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Direct likelihood inference on the cause-specific cumulative incidence function: A flexible parametric regression modelling approach.

ABSTRACT: In a competing risks analysis, interest lies in the cause-specific cumulative incidence function (CIF) that can be calculated by either (1) transforming on the cause-specific hazard or (2) through its direct relationship with the subdistribution hazard. We expand on current competing risks methodology from within the flexible parametric survival modelling framework (FPM) and focus on approach (2). This models all cause-specific CIFs simultaneously and is more useful when we look to questions on prognosis. We also extend cure models using a similar approach described by Andersson et al for flexible parametric relative survival models. Using SEER public use colorectal data, we compare and contrast our approach with standard methods such as the Fine & Gray model and show that many useful out-of-sample predictions can be made after modelling the cause-specific CIFs using an FPM approach. Alternative link functions may also be incorporated such as the logit link. Models can also be easily extended for time-dependent effects.

SUBMITTER: Mozumder SI

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6175037 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Direct likelihood inference on the cause-specific cumulative incidence function: A flexible parametric regression modelling approach.

Mozumder Sarwar Islam SI Rutherford Mark M Lambert Paul P

Statistics in medicine 20171002 1

In a competing risks analysis, interest lies in the cause-specific cumulative incidence function (CIF) that can be calculated by either (1) transforming on the cause-specific hazard or (2) through its direct relationship with the subdistribution hazard. We expand on current competing risks methodology from within the flexible parametric survival modelling framework (FPM) and focus on approach (2). This models all cause-specific CIFs simultaneously and is more useful when we look to questions on ...[more]

PMID: 28971494

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Project description:Full quantification of Positron Emission Tomography (PET) requires an arterial input function (AIF) for measurement of certain targets, or using particular radiotracers, or for the quantification of specific outcome measures. The AIF represents the measurement of radiotracer concentrations in the arterial blood plasma over the course of the PET examination. Measurement of the AIF is prone to error as it is a composite measure created from the combination of multiple measurements of different samples with different equipment, each of which can be sources of measurement error. Moreover, its measurement requires a high degree of temporal granularity for early time points, which necessitates a compromise between quality and quantity of recorded samples. For these reasons, it is often desirable to fit models to this data in order to improve its quality before using it for quantification of radiotracer binding in the tissue. The raw observations of radioactivity in arterial blood and plasma samples are derived from radioactive decay, which is measured as a number of recorded counts. Count data have several specific properties, including the fact that they cannot be negative as well as a particular mean-variance relationship. Poisson regression is the most principled modelling strategy for working with count data, as it both incorporates and exploits these properties. However, no previous studies to our knowledge have taken this approach, despite the advantages of greater efficiency and accuracy which result from using the appropriate distributional assumptions. Here, we implement a Poisson regression modelling approach for the AIF as proof-of-concept of its application. We applied both parametric and non-parametric models for the input function curve. We show that a negative binomial distribution is a more appropriate error distribution for handling overdispersion. Furthermore, we extend this approach to a hierarchical non-parametric model which is shown to be highly resilient to missing data. We thus demonstrate that Poisson regression is both feasible and effective when applied to AIF data, and propose that this is a promising strategy for modelling blood count data for PET in future.

Dataset Information

Direct likelihood inference on the cause-specific cumulative incidence function: A flexible parametric regression modelling approach.

Publications

Direct likelihood inference on the cause-specific cumulative incidence function: A flexible parametric regression modelling approach.

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