Dataset Information

A Risk Scoring System for the Prediction of Functional Deterioration, Institutionalization, and Mortality Among Medicare Beneficiaries.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:We sought to develop a risk scoring system for predicting functional deterioration, institutionalization, and mortality. Identifying predictors of poor health outcomes informs clinical decision-making, service provision, and policy development to address the needs of persons at greatest risk for poor health outcomes. DESIGN:This is a cohort study with 21,257 community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries 65 yrs and older who participated in the 2001-2008 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey.?Derivation of the model was conducted in 60% of the sample and validated in the remaining 40%. Multinomial logistic regression model generated ? coefficients, which were used to create a risk scoring system. Our outcome was instrumental activity of daily living stage transitions (stable/improved function and functional deterioration), institutionalization, or mortality for 2 yrs of follow-up. RESULTS:A total of 18 factors were identified for functional deterioration (P < 0.05). In the derivation cohort, the likelihood of functional deterioration ranged from 6.27% to 33.51%, risk of institutionalization from 0.07% to 12.13%, and risk of mortality from 2.13% to 31.83%, in comparison with stable/improved function. CONCLUSIONS:A risk scoring system predicting Medicare beneficiaries' risk of functional deterioration, institutionalization, and mortality based on demographic and clinical indicators may feasibly be developed with implications for healthcare delivery.

SUBMITTER: McClintock HF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6148394 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Risk Scoring System for the Prediction of Functional Deterioration, Institutionalization, and Mortality Among Medicare Beneficiaries.

McClintock Heather F HF Kurichi Jibby E JE Kwong Pui L PL Xie Dawei D Stineman Margaret G MG Bogner Hillary R HR

American journal of physical medicine & rehabilitation 20181001 10

<h4>Objective</h4>We sought to develop a risk scoring system for predicting functional deterioration, institutionalization, and mortality. Identifying predictors of poor health outcomes informs clinical decision-making, service provision, and policy development to address the needs of persons at greatest risk for poor health outcomes.<h4>Design</h4>This is a cohort study with 21,257 community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries 65 yrs and older who participated in the 2001-2008 Medicare Current Bene ...[more]

PMID: 29634614

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Project description:BackgroundPersistent uncertainty remains regarding assessments of patient comorbidity based on administrative data for mortality risk adjustment. Some models include comorbid conditions that are associated with improved mortality while other models exclude these so-called paradoxical conditions. The impact of these conditions on patient risk assessments is unknown.ObjectiveTo examine trends in the prevalence of conditions with a paradoxical (protective) relationship with mortality, and the impact of including these conditions on assessments of risk adjusted mortality.MethodsPatients age 65 and older admitted for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery during 1994 through 2005 were identified in Medicare Part A files. Comorbid conditions defined using a common algorithm were categorized as having a paradoxical or non-paradoxical relationship with 30-day mortality, based upon regression coefficients in multivariable logistic regression models.ResultsFor AMI, the proportion of patients with one or more paradoxical condition and one or more non-paradoxical condition increased by 24% and 3% respectively between 1994 and 2005. The odds of death for patients with one-or-more paradoxical comorbidities, relative to patients with no paradoxical comorbidity, declined from 0.69 to 0.54 over the study period. In contrast, the risk associated with having one or more non-paradoxical comorbidities increased from 2.66 to 4.62 for AMI. This pattern was even stronger for CABG. Risk adjustment models that included paradoxical comorbidities found larger improvements, in risk-adjusted mortality for AMI and CABG, over time than models that did not include paradoxical comorbidities.ConclusionThe relationship between individual comorbid conditions and mortality is changing over time, with potential impact on estimates of hospital performance and trends in mortality. Development of a standard approach for handling conditions with a paradoxical relationship to mortality is needed.

Project description:ImportanceA growing proportion of the population is enrolling in Medicare Advantage (MA), which typically offers additional benefits compared with traditional Medicare (TM).ObjectiveTo determine whether frailty and frailty trajectories differ between MA enrollees and TM enrollees.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective cohort study used data from the National Health and Aging Trends Study (2015-2016). Analyses were conducted from August 2023 to March 2024. Participants were community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years and older.ExposureEnrollment in MA vs TM.Main outcomes and measuresFrailty was calculated by a frailty index (FI) (range, 0-1, with higher values indicating greater frailty) and the Fried Frailty Phenotype (FFP) score (range, 0-5, with higher values indicating greater frailty). Physical performance, including Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) score (range, 0-12, with higher values indicating better performance), and gait speed (meters per second) were measured. The primary outcome was the difference in FI and FFP scores from the 2015 baseline assessment to the 2016 follow-up assessment. Secondary outcomes include the 1-year changes in SPPB and gait speed.ResultsThe final cohort consisted of 7063 participants (2775 [23.1%] aged >80 years; 4040 [54.7%] female), representing a sample of the 38.8 million beneficiaries. There were 2583 (35.0%) MA enrollees (13.6 million) and 4480 (65.0%) TM enrollees (25.2 million). At baseline, the FI score was similar between MA and TM enrollees (mean [SD], 0.22 [0.15] vs 0.21 [0.14]), although MA enrollees had worse phenotypic frailty (496 participants [15.2%] vs 811 participants [13.7%] considered frail by FFP score), SPPB scores (mean [SD], 6.91 [3.34] vs 7.21 [3.27]), and gait speed (0.79 [0.24] m/s vs 0.82 [0.23] m/s) than TM enrollees. One year later, there were no differences between MA and TM enrollees in the 1-year change in FI score (mean [SD], 0.016 [0.071] vs 0.014 [0.066]; adjusted mean difference, 0.001 [95% CI, -0.004 to 0.005]), FFP score (mean [SD], 0.017 [1.004] vs 0.007 [0.958]; adjusted mean difference, -0.009 [95% CI, -0.067 to 0.049]), SPPB score (mean [SD], -0.144 [2.064] vs -0.211 [1.968]; adjusted mean difference, 0.068 [95% CI, -0.076 to 0.212]), and gait speed (mean [SD], -0.0160 [0.148] m/s vs -0.007 [0.148] m/s; adjusted mean difference, -0.010 m/s [95% CI, -0.067 to 0.049 m/s]).Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries from 2015, MA enrollees experienced similar declines in frailty over 1 year compared with TM enrollees. Future work should examine whether the specific types of services covered by health insurance can impact frailty and health trajectories for older adults.

Dataset Information

A Risk Scoring System for the Prediction of Functional Deterioration, Institutionalization, and Mortality Among Medicare Beneficiaries.

Publications

A Risk Scoring System for the Prediction of Functional Deterioration, Institutionalization, and Mortality Among Medicare Beneficiaries.

Similar Datasets

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