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Using a natural experiment to estimate the electoral consequences of terrorist attacks.

ABSTRACT: This study investigates the consequences of terrorist attacks for political behavior by leveraging a natural experiment in Spain. We study eight attacks against civilians, members of the military, and police officers perpetrated between 1989 and 1997 by Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA), a Basque terrorist organization that was active between 1958 and 2011. We use nationally and regionally representative surveys that were being fielded when the attacks occurred to estimate the causal effect of terrorist violence on individuals' intent to participate in democratic elections as well as on professed support for the incumbent party. We find that both lethal and nonlethal terrorist attacks significantly increase individuals' intent to participate in a future democratic election. The magnitude of this impact is larger when attacks are directed against civilians than when directed against members of the military or the police. We find no evidence that the attacks change support for the incumbent party. These results suggest that terrorist attacks enhance political engagement of citizens.

SUBMITTER: Balcells L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6196542 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Using a natural experiment to estimate the electoral consequences of terrorist attacks.

Balcells Laia L Torrats-Espinosa Gerard G

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20181002 42

This study investigates the consequences of terrorist attacks for political behavior by leveraging a natural experiment in Spain. We study eight attacks against civilians, members of the military, and police officers perpetrated between 1989 and 1997 by Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA), a Basque terrorist organization that was active between 1958 and 2011. We use nationally and regionally representative surveys that were being fielded when the attacks occurred to estimate the causal effect of terrori ...[more]

PMID: 30279183

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Project description:BackgroundThe international terrorism threat urges societies to invest in the planning and organization of psychosocial care. With the aim to contribute to cross-national learning, this study describes the content, target populations and providers of psychosocial care to civilians after terrorist attacks in Norway, France and Belgium.MethodsWe identified and reviewed pre- and post-attack policy documents, guidelines, reports and other relevant grey literature addressing the psychosocial care response to terrorist attacks in Oslo/Utøya, Norway on 22 July 2011; in Paris, France on 13 November 2015; and in Brussels, Belgium on 22 March 2016.ResultsIn Norway, there was a primary care based approach with multidisciplinary crisis teams in the local municipalities. In response to the terrorist attacks, there were proactive follow-up programs within primary care and occupational health services with screenings of target groups throughout a year. In France, there was a national network of specialized emergency psychosocial units primarily consisting of psychiatrists, psychologists and psychiatric nurses organized by the regional health agencies. They provided psychological support the first month including guidance for long-term healthcare, but there were no systematic screening programs after the acute phase. In Belgium, there were psychosocial intervention networks in the local municipalities, yet the acute psychosocial care was coordinated at a federal level. A reception centre was organized to provide acute psychosocial care, but there were no reported public long-term psychosocial care initiatives in response to the attacks.ConclusionsPsychosocial care responses, especially long-term follow-up activities, differed substantially between countries. Models for registration of affected individuals, monitoring of their health and continuous evaluation of countries' psychosocial care provision incorporated in international guidelines may strengthen public health responses to mass-casualty incidents.

Project description:BackgroundWhile several studies have reported the association between 9/11 exposure and cancer risk, cancer survival has not been well studied in the World Trade Center (WTC) exposed population. We examined associations of 9/11-related exposures with mortality in WTC Health Registry enrollees diagnosed with cancer before and after 9/11/2001.Patients and methodsThis is a longitudinal cohort study of 5061 enrollees with a first-ever primary invasive cancer diagnosis between 1995 and 2015 and followed through 2016. Based on the timing of first cancer diagnosis, pre-9/11 (n = 634) and post-9/11 (n = 4427) cancer groups were examined separately. 9/11-related exposures included witnessing traumatic events, injury on 9/11, and 9/11-related post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Associations of exposures with all-cause mortality were examined using Cox proportional hazards regression. In the post-9/11 group, cancer-specific mortality was evaluated by enrollee group (WTC rescue/recovery workers vs. non-workers) using Fine and Gray's proportional sub-distribution hazard models, adjusting for baseline covariates, tumor characteristics, and treatment.ResultsIn the pre-9/11 group, 9/11-related exposures were not associated with all-cause mortality. In the post-9/11 group, increased risk of all-cause mortality was associated with PTSD (adjusted HR = 1.35; 95% CI = 1.11-1.65), but not with injury or witnessing traumatic events. Cancer-specific mortality was not statistically significantly associated with 9/11-related exposures. In rescue/recovery workers, increased non-cancer mortality risk was associated with PTSD (aHR = 2.13, 95% CI = 1.13-4.00) and witnessing ≥3 traumatic events (aHR = 2.00, 95% CI = 1.13-3.55).ConclusionsWe did not observe associations between 9/11-related exposures and cancer-specific mortality. Similar to findings in the non-cancer WTC exposed population, PTSD was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality in cancer patients.

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Using a natural experiment to estimate the electoral consequences of terrorist attacks.

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Using a natural experiment to estimate the electoral consequences of terrorist attacks.

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