Dataset Information

Seasonal difference in temporal transferability of an ecological model: near-term predictions of lemming outbreak abundances.

ABSTRACT: Ecological models have been criticized for a lack of validation of their temporal transferability. Here we answer this call by investigating the temporal transferability of a dynamic state-space model developed to estimate season-dependent biotic and climatic predictors of spatial variability in outbreak abundance of the Norwegian lemming. Modelled summer and winter dynamics parametrized by spatial trapping data from one cyclic outbreak were validated with data from a subsequent outbreak. There was a distinct difference in model transferability between seasons. Summer dynamics had good temporal transferability, displaying ecological models' potential to be temporally transferable. However, the winter dynamics transferred poorly. This discrepancy is likely due to a temporal inconsistency in the ability of the climate predictor (i.e. elevation) to reflect the winter conditions affecting lemmings both directly and indirectly. We conclude that there is an urgent need for data and models that yield better predictions of winter processes, in particular in face of the expected rapid climate change in the Arctic.

SUBMITTER: Kleiven EF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6189055 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Seasonal difference in temporal transferability of an ecological model: near-term predictions of lemming outbreak abundances.

Kleiven Eivind Flittie EF Henden John-André JA Ims Rolf Anker RA Yoccoz Nigel Gilles NG

Scientific reports 20181015 1

Ecological models have been criticized for a lack of validation of their temporal transferability. Here we answer this call by investigating the temporal transferability of a dynamic state-space model developed to estimate season-dependent biotic and climatic predictors of spatial variability in outbreak abundance of the Norwegian lemming. Modelled summer and winter dynamics parametrized by spatial trapping data from one cyclic outbreak were validated with data from a subsequent outbreak. There ...[more]

PMID: 30323293

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Project description:In temperate agroecosystems, avian responses in abundance and distribution to landscape attributes may be exacerbated by the coupling of natural seasons and farming practices. We assessed the seasonal roles of field type, field use in the surroundings, and distance from a field to the nearest woodlot on the abundance of seed-eating birds in a 225,000 km2 study area in the Pampas of central Argentina. During spring-summer and autumn of 2011-2013, we randomly selected 392 fields and used transect samples to collect data on abundance and presence of seed-eating bird species. We recorded a total of 11,579 individuals belonging to 15 seed-eating bird species. We used generalized lineal mixed models to relate bird abundance to field type, field use in the surroundings, and distance to the nearest woodlot. In spring-summer (breeding season) most bird responses were associated with their nesting requirements. Species that build their nests in trees, such as eared doves Zenaida auriculata, picazuro pigeons Patagioenas picazuro, and monk parakeets Myiopsitta monachus, were more abundant in fields closer to woodlots, whereas grassland yellow-finches Sicalis luteola, which nest at areas with tall grasses, were more abundant in fields with livestock use patches in the field surroundings. In autumn (non-breeding season), most bird responses were associated with foraging and refuge needs. The high abundance of eared doves in crop stubbles and the association of pigeons at field surroundings dominated by croplands or at crop stubbles surrounded by livestock use fields revealed the intimate association of these species to sites with high availability of food resources. In addition, both picazuro pigeons and spot-winged pigeons Patagioenas maculosa were associated with woodlots, which provide suitable roosting sites. Our results show that in temperate agroecosystems, the relationships between field characteristics and seed-eating bird abundances vary with season.

Dataset Information

Seasonal difference in temporal transferability of an ecological model: near-term predictions of lemming outbreak abundances.

Publications

Seasonal difference in temporal transferability of an ecological model: near-term predictions of lemming outbreak abundances.

Similar Datasets

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