Slaying little dragons: the impact of the Guinea Worm Eradication Program on dracunculiasis disability averted from 1990 to 2016.
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SUBMITTER: Cromwell EA
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6139381 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Dracunculiasis, also known as Guinea worm disease, is targeted to become the second human disease and first parasitic infection to be eradicated. The global Guinea Worm Eradication Program (GWEP), through community-based interventions, reduced the burden of disease from an estimated 3.5 million cases per year in 1986 to only 13 human cases in 2022. Despite progress, in 2012 Guinea worm disease was detected in domesticated dogs and later in domesticated cats and baboons. Without previous development of any Guinea worm therapeutics, diagnostic tests to detect pre-patent Guinea worm infection, or environmental surveillance tools, the emergence of Guinea worm disease in animal hosts-a threat to eradication-motivated an assessment of evidence gaps and research opportunities. This gap analysis informed the refinement of a robust research agenda intended to generate new evidence and identify additional tools for national GWEPs and to better align the global GWEP with a 2030 Guinea worm eradication certification target. This paper outlines the rationale for the development and expansion of the global GWEP Research Agenda and summarizes the results of the gap analysis that was conducted to identify Guinea worm-related research needs and opportunities. We describe five work streams informed by the research gap analysis that underpin the GWEP Research Agenda and address eradication endgame challenges through the employment of a systems-informed One Health approach. We also discuss the infrastructure in place to disseminate new evidence and monitor research results as well as plans for the continual review of evidence and research priorities.
| S-EPMC11376128 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn the absence of a vaccine or pharmacological treatment, prevention and control of Guinea worm disease is dependent on timely identification and containment of cases to interrupt transmission. The Chad Guinea Worm Eradication Program (CGWEP) surveillance system detects and monitors Guinea worm disease in both humans and animals. Although Guinea worm cases in humans has declined, the discovery of canine infections in dogs in Chad has posed a significant challenge to eradication efforts. A foundational information system that supports the surveillance activities with modern data management practices is needed to support continued program efficacy.MethodsWe sought to assess the current CGWEP surveillance and information system to identify gaps and redundancies and propose system improvements. We reviewed documentation, consulted with subject matter experts and stakeholders, inventoried datasets to map data elements and information flow, and mapped data management processes. We used the Information Value Cycle (IVC) and Data-Information System-Context (DISC) frameworks to help understand the information generated and identify gaps.ResultsFindings from this study identified areas for improvement, including the need for consolidation of forms that capture the same demographic variables, which could be accomplished with an electronic data capture system. Further, the mental models (conceptual frameworks) IVC and DISC highlighted the need for more detailed, standardized workflows specifically related to information management.ConclusionsBased on these findings, we proposed a four-phased roadmap for centralizing data systems and transitioning to an electronic data capture system. These included: development of a data governance plan, transition to electronic data entry and centralized data storage, transition to a relational database, and cloud-based integration. The method and outcome of this assessment could be used by other neglected tropical disease programs looking to transition to modern electronic data capture systems.
| S-EPMC8376011 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundOf the three diseases targeted for eradication by WHO, two are so-called Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs)-guinea worm disease (GWD) and yaws. The Guinea Worm Eradication Programme (GWEP) is in its final stages, with only 25 reported in 2016. However, global eradication still requires certification by WHO of the absence of transmission in all countries. We analyze the cost-effectiveness of the GWEP in the end game, when the number of cases is lower and the cost per case is higher than at any other time. Ours is the first economic evaluation of the GWEP since a World Bank study in 1997.MethodsUsing data from the GWEP, we estimate the cost of the implementation, pre-certification and certification stages. We model cost-effectiveness in the period 1986-2030. We compare the GWEP to two alternative scenarios: doing nothing (no intervention since 1986) and control (only surveillance and outbreak response during 2016-2030). We report the cost per case averted, cost per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted and cost per at-risk life year averted. We assess cost-effectiveness against a threshold of about one half GDP per capita (less than US$ 500 in low income countries). All costs are expressed in US$ of 2015.ResultsThe GWEP cost an estimated US$ 11 (95% uncertainty interval, 4.70-12.49) per case averted in the period 1986-2030. The pre-certification and certification phases can cost as much as US$ 0.0041 and US$ 0.0015 per capita per year. The cost per DALY averted by the GWEP relative to doing nothing is estimated at US$ 222 (118-372) in 1986-2030. The GWEP is probably more cost-effective than control by the year 2030. The GWEP is certainly more cost-effective than control if willingness to pay for one year of life lived without the risk of GWD exceeds US$ 0.10.DiscussionEven if economic costs are two times as high as the financial costs estimated for the period to 2020, the GWEP will still be cost-effective relative to doing nothing. Whether the GWEP turns out to be the most cost-effective alternative in the period beyond 2015 depends on the time horizon. When framed in terms of the number of years of life lived without the risk of GWD, a case can be made more easily for finishing the end game, including certification of the absence of transmission.
| S-EPMC5628789 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Guinea worm disease (GWD) is both a neglected tropical disease and an environmentally driven infectious disease. Environmentally driven infectious diseases remain one of the biggest health threats for human welfare in developing countries and the threat is increased by the looming danger of climate change. In this paper we present a multiscale model of GWD that integrates the within-host scale and the between-host scale. The model is used to concurrently examine the interactions between the three organisms that are implicated in natural cases of GWD transmission, the copepod vector, the human host, and the protozoan worm parasite (Dracunculus medinensis), and identify their epidemiological roles. The results of the study (through sensitivity analysis of R0) show that the most efficient elimination strategy for GWD at between-host scale is to give highest priority to copepod vector control by killing the copepods in drinking water (the intermediate host) by applying chemical treatments (e.g., temephos, an organophosphate). This strategy should be complemented by health education to ensure that greater numbers of individuals and communities adopt behavioural practices such as voluntary reporting of GWD cases, prevention of GWD patients from entering drinking water bodies, regular use of water from safe water sources, and, in the absence of such water sources, filtering or boiling water before drinking. Taking into account the fact that there is no drug or vaccine for GWD (interventions which operate at within-host scale), the results of our study show that the development of a drug that kills female worms at within-host scale would have the highest impact at this scale domain with possible population level benefits that include prevention of morbidity and prevention of transmission.
| S-EPMC5541828 | biostudies-other
Project description:ObjectivesTo quantify conflict events and access across countries that remain to be certified free of transmission of Dracunculus medinensis (Guinea worm disease) or require postcertification surveillance as part of the Guinea Worm Eradication Programme (GWEP).Setting and participantsPopulations living in Guinea worm affected areas across seven precertification countries and 13 postcertification sub-Saharan African countries.Outcome measuresThe number of conflict events and rates per 100 000 population, the main types of conflict and actors reported to be responsible for events were summarised and mapped across all countries. Chad and Mali were presented as case studies. Guinea worm information was based on GWEP reports. Conflict data were obtained from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project. Maps were created using ArcGIS V.10.7 and access was measured as regional distance and time to cities.ResultsMore than 980 000 conflict events were reported between 2000 and 2020, with a significant increase since 2018. The highest number and rates were reported in precertification Mali (n=2556; 13.0 per 100 000), South Sudan (n=2143; 19.4), Democratic Republic of Congo (n=7016; 8.1) and postcertification Nigeria (n=6903; 3.4), Central Africa Republic (n=1251; 26.4), Burkina Faso (n=2004; 9.7). Violence against civilians, protests and battles were most frequently reported with several different actors involved including Unidentified Armed Groups and Boko Haram. Chad and Mali had contracting epidemiological and conflict situations with affected regions up to 700 km from the capital or 10 hours to the nearest city.ConclusionsUnderstanding the spatial-temporal patterns of conflict events, identifying hotspots, the actors responsible and their sphere of influence is critical for the GWEP and other public health programmes to develop practical risk assessments, deliver essential health interventions, implement innovative surveillance, determine certification and meet the goals of eradication.
| S-EPMC8344294 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The total number of Guinea worm cases has been reduced by 99.9% since the mid-1980s when the eradication campaign began. Today, the greatest number of cases is reported from Chad. In this report, we use surveillance data collected by the Chad Guinea Worm Eradication Program to describe trends in human epidemiology. In total, 114 human cases were reported during the years 2010-2018, with highest rates of containment (i.e., water contamination prevented) in the years 2013, 2014, 2016, and 2017 (P < 0.0001). Approximately half of case-patients were female, and 65.8% of case-patients were aged 30 years or younger (mean: 26.4 years). About 34.2% of case-patients were farmers. Cases were distributed across many ethnicities, with a plurality of individuals being of the Sara Kaba ethnicity (21.3%). Most cases occurred between the end of June and the end of August and were clustered in the Chari Baguirmi (35.9%) and Moyen Chari regions (30.1%). Cases in the northern Chari River area peaked in April and in August, with no clear temporal pattern in the southern Chari River area. History of travel within Chad was reported in 7.0% of cases, and male case-patients (12.5%) were more likely than female case-patients (1.7%) to have reported a history of travel (P = 0.03). Our findings confirm that human Guinea worm is geographically disperse and rare. Although the proportion of case-patients with travel history is relatively small, this finding highlights the challenge of surveillance in mobile populations in the final stages of the global eradication campaign.
| S-EPMC8274751 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceUnderstanding global variation in firearm mortality rates could guide prevention policies and interventions.ObjectiveTo estimate mortality due to firearm injury deaths from 1990 to 2016 in 195 countries and territories.Design, setting, and participantsThis study used deidentified aggregated data including 13 812 location-years of vital registration data to generate estimates of levels and rates of death by age-sex-year-location. The proportion of suicides in which a firearm was the lethal means was combined with an estimate of per capita gun ownership in a revised proxy measure used to evaluate the relationship between availability or access to firearms and firearm injury deaths.ExposuresFirearm ownership and access.Main outcomes and measuresCause-specific deaths by age, sex, location, and year.ResultsWorldwide, it was estimated that 251 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 195 000-276 000) people died from firearm injuries in 2016, with 6 countries (Brazil, United States, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Guatemala) accounting for 50.5% (95% UI, 42.2%-54.8%) of those deaths. In 1990, there were an estimated 209 000 (95% UI, 172 000 to 235 000) deaths from firearm injuries. Globally, the majority of firearm injury deaths in 2016 were homicides (64.0% [95% UI, 54.2%-68.0%]; absolute value, 161 000 deaths [95% UI, 107 000-182 000]); additionally, 27% were firearm suicide deaths (67 500 [95% UI, 55 400-84 100]) and 9% were unintentional firearm deaths (23 000 [95% UI, 18 200-24 800]). From 1990 to 2016, there was no significant decrease in the estimated global age-standardized firearm homicide rate (-0.2% [95% UI, -0.8% to 0.2%]). Firearm suicide rates decreased globally at an annualized rate of 1.6% (95% UI, 1.1-2.0), but in 124 of 195 countries and territories included in this study, these levels were either constant or significant increases were estimated. There was an annualized decrease of 0.9% (95% UI, 0.5%-1.3%) in the global rate of age-standardized firearm deaths from 1990 to 2016. Aggregate firearm injury deaths in 2016 were highest among persons aged 20 to 24 years (for men, an estimated 34 700 deaths [95% UI, 24 900-39 700] and for women, an estimated 3580 deaths [95% UI, 2810-4210]). Estimates of the number of firearms by country were associated with higher rates of firearm suicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.21) and homicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.35).Conclusions and relevanceThis study estimated between 195 000 and 276 000 firearm injury deaths globally in 2016, the majority of which were firearm homicides. Despite an overall decrease in rates of firearm injury death since 1990, there was variation among countries and across demographic subgroups.
| S-EPMC6143020 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The aim of this work was to quantify the prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) caused by low back pain (LBP) in China from 1990 to 2016. Data from the GBD 2016 (Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016) were used. We analyzed the age-sex-province-specific prevalence and YLDs for LBP of 33 provinces/regions in China. Comparisons were made with the data retrieved from the 1990 GBD study. We estimated that 5.45 × 10 individuals had LBP in 1990, which rose to 6.73 × 10 in 2016. The age-standardized prevalence of LBP decreased from 5.6% (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI]: 4.9%-6.3%) in 1990 to 4.2% (95% UI: 3.8%-4.8%) in 2016. The YLDs for LBP increased from 6.2 million (95% UI: 4.3-8.3 million) in 1990 to 7.7 million (95% UI: 5.4-10.2) in 2016. Age-standardized YLD rate (per 100,000 person) decreased from 637.5 (95% UI: 449.9-848.8) in 1990 to 481.9 (95% UI: 338.6-637.0) in 2016. A female preponderance was observed for prevalence and YLDs. The prevalence and YLDs rate for LBP slightly decreased from 1990 to 2016 in China; however, the total individuals and YLDs increased. Low back pain still ranks as the second leading cause of YLD burden disease in China. Considerable attention should be paid for LBP, especially in the female population.
| S-EPMC6319591 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The Guinea Worm Eradication Program has been extraordinarily successful-in 2019, there were 53 human cases reported, down from the estimated 3.5 million in 1986. Yet the occurrence of Guinea worm in dogs is a challenge to eradication efforts, and underlying questions about transmission dynamics remain. We used routine surveillance data to run negative binomial regressions predicting worm burden among infected dogs in Chad. Of 3,371 infected dogs reported during 2015-2018, 38.5% had multiple worms. A multivariable model showed that the number of dogs in the household was negatively associated with worm burden (adjusted incidence rate ratio [AIRR] = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.93-0.97, P < 0.0001) after adjusting for dog age (AIRR = 0.99, 95% CI: 0.96-1.01, P > 0.1). This could relate to the amount of infective inocula (e.g., contaminated food or water) shared by multiple dogs in a household. Other significant univariable associations with worm burden included dog history of Guinea worm infection (IRR = 1.30, 95% CI: 1.18-1.45) and dog owners who were hunters (IRR = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.62-0.99, P < 0.05) or farmers (IRR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.77-0.90, P < 0.0001). Further analysis showed that the number of dogs in the household was significantly and positively correlated with nearly all other independent variables (e.g., owner occupation: farmer, fisherman, or hunter; dog age, sex, and history of Guinea worm). The associations we identified between worm burden and dogs per household, and dogs per household and owner characteristics should be further investigated with more targeted studies.
| S-EPMC8045642 | biostudies-literature
Project description:A third-stage (infective) larva of Dracunculus medinensis, the causative agent of Guinea worm disease, was recovered from a wild-caught Phrynobatrachus francisci frog in Chad. Although green frogs (Lithobates clamitans) have been experimentally infected with D. medinensis worms, our findings prove that frogs can serve as natural paratenic hosts.
| S-EPMC5088019 | biostudies-literature