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Mapping a Plasmodium transmission spatial suitability index in Solomon Islands: a malaria monitoring and control tool.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Malaria remains a challenge in Solomon Islands, despite government efforts to implement a coordinated control programme. This programme resulted in a dramatic decrease in the number of cases and mortality however, malaria incidence remains high in the three most populated provinces. Anopheles farauti is the primary malaria vector and a better understanding of the spatial patterns parasite transmission is required in order to implement effective control measures. Previous entomological studies provide information on the ecological preferences of An. farauti but this information has never before been gathered and "translated" in useful tools as maps that provide information at both the national level and at the scale of villages, thus enabling local targeted control measures. METHODS:A literature review and consultation with entomology experts were used to determine and select environmental preferences of An. farauti. Remote sensing images were processed to translate these preferences into geolocated information to allow them to be used as the basis for a Transmission Suitability Index (TSI). Validation was developed from independent previous entomological studies with georeferenced locations of An. farauti. Then, TSI was autoscaled to ten classes for mapping. RESULTS:Key environmental preferences for the An. farauti were: distance to coastline, elevation, and availability of water sources. Based on these variables, a model was developed to provide a TSI. This TSI was developed using GIS and remote sensing image processing, resulting in maps and GIS raster layer for all the eight provinces and Honiara City at a 250 m spatial resolution. For a TSI ranging from 0 as not suitable to 13 as most suitable, all the previous collections of An. farauti had mean TSI value between 9 and 11 and were significantly higher than where the vector was searched for and absent. Resulting maps were provided after autoscaling the TSI into ten classes from 0 to 9 for visual clarity. CONCLUSIONS:The TSI model developed here provides useful predictions of likely malaria transmission larval sources based on the environmental preferences of the mosquito, An. farauti. These predictions can provide sufficient lead-time for agencies to target malaria prevention and control measures and can assist with effective deployment of limited resources. As the model is built on the known environmental preferences of An. farauti, the model should be completed and updated as soon as new information is available. Because the model did not include any other malaria transmission factors such as care availability, diagnostic time, treatment, prevention, and entomological parameters other than the ecological preferences neither, our suitability mapping represents the upper bound of transmission areas. The results of this study can now being used as the basis of a malaria monitoring system which has been jointly implemented by the Solomon Islands National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme, the Solomon Islands Meteorological Services and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The TSI model development method can be applied to other regions of the world where this mosquito occurs and could be adapted for other species.

SUBMITTER: Jeanne I

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6198373 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Mapping a Plasmodium transmission spatial suitability index in Solomon Islands: a malaria monitoring and control tool.

Jeanne Isabelle I Chambers Lynda E LE Kazazic Adna A Russell Tanya L TL Bobogare Albino A Bugoro Hugo H Otto Francis F Fafale George G Amjadali Amanda A

Malaria journal 20181022 1

<h4>Background</h4>Malaria remains a challenge in Solomon Islands, despite government efforts to implement a coordinated control programme. This programme resulted in a dramatic decrease in the number of cases and mortality however, malaria incidence remains high in the three most populated provinces. Anopheles farauti is the primary malaria vector and a better understanding of the spatial patterns parasite transmission is required in order to implement effective control measures. Previous entom ...[more]

PMID: 30348161

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Project description:IntroductionSolomon Islands is intensifying national efforts to achieve malaria elimination. A long history of indoor spraying with residual insecticides, combined recently with distribution of long lasting insecticidal nets and artemether-lumefantrine therapy, has been implemented in Solomon Islands. The impact of these interventions on local endemicity of Plasmodium spp. is unknown.MethodsIn 2012, a cross-sectional survey of 3501 residents of all ages was conducted in Ngella, Central Islands Province, Solomon Islands. Prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum, P. vivax, P. ovale and P. malariae was assessed by quantitative PCR (qPCR) and light microscopy (LM). Presence of gametocytes was determined by reverse transcription quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR).ResultsBy qPCR, 468 Plasmodium spp. infections were detected (prevalence = 13.4%; 463 P. vivax, five mixed P. falciparum/P. vivax, no P. ovale or P. malariae) versus 130 by LM (prevalence = 3.7%; 126 P. vivax, three P. falciparum and one P. falciparum/P. vivax). The prevalence of P. vivax infection varied significantly among villages (range 3.0-38.5%, p<0.001) and across age groups (5.3-25.9%, p<0.001). Of 468 P. vivax infections, 72.9% were sub-microscopic, 84.5% afebrile and 60.0% were both sub-microscopic and afebrile. Local residency, low education level of the household head and living in a household with at least one other P. vivax infected individual increased the risk of P. vivax infection. Overall, 23.5% of P. vivax infections had concurrent gametocytaemia. Of all P. vivax positive samples, 29.2% were polyclonal by MS16 and msp1F3 genotyping. All five P. falciparum infections were detected in residents of the same village, carried the same msp2 allele and four were positive for P. falciparum gametocytes.ConclusionP. vivax infection remains endemic in Ngella, with the majority of cases afebrile and below the detection limit of LM. P. falciparum has nearly disappeared, but the risk of re-introductions and outbreaks due to travel to nearby islands with higher malaria endemicity remains.

Project description:BackgroundFollowing the scale-up of intervention efforts, malaria burden has decreased dramatically in Solomon Islands (SI). Submicroscopic and asymptomatic Plasmodium vivax infections are now the major challenge for malaria elimination in this country. Since children have higher risk of contracting malaria, this study investigated the dynamics of Plasmodium spp. infections among children including the associated risk factors of residual P. vivax burden.MethodsAn observational cohort study was conducted among 860 children aged 0.5-12 years in Ngella (Central Islands Province, SI). Children were monitored by active and passive surveillances for Plasmodium spp. infections and illness. Parasites were detected by quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) and genotyped. Comprehensive statistical analyses of P. vivax infection prevalence, molecular force of blood stage infection (molFOB) and infection density were conducted.ResultsPlasmodium vivax infections were common (overall prevalence: 11.9%), whereas Plasmodium falciparum infections were rare (0.3%) but persistent. Although children acquire an average of 1.1 genetically distinct P. vivax blood-stage infections per year, there was significant geographic heterogeneity in the risks of P. vivax infections across Ngella (prevalence: 1.2-47.4%, p < 0.01; molFOB: 0.05-4.6/year, p < 0.01). Malaria incidence was low (IR: 0.05 episodes/year-at-risk). Age and measures of high exposure were the key risk factors for P. vivax infections and disease. Malaria incidence and infection density decreased with age, indicating significant acquisition of immunity. G6PD deficient children (10.8%) that did not receive primaquine treatment had a significantly higher prevalence (aOR: 1.77, p = 0.01) and increased risk of acquiring new bloodstage infections (molFOB aIRR: 1.51, p = 0.03), underscoring the importance of anti-relapse treatment.ConclusionResidual malaria transmission in Ngella exhibits strong heterogeneity and is characterized by a high proportion of submicroscopic and asymptomatic P. vivax infections, alongside sporadic P. falciparum infections. Implementing an appropriate primaquine treatment policy to prevent P. vivax relapses and specific targeting of control interventions to high risk areas will be required to accelerate ongoing control and elimination activities.

Project description:BackgroundThe goal of malaria elimination faces numerous challenges. New tools are required to support the scale up of interventions and improve national malaria programme capacity to conduct detailed surveillance. This study investigates the cost factors influencing the development and implementation of a spatial decision support system (SDSS) for malaria elimination in the two elimination provinces of Isabel and Temotu, Solomon Islands.MethodFinancial and economic costs to develop and implement a SDSS were estimated using the Solomon Islands programme's financial records. Using an ingredients approach, verified by stakeholders and operational reports, total costs for each province were quantified. A budget impact sensitivity analysis was conducted to investigate the influence of variations in standard budgetary components on the costs and to identify potential cost savings.ResultsA total investment of US$ 96,046 (2012 constant dollars) was required to develop and implement the SDSS in two provinces (Temotu Province US$ 49,806 and Isabel Province US$ 46,240). The single largest expense category was for computerized equipment totalling approximately US$ 30,085. Geographical reconnaissance was the most expensive phase of development and implementation, accounting for approximately 62% of total costs. Sensitivity analysis identified different cost factors between the provinces. Reduced equipment costs would deliver a budget saving of approximately 10% in Isabel Province. Combined travel costs represented the greatest influence on the total budget in the more remote Temotu Province.ConclusionThis study provides the first cost analysis of an operational surveillance tool used specifically for malaria elimination in the South-West Pacific. It is demonstrated that the costs of such a decision support system are driven by specialized equipment and travel expenses. Such factors should be closely scrutinized in future programme budgets to ensure maximum efficiencies are gained and available resources are allocated effectively.

Project description:BackgroundTemperature suitability for malaria transmission is a useful predictor variable for spatial models of malaria infection prevalence. Existing continental or global models, however, are synoptic in nature and so do not characterize inter-annual variability in seasonal patterns of temperature suitability, reducing their utility for predicting malaria risk.MethodsA malaria Temperature Suitability Index (TSI) was created by first modeling minimum and maximum air temperature with an eight-day temporal resolution from gap-filled MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daytime and night-time Land Surface Temperature (LST) datasets. An improved version of an existing biological model for malaria temperature suitability was then applied to the resulting temperature information for a 13-year data series. The mechanism underlying this biological model is simulation of emergent mosquito cohorts on a two-hour time-step and tracking of each cohort throughout its life to quantify the impact air temperature has on both mosquito survival and sporozoite development.ResultsThe results of this research consist of 154 monthly raster surfaces that characterize spatiotemporal patterns in TSI across Africa from April 2000 through December 2012 at a 1 km spatial resolution. Generalized TSI patterns were as expected, with consistently high values in equatorial rain forests, seasonally variable values in tropical savannas (wet and dry) and montane areas, and low values in arid, subtropical regions. Comparisons with synoptic approaches demonstrated the additional information available within the dynamic TSI dataset that is lost in equivalent synoptic products derived from long-term monthly averages.ConclusionsThe dynamic TSI dataset presented here provides a new product with far richer spatial and temporal information than any other presently available for Africa. As spatiotemporal malaria modeling endeavors evolve, dynamic predictor variables such as the malaria temperature suitability data developed here will be essential for the rational assessment of changing patterns of malaria risk.

Project description:BackgroundSuccessful reduction of malaria transmission to very low levels has made Isabel Province, Solomon Islands, a target for early elimination by 2014. High malaria transmission in neighbouring provinces and the potential for local asymptomatic infections to cause malaria resurgence highlights the need for sub-national tailoring of surveillance interventions. This study contributes to a situational analysis of malaria in Isabel Province to inform an appropriate surveillance intervention.MethodsA mixed method study was carried out in Isabel Province in late 2009 and early 2010. The quantitative component was a population-based prevalence survey of 8,554 people from 129 villages, which were selected using a spatially stratified sampling approach to achieve uniform geographical coverage of populated areas. Diagnosis was initially based on Giemsa-stained blood slides followed by molecular analysis using polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Local perceptions and practices related to management of fever and treatment-seeking that would impact a surveillance intervention were also explored using qualitative research methods.ResultsApproximately 33% (8,554/26,221) of the population of Isabel Province participated in the survey. Only one subject was found to be infected with Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) (96 parasites/?L) using Giemsa-stained blood films, giving a prevalence of 0.01%. PCR analysis detected a further 13 cases, giving an estimated malaria prevalence of 0.51%. There was a wide geographical distribution of infected subjects. None reported having travelled outside Isabel Province in the previous three months suggesting low-level indigenous malaria transmission. The qualitative findings provide warning signs that the current community vigilance approach to surveillance will not be sufficient to achieve elimination. In addition, fever severity is being used by individuals as an indicator for malaria and a trigger for timely treatment-seeking and case reporting. In light of the finding of a low prevalence of parasitaemia, the current surveillance system may not be able to detect and prevent malaria resurgence.ConclusionAn adaption to the malERA surveillance framework is proposed and recommendations made for a tailored provincial-level surveillance intervention, which will be essential to achieve elimination, and to maintain this status while the rest of the country catches up.

Project description:BackgroundA high-resolution surveillance-response system has been developed within a geographic information system (GIS) to support malaria elimination in the Pacific. This paper examines the application of a GIS-based spatial decision support system (SDSS) to automatically locate and map the distribution of confirmed malaria cases, rapidly classify active transmission foci, and guide targeted responses in elimination zones.MethodsCustomized SDSS-based surveillance-response systems were developed in the three elimination provinces of Isabel and Temotu, Solomon Islands and Tafea, Vanuatu. Confirmed malaria cases were reported to provincial malaria offices upon diagnosis and updated into the respective SDSS as part of routine operations throughout 2011. Cases were automatically mapped by household within the SDSS using existing geographical reconnaissance (GR) data. GIS queries were integrated into the SDSS-framework to automatically classify and map transmission foci based on the spatiotemporal distribution of cases, highlight current areas of interest (AOI) regions to conduct foci-specific targeted response, and extract supporting household and population data. GIS simulations were run to detect AOIs triggered throughout 2011 in each elimination province and conduct a sensitivity analysis to calculate the proportion of positive cases, households and population highlighted in AOI regions of a varying geographic radius.ResultsA total of 183 confirmed cases were reported and mapped using the SDSS throughout 2011 and used to describe transmission within a target population of 90,354. Automatic AOI regions were also generated within each provincial SDSS identifying geographic areas to conduct response. 82.5% of confirmed cases were automatically geo-referenced and mapped at the household level, with 100% of remaining cases geo-referenced at a village level. Data from the AOI analysis indicated different stages of progress in each province, highlighting operational implications with regards to strategies for implementing surveillance-response in consideration of the spatiotemporal nature of cases as well as logistical and financial constraints of the respective programmes.ConclusionsGeospatial systems developed to guide Pacific Island malaria elimination demonstrate the application of a high resolution SDSS-based approach to support key elements of surveillance-response including understanding epidemiological variation within target areas, implementing appropriate foci-specific targeted response, and consideration of logistical constraints and costs.

Dataset Information

Mapping a Plasmodium transmission spatial suitability index in Solomon Islands: a malaria monitoring and control tool.

Publications

Mapping a Plasmodium transmission spatial suitability index in Solomon Islands: a malaria monitoring and control tool.

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