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Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Functions Underestimate Risk in HIV Infection.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is elevated in HIV-infected individuals, with contributions from both traditional and nontraditional risk factors. The accuracy of established CVD risk prediction functions in HIV is uncertain. We sought to assess the performance of 3 established CVD risk prediction functions in a longitudinal cohort of HIV-infected men. METHODS:The FHS (Framingham Heart Study) functions for hard coronary heart disease (FHS CHD) and atherosclerotic CVD (FHS ASCVD) and the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association ASCVD function were applied to the Partners HIV cohort. Risk scores were calculated between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2008. Outcomes included CHD (myocardial infarction or coronary death) for the FHS CHD function and ASCVD (myocardial infarction, stroke, or coronary death) for the FHS ASCVD and American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association ASCVD functions. We investigated the accuracy of CVD risk prediction for each function when applied to the HIV cohort using comparison of Cox regression coefficients, discrimination, and calibration. RESULTS:The HIV cohort was comprised of 1272 men followed for a median of 4.4 years. There were 78 (6.1%) ASCVD events; the 5-year incidence rate was 16.4 per 1000 person-years. Discrimination was moderate to poor as indicated by the low c statistic (0.68 for FHS CHD, 0.65 for American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association ASCVD, and 0.67 for FHS ASCVD). Observed CVD risk exceeded the predicted risk for each of the functions in most deciles of predicted risk. Calibration, or goodness of fit of the models, was consistently poor, with significant ?2P values for all functions. Recalibration did not significantly improve model fit. CONCLUSIONS:Cardiovascular risk prediction functions developed for use in the general population are inaccurate in HIV infection and systematically underestimate risk in a cohort of HIV-infected men. Development of tailored CVD risk prediction functions incorporating traditional CVD risk factors and HIV-specific factors is likely to result in more accurate risk estimation to guide preventative CVD care.

SUBMITTER: Triant VA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6157923 | biostudies-literature | 2018 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Functions Underestimate Risk in HIV Infection.

Triant Virginia A VA Perez Jeremiah J Regan Susan S Massaro Joseph M JM Meigs James B JB Grinspoon Steven K SK D'Agostino Ralph B RB

Circulation 20180214 21

<h4>Background</h4>Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is elevated in HIV-infected individuals, with contributions from both traditional and nontraditional risk factors. The accuracy of established CVD risk prediction functions in HIV is uncertain. We sought to assess the performance of 3 established CVD risk prediction functions in a longitudinal cohort of HIV-infected men.<h4>Methods</h4>The FHS (Framingham Heart Study) functions for hard coronary heart disease (FHS CHD) and atherosclerotic CVD ...[more]

PMID: 29444987

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Project description:BACKGROUND:The identification and management of cardiovascular risk factors became a major clinical issue among HIV-infected individuals in the post-cART era. As in the past decades the link between acute infections and cardiovascular diseases became clear in the general population, we sorted to investigate the role of severe infections on incident cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) among HIV-infected individuals. METHODS:HIV-infected individuals aged ≥18 years, with no history of CVD were followed from January 2000 to December 2013 until the occurrence of the first CVD event, death or end of study, whichever occurred first. To explore the effect of severe infections on the incidence of CVD we used extended Cox regression models and stratified post-hospitalization follow-up time into three periods: < 3 months, 3-12 months and > 12 months post discharge. RESULTS:One hundred-eighty four persons from 3384 HIV-infected individuals developed incident CVD events during the follow-up (incidence rate = 11.10/1000 PY (95%CI: 9.60-12.82)). Risk of an incident CVD was 4-fold higher at < 3 months post-hospitalization for severe infections (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 4.52; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.46-8.30), after adjusting for sociodemographic and clinical factors as well as comorbidities. This risk remained significant up to one year (3-12 months post hospital discharge aHR 2.39, 95% CI 1.30-4.38). Additionally, non-white race/ethnicity (aHR 1.49, 95% CI 1.10-2.02), age ≥ 60 years (aHR 2.01, 95% CI 1.01-3.97) and hypertension (aHR 1.90, 95% CI 1.38-2.60) were associated with an increased risk of CVD events. High CD4 (≥ 500 cells/mm3: aHR 0.41, 95% CI 0.27-0.62) and cART use (aHR 0.21, 95% CI 0.14-0.31) reduced the risk of CVD events. CONCLUSIONS:We provide evidence for a time-dependent association between severe infection and incident cardiovascular disease in HIV-infected individuals. cART use, and high CD4 count were significantly associated with reduced hazards of CVD.

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Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Functions Underestimate Risk in HIV Infection.

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Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Functions Underestimate Risk in HIV Infection.

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