020. Bihar State in India, which accounts for the majority of cases in the ISC, remains a major target for this elimination effort. However, there is considerable spatial, temporal and sub-population variation in occurrence of the disease and the pathway to care, which is largely unexplored and a threat to achieving the target.Data from 6081 suspected VL patients who reported being clinically diagnosed during 2012-2013 across eight districts in Bihar were analysed. Graphical comparisons and Chi-square tests were used to determine differences in the burden of identified cases by season, district, age and sex. Log-linear regression models were fitted to onset (of symptoms)-to-diagnosis and onset-to-treatment waiting times to estimate their associations with age, sex, district and various socio-economic factors (SEFs). Logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with mortality.Comparisons of VL caseloads suggested an annual cycle peaking in January-March. A 17-fold variation in the burden of identified cases across districts and under-representation of young children (0-5 years) relative to age-specific populations in Bihar were observed. Women accounted for a significantly lower proportion of the reported cases than men (41 vs 59%, P?<?0.0001). Age, district of residence, house wall materials, caste, treatment cost, travelling for diagnosis and the number of treatments for symptoms before diagnosis were identified as correlates of waiting times. Mortality was associated with age, district of residence, onset-to-treatment waiting time, treatment duration, cattle ownership and cost of diagnosis.The distribution of VL in Bihar is highly heterogeneous, and reported caseloads and associated mortality vary significantly across different districts, posing different challenges to the elimination campaign. Socio-economic factors are important correlates of these differences, suggesting that elimination will require tailoring to population and sub-population circumstances.
| S-EPMC5719561 | biostudies-other
Project description:Indoor residual spraying (IRS) is used to control visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in India, but it is poorly quality assured. Quality assurance was performed in eight VL endemic districts in Bihar State, India, in 2014. Residual dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) was sampled from walls using Bostik tape discs, and DDT concentrations [grams of active ingredient per square meter (g ai/m(2))] were determined using HPLC. Pre-IRS surveys were performed in three districts, and post-IRS surveys were performed in eight districts. A 20% threshold above and below the target spray of 1.0 g ai/m(2) was defined as "in range." The entomological assessments were made in four districts in IRS and non-IRS villages. Vector densities were measured: pre-IRS and 1 and 3 mo post-IRS. Insecticide susceptibility to 4% DDT and 0.05% deltamethrin WHO-impregnated papers was determined with wild-caught sand flies. The majority (329 of 360, 91.3%) of pre-IRS samples had residual DDT concentrations of <0.1 g ai/m(2). The mean residual concentration of DDT post-IRS was 0.37 g ai/m(2); 84.9% of walls were undersprayed, 7.4% were sprayed in range, and 7.6% were oversprayed. The abundance of sand flies in IRS and non-IRS villages was significantly different at 1 mo post-IRS only. Sand flies were highly resistant to DDT but susceptible to deltamethrin. The Stockholm Convention, ratified by India in 2006, calls for the complete phasing out of DDT as soon as practical, with limited use in the interim where no viable IRS alternatives exist. Given the poor quality of the DDT-based IRS, ready availability of pyrethroids, and susceptibility profile of Indian sand flies, the continued use of DDT in this IRS program is questionable.
| S-EPMC4507214 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesTo investigate the DDT and deltamethrin susceptibility of Phlebotomus argentipes, the vector of Leishmania donovani, responsible for visceral leishmaniasis (VL), in two countries (India and Nepal) with different histories of insecticide exposure.MethodsStandard WHO testing procedures were applied using 4% DDT and 0.05% deltamethrin impregnated papers. The effect of the physiological status (fed and unfed) of females on the outcome of the bioassays was assessed and the optimal time of exposure for deltamethrin was evaluated on a colony population. Field populations from both countries were tested.ResultsFed and unfed females responded in a similar way. For exposure time on field samples 60 min was adopted for both DDT and deltamethrin. In Bihar, knockdown and mortality with DDT was respectively 20 and 43%. In Nepal almost all sand flies were killed, except at the border with Bihar (mortality 62%). With 0.05% deltamethrin, between 96 and 100% of the sand flies were killed in both regions.ConclusionsBased on literature and present data 4% DDT and 0.05% deltamethrin seem to be acceptable discriminating concentrations to separate resistant from susceptible populations. Resistance to DDT was confirmed in Bihar and in a border village of Nepal, but the sand flies were still susceptible in villages more inside Nepal where only synthetic pyrethroids are used for indoor spraying. The low effectiveness of indoor spraying with DDT in Bihar to control VL can be partially explained by this resistance hence other classes of insecticides should be tested. In both countries P. argentipes sand flies were susceptible to deltamethrin.
| S-EPMC2964302 | biostudies-literature