Dataset Information

A Multiscale Model for the World's First Parasitic Disease Targeted for Eradication: Guinea Worm Disease.

ABSTRACT: Guinea worm disease (GWD) is both a neglected tropical disease and an environmentally driven infectious disease. Environmentally driven infectious diseases remain one of the biggest health threats for human welfare in developing countries and the threat is increased by the looming danger of climate change. In this paper we present a multiscale model of GWD that integrates the within-host scale and the between-host scale. The model is used to concurrently examine the interactions between the three organisms that are implicated in natural cases of GWD transmission, the copepod vector, the human host, and the protozoan worm parasite (Dracunculus medinensis), and identify their epidemiological roles. The results of the study (through sensitivity analysis of R0) show that the most efficient elimination strategy for GWD at between-host scale is to give highest priority to copepod vector control by killing the copepods in drinking water (the intermediate host) by applying chemical treatments (e.g., temephos, an organophosphate). This strategy should be complemented by health education to ensure that greater numbers of individuals and communities adopt behavioural practices such as voluntary reporting of GWD cases, prevention of GWD patients from entering drinking water bodies, regular use of water from safe water sources, and, in the absence of such water sources, filtering or boiling water before drinking. Taking into account the fact that there is no drug or vaccine for GWD (interventions which operate at within-host scale), the results of our study show that the development of a drug that kills female worms at within-host scale would have the highest impact at this scale domain with possible population level benefits that include prevention of morbidity and prevention of transmission.

SUBMITTER: Netshikweta R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5541828 | biostudies-other | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundOf the three diseases targeted for eradication by WHO, two are so-called Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs)-guinea worm disease (GWD) and yaws. The Guinea Worm Eradication Programme (GWEP) is in its final stages, with only 25 reported in 2016. However, global eradication still requires certification by WHO of the absence of transmission in all countries. We analyze the cost-effectiveness of the GWEP in the end game, when the number of cases is lower and the cost per case is higher than at any other time. Ours is the first economic evaluation of the GWEP since a World Bank study in 1997.MethodsUsing data from the GWEP, we estimate the cost of the implementation, pre-certification and certification stages. We model cost-effectiveness in the period 1986-2030. We compare the GWEP to two alternative scenarios: doing nothing (no intervention since 1986) and control (only surveillance and outbreak response during 2016-2030). We report the cost per case averted, cost per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted and cost per at-risk life year averted. We assess cost-effectiveness against a threshold of about one half GDP per capita (less than US$ 500 in low income countries). All costs are expressed in US$ of 2015.ResultsThe GWEP cost an estimated US$ 11 (95% uncertainty interval, 4.70-12.49) per case averted in the period 1986-2030. The pre-certification and certification phases can cost as much as US$ 0.0041 and US$ 0.0015 per capita per year. The cost per DALY averted by the GWEP relative to doing nothing is estimated at US$ 222 (118-372) in 1986-2030. The GWEP is probably more cost-effective than control by the year 2030. The GWEP is certainly more cost-effective than control if willingness to pay for one year of life lived without the risk of GWD exceeds US$ 0.10.DiscussionEven if economic costs are two times as high as the financial costs estimated for the period to 2020, the GWEP will still be cost-effective relative to doing nothing. Whether the GWEP turns out to be the most cost-effective alternative in the period beyond 2015 depends on the time horizon. When framed in terms of the number of years of life lived without the risk of GWD, a case can be made more easily for finishing the end game, including certification of the absence of transmission.

Project description:BackgroundIn the absence of a vaccine or pharmacological treatment, prevention and control of Guinea worm disease is dependent on timely identification and containment of cases to interrupt transmission. The Chad Guinea Worm Eradication Program (CGWEP) surveillance system detects and monitors Guinea worm disease in both humans and animals. Although Guinea worm cases in humans has declined, the discovery of canine infections in dogs in Chad has posed a significant challenge to eradication efforts. A foundational information system that supports the surveillance activities with modern data management practices is needed to support continued program efficacy.MethodsWe sought to assess the current CGWEP surveillance and information system to identify gaps and redundancies and propose system improvements. We reviewed documentation, consulted with subject matter experts and stakeholders, inventoried datasets to map data elements and information flow, and mapped data management processes. We used the Information Value Cycle (IVC) and Data-Information System-Context (DISC) frameworks to help understand the information generated and identify gaps.ResultsFindings from this study identified areas for improvement, including the need for consolidation of forms that capture the same demographic variables, which could be accomplished with an electronic data capture system. Further, the mental models (conceptual frameworks) IVC and DISC highlighted the need for more detailed, standardized workflows specifically related to information management.ConclusionsBased on these findings, we proposed a four-phased roadmap for centralizing data systems and transitioning to an electronic data capture system. These included: development of a data governance plan, transition to electronic data entry and centralized data storage, transition to a relational database, and cloud-based integration. The method and outcome of this assessment could be used by other neglected tropical disease programs looking to transition to modern electronic data capture systems.

Project description:ObjectivesTo quantify conflict events and access across countries that remain to be certified free of transmission of Dracunculus medinensis (Guinea worm disease) or require postcertification surveillance as part of the Guinea Worm Eradication Programme (GWEP).Setting and participantsPopulations living in Guinea worm affected areas across seven precertification countries and 13 postcertification sub-Saharan African countries.Outcome measuresThe number of conflict events and rates per 100 000 population, the main types of conflict and actors reported to be responsible for events were summarised and mapped across all countries. Chad and Mali were presented as case studies. Guinea worm information was based on GWEP reports. Conflict data were obtained from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project. Maps were created using ArcGIS V.10.7 and access was measured as regional distance and time to cities.ResultsMore than 980 000 conflict events were reported between 2000 and 2020, with a significant increase since 2018. The highest number and rates were reported in precertification Mali (n=2556; 13.0 per 100 000), South Sudan (n=2143; 19.4), Democratic Republic of Congo (n=7016; 8.1) and postcertification Nigeria (n=6903; 3.4), Central Africa Republic (n=1251; 26.4), Burkina Faso (n=2004; 9.7). Violence against civilians, protests and battles were most frequently reported with several different actors involved including Unidentified Armed Groups and Boko Haram. Chad and Mali had contracting epidemiological and conflict situations with affected regions up to 700 km from the capital or 10 hours to the nearest city.ConclusionsUnderstanding the spatial-temporal patterns of conflict events, identifying hotspots, the actors responsible and their sphere of influence is critical for the GWEP and other public health programmes to develop practical risk assessments, deliver essential health interventions, implement innovative surveillance, determine certification and meet the goals of eradication.

Dataset Information

A Multiscale Model for the World's First Parasitic Disease Targeted for Eradication: Guinea Worm Disease.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets